Study on how weak, disorganized tropical cyclones become upright allowing for intensification published in the Journal of Geophysical Research

This study shows how weak, disorganized tropical cyclones that have different center locations with height (misalignment) can develop a vertically aligned structure. The ability to predict whether and when a tropical cyclone will become aligned is important for intensity change forecasts, as storms can intensify quickly after achieving it. This study will help improve forecasts …

Study showing how to improve forecasts of rapid intensification released online in Monthly Weather Review

Accurately predicting when a tropical cyclone will begin a quick and sudden increase in intensity (rapid intensification or RI) is a significant challenge. In this study, we analyzed a group (or ensemble) of computer model forecasts of a real RI event to better understand it. To accurately forecast tropical cyclone intensity and when RI will …

Study relating low-level wind flowing into the centers of tropical cyclones and intensification published in the Journal of Geophysical Research

This study uses the observations from Hurricane Hunter aircraft to investigate the inflow of warm, moist air into the tropical cyclone (TC) center that fuels the circulation.  Specifically, the inflow angle is the difference between the wind direction and the direction of a circular wind that does not flow into the center.  The study found …

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of June 2022

June's  science meeting consisted of seven presentations: Stanley Goldenberg: NOAA’s May Outlook for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Methodology & Forecast Bachir Annane: A Catastrophe Model for Assessing Wind and Flood Hazard Risk for Florida Kathryn Sellwood: Assimilation of Coyote sUAS Observations Using Operational HWRF in Hurricane Maria William Ramstrom: Moving Nest Implementation for NOAA's …

NOAA Hurricane Field Program begins with flights into Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 in the Tropical Atlantic

The NOAA flight season began early this year with an operational flight into a system, known as Potential Tropical Cyclone 2, that may soon develop into a tropical depression east of the Windward Islands. The plan for the season was recently released and is available online at https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/2022-hurricane-field-program/, and a kickoff meeting to discuss plans …

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of April 2022

April's science meeting consisted of two presentations: Sim Aberson: The polygonal eyewall of Hurricane Fabian Robert Rogers: Characteristics of Aligning Weak Tropical Cyclones  Copies of the four presentations are available here.

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of March 2022

March’s science meeting consisted of four presentations by students of our collaborator Prof. Haiyan Zhang at Florida International University: Xinxi Wang: Relating Tropical Cyclone Intensification Rate and Inner-Core Features Using 16-yr TMI data Adrian Lopez: Defining Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Using Bootstrapping Extreme Threshold Estimation  Oscar Guzman: Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Magnitude at Different …

Latest AOML Keynotes released

Recap of the 2021 hurricane season, recent research results on wind shear direction and intensity change, Saildrones, and other news on HRD employees. Check it out here. For more information, contact aoml.communications@noaa.gov.

HRD scientists participate in the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2021

The American Geophysical Union is holding their annual Fall Meeting 13-17 December in New Orleans, and also online. Every year, the Fall Meeting unites >25,000 attendees from 100+ countries in the Earth and space sciences community to discuss findings, connect scientists from around the world, advance the profession and connect over passion for the impact …

AOML awards ceremony highlights HRD award winners

Congratulations to everyone!