Modeling Michael: Using NOAA’s HFV3 to predict rapid intensification of Hurricane Michael

Reposted from https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/news/modeling-michael/ In a recently published study, AOML hurricane researchers used multiple computer model forecasts to gain a better understanding of how Hurricane Michael rapidly intensified to 162 mph before making landfall in the panhandle of Florida. Hurricane Michael is an interesting  case as it intensified despite strong upper-level wind shear, which usually weakens …

Paper on how Hurricane Michael (2018) intensified rapidly in the Gulf of Mexico released online in Monthly Weather Review

Weather forecasters use computer models to make predictions. These forecasts of the future depend on knowing what is happening now, what we call initial conditions. However, we can't measure the weather at every location on earth all the time, so we don't know exactly what these initial conditions are. Therefore, we run forecast models many …

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of March 2020

March’s science meeting consisted of four presentations: Lakemariam Worku: Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall and Convection over the Maritime Continent (the MC) Using TMPA and ISCCP Kathryn Sellwood: Calculating Shear from Dropsondes Michael Fischer: Tropical Cyclone Radar Archive of Dual-Doppler Analyses with Recentering (TC-RADAR) John Kaplan: Preliminary analysis of the impact of wind structure and eye predictors …

Paper on how tropical cyclones can intensify in high shear released online in Monthly Weather Review

When the wind within about 150 miles of the center of a tropical cyclone (what we call the near environment) is very different at the bottom and the top of the storm (what we call wind shear), the storm usually weakens, especially if the storm is already weak. However, sometimes this doesn't happen, and the …

HRD Debrief for missions into 2019 Sheared Storms – 18 February 2020

HRD researchers discussed the results from the 14 P-3 and 8 G-IV missions into sheared Hurricanes Barry, AL02 (10–12 July 2019), Humberto, AL09 (13–16 September 2019 ), Jerry, AL10 (18–22 September 2019), and Lorenzo, AL13 (26 – 29 September 2019). The format of the debrief was different than in the past. A brief overview is …

Paper on wind asymmetries in tropical cyclones as seen by satellite published in Remote Sensing

Read the study at https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/11/22/2604.

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of February 2020

February’s science meeting consisted of seven presentations: Kyle Ahern: Simulated Boundary Layer Structure in Hurricane Earl (2010) After Peak Intensity Udai Shimada: Self-Introduction and Research Plans at HRD Levi Cowan: Comparison of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Interactions with Upper Tropospheric Jets During Intensification and Weakening Sim Aberson: Multiple vortices as seen in Tropical Cyclone Rina on …

HRD Debrief for missions into Hurricane Dorian – 30 January 2020

HRD researchers discussed the results from the 15 P-3 and 10 G-IV missions into Hurricane Dorian, AL05 (26 August - 5 September 2019). The format of the debrief was different than in the past. A brief overview is provided of the storm and missions, followed by a series of 8 short presentations discussing planned and …

HRD at the American Meteorological Society Centennial Meeting

HRD scientists recently attended the 100th American Meteorological Society Meeting in Boston. There, they presented 33 oral presentations and 10 posters. Left to right: Mu-Chich Ko, Andrew Kren, Joe Cione, Karina Apodaca, Michael Mueller, Sarah Ditchek, Steve Diaz, Jonathan Zawislak, Andy Hazelton, Lisa Bucci, Frank Marks, Shirley Murillo, Xuejin Zhang, John Cortinas, Eric Uhlhorn, and …

Paper on the intensification of tropical cyclones in wind shear published in Mausam

Hurricanes are fed by energy from the warm ocean. The center of a hurricane is surrounded by tall clouds, called cumulus clouds, that produce the heat needed to keep the spin, what we call vorticity, in the hurricanes going. When there are a lot of cumulus clouds around the hurricane's center, the hurricane spins more rapidly. However, …