Paper on the difference between rapidly intensifying storms and those that don’t intensify as fast released online in Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Summary: The main model that forecasters use to predict what a hurricane will do is the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model. Because we cannot measure what is currently happening in the hurricane exactly, we run the model many times at once with different measurements to get an idea of the different forecasts that …

Paper on how tropical storms do (or don’t) organize thunderstorms around the center to intensify published in Monthly Weather Review

It has been believed that tropical cyclones are likely to strengthen when strong thunderstorms (called convection) almost completely surround the storm's center. In order to better understand what prevents this convection from surrounding the storm’s center in some storms (but not others), this study analyzes data collected on NOAA aircraft flights in two storms that …

HRD Debrief for missions into Hurricanes Irma, Jose, and Maria – Part 1 – 4 October 2017

HRD researchers discussed the results from the 8 P-3 and 8 G-IV missions into Hurricane Irma (3-8 September 2017). The agenda for the discussion was: Missions Overview (Reasor) Science Discussions 20170903H1 TDR (Jon Zawislak) 20170904H1 TDR (Rob Rogers) 20170904H2 TDR (Jon Zawislak) 20170905H1 TDR (Rob Rogers) 20170905H2 TDR (Jon Zawislak) 20170908H1 TDR (Jon Zawislak) 20170908H2 …

HRD Seminar – Dr. David Ryglicki, Naval Research Laboratory – 17 August 2017

Dr. Ryglicki presented a seminar titled  “The Kinematics of Rapidly Intensifying Hurricanes in Moderate Vertical Wind Shear”. Abstract: A select group of tropical cyclones (TCs) which unexpectedly undergo rapid intensification in moderate vertical wind shear are identified, analyzed, and modeled. Geostationary satellite and reanalysis data are used to identify features and environmental parameters of these TCs. …

HRD Debrief for missions into Hurricane Franklin – 15 August 2017

HRD researchers discussed the results from the two P-3 and one Global Hawk mission into Hurricane Franklin (8-9 August 2017). The agenda for the discussion was: Mission Overview (Reasor) Science Discussions 20170808H1 (Zawislak) 20170809H1 (Rogers) EMC input (Sippel) Additional field program issues Slides from the debrief are available at: ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/blog/meetings/2017/HFP/franklin17_debrief_main.pptx  

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of August 2017

August’s science meeting consisted of 5 presentations: Jason Sippel: "Examining impact of recon in operational HWRF" Steve Diaz: "Demonstration of solver-independent regridding operation for a moving hurricane nest" Joe Cione: "Infrared Sea Surface Temperature Measurements from Hurricane Edouard (2014) using GPS dropsondes" John Kaplan: "Hurricane Franklin (2017): A Preliminary Look from a Global Hawk-P3 Perspective" …

Paper on how vertical wind shear impacts surface winds in hurricanes published in Monthly Weather Review

Summary: Scatterometers are instruments on aircraft or satellites that are used to measure wind speed and direction at the ocean surface. In this follow-up to a 2016 study, the surface wind in tropical cyclones around the world are studied using a large set of measurements from 2000 to 2011. The impact of tropical cyclone intensity, …

HRD Scientists brief NOAA Aircraft Operations Center personnel on IFEX 2017, Lakeland, FL – 19 July 2017

Intensity Forecast Experiment (IFEX) Program Director Paul Reasor and HRD Director Frank Marks briefed the Aircraft Operations Center (AOC) personnel at their brand new facility at Lakeland Linder Regional Airport on IFEX plans for 2017 and Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project progress, respectively. The two presentations are available in a .zip archive on the anonymous ftp …

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of July 2017

July’s science meeting consisted of 6 presentations: Steve Guimond (NASA) - "Reviving the Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler (IWRAP) for Hurricane Research: A Case Study of Hurricane Rita (2005)" Mu-Chieh (Laura) Ko - "Preliminary Review – HWRF-B 2016 Retrospective Dataset" Robert Rogers - "The Challenge of Intensity Forecasting in Moderate Shear" Emily Paltz (Hollings …