HRD Monthly Science Meeting of March 2018

March’s science meeting consisted of four presentations: Josh Wadler, UM/RSMAS: Downdrafts and the Evolution of Boundary Layer Thermodynamics in Hurricane Earl (2010) Before and During Rapid Intensification Ghassan Alaka: Evaluation of Track Spread in Hurricane Joaquin (2015) Heather Holbach: Dropsonde Wind Speed Comparison to SFMR at Coyote Flight Levels Kelly Ryan-Poterjoy: Coyote Thermodynamic Verification using …

NOAA Hurricane Research overview for WMO Region IV Training Workshop, NHC – 26 February 2018

To demonstrate how tropical cyclone research is used to improve forecast guidance HRD researchers Drs. Frank Marks, Robert Rogers, and Jason Sippel presented summaries of “NOAA’s Hurricane Research”, “Aircraft Observations of Tropical Cyclones”, and  "Tropical Cyclone Modeling and Data Assimilation"  to the World Meteorological Organization Regional Association IV Training Workshop held in the National Hurricane …

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of February 2018

February’s science meeting consisted of three presentations: Rob Rogers: The relationship between tropical cyclone structure and intensification in moderate vertical shear Jon Zawislak: 2018 NOAA/AOML/HRD Hurricane Field Program Intensity Forecast Experiment (IFEX): Overview of Experiment Design Pete Black: Emerging Airborne Technologies for improved TC Track and Intensity Forecasting: Preliminary Observations from SHOUT and EPOCH All the …

Paper on updrafts in hurricanes and how they relate to intensity changes released online in Monthly Weather Review

Summary:  NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have a Doppler radar that measures wind through the entire hurricane.  We analyzed these radar data collected in many hurricanes since 2004.  Previous studies found that the location of the fastest upward moving air (what we call updrafts) may tell us how strong the storm will be a few hours …

Paper on the difference between rapidly intensifying storms and those that don’t intensify as fast published in Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Summary: The main model that forecasters use to predict what a hurricane will do is the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model. Because we cannot measure what is currently happening in the hurricane exactly, we run the model many times at once with different measurements to get an idea of the different forecasts that …

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of December 2017

December’s science meeting consisted of three presentations: Dave Nolan:  Preliminary results on the sources of condensate in the hurricane outflow layer Jun Zhang:  Observations of gravity waves in tropical cyclones Leon Nguyen:  Assessing tropical cyclone intensity change in moderate vertical wind shear using dropsondes: thermodynamics of the lower troposphere All the presentations are available on …

Paper on how tropical storms do (or don’t) organize thunderstorms around the center to intensify published in Monthly Weather Review

It has been believed that tropical cyclones are likely to strengthen when strong thunderstorms (called convection) almost completely surround the storm's center. In order to better understand what prevents this convection from surrounding the storm’s center in some storms (but not others), this study analyzes data collected on NOAA aircraft flights in two storms that …

HRD Debrief for missions into Hurricanes Irma, Jose, and Maria – Part 1 – 4 October 2017

HRD researchers discussed the results from the 8 P-3 and 8 G-IV missions into Hurricane Irma (3-8 September 2017). The agenda for the discussion was: Missions Overview (Reasor) Science Discussions 20170903H1 TDR (Jon Zawislak) 20170904H1 TDR (Rob Rogers) 20170904H2 TDR (Jon Zawislak) 20170905H1 TDR (Rob Rogers) 20170905H2 TDR (Jon Zawislak) 20170908H1 TDR (Jon Zawislak) 20170908H2 …

HRD Seminar – Dr. David Ryglicki, Naval Research Laboratory – 17 August 2017

Dr. Ryglicki presented a seminar titled  “The Kinematics of Rapidly Intensifying Hurricanes in Moderate Vertical Wind Shear”. Abstract: A select group of tropical cyclones (TCs) which unexpectedly undergo rapid intensification in moderate vertical wind shear are identified, analyzed, and modeled. Geostationary satellite and reanalysis data are used to identify features and environmental parameters of these TCs. …

HRD Debrief for missions into Hurricane Franklin – 15 August 2017

HRD researchers discussed the results from the two P-3 and one Global Hawk mission into Hurricane Franklin (8-9 August 2017). The agenda for the discussion was: Mission Overview (Reasor) Science Discussions 20170808H1 (Zawislak) 20170809H1 (Rogers) EMC input (Sippel) Additional field program issues Slides from the debrief are available at: ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/blog/meetings/2017/HFP/franklin17_debrief_main.pptx