Hurricane Field Program Update — Friday, June 5, 2020, 10pm EDT

Tropical Storm Cristobal became the Atlantic Hurricane Season’s third named storm and has already produced damaging and deadly flooding in Central America. The system’s center emerged over water and quickly returned to tropical storm strength. Due to the storm’s location and characteristics, preparations were swiftly coordinated with the National Hurricane Center, Environmental Modeling Center, and … Continue reading Hurricane Field Program Update — Friday, June 5, 2020, 10pm EDT

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of May 2020

May's science meeting consisted of six presentations: Michael Fischer: An examination of local shear, vortex tilt, and tropical cyclone intensity change using airborne radar observations Erica Bower: Towards an Automated Approach to Analyzing Extreme Precipitation and Tropical Cyclones Hua Leighton: Ice Particle Size Distributions from Composites of Microphysics Observations Collected in Tropical Cyclones Laura Ko: … Continue reading HRD Monthly Science Meeting of May 2020

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of April 2020

April's science meeting consisted of four presentations: Xiaomin Chen -  "Evaluation of PBL schemes using a simple method of large-eddy simulations" Nicholas Foukal (WHOI) -  "Air-sea fluxes in the North Atlantic during extreme wind conditions" Andrew Hazelton - "Exploration of the Early Track and Intensity Uncertainty in Hurricane Dorian Using a HAFS Ensemble"  Frank Marks - "Pioneering … Continue reading HRD Monthly Science Meeting of April 2020

Modeling Michael: Using NOAA’s HFV3 to predict rapid intensification of Hurricane Michael

Reposted from https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/news/modeling-michael/ In a recently published study, AOML hurricane researchers used multiple computer model forecasts to gain a better understanding of how Hurricane Michael rapidly intensified to 162 mph before making landfall in the panhandle of Florida. Hurricane Michael is an interesting  case as it intensified despite strong upper-level wind shear, which usually weakens … Continue reading Modeling Michael: Using NOAA’s HFV3 to predict rapid intensification of Hurricane Michael

Paper on how Hurricane Michael (2018) intensified rapidly in the Gulf of Mexico released online in Monthly Weather Review

Weather forecasters use computer models to make predictions. These forecasts of the future depend on knowing what is happening now, what we call initial conditions. However, we can't measure the weather at every location on earth all the time, so we don't know exactly what these initial conditions are. Therefore, we run forecast models many … Continue reading Paper on how Hurricane Michael (2018) intensified rapidly in the Gulf of Mexico released online in Monthly Weather Review

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of March 2020

March’s science meeting consisted of four presentations: Lakemariam Worku: Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall and Convection over the Maritime Continent (the MC) Using TMPA and ISCCP Kathryn Sellwood: Calculating Shear from Dropsondes Michael Fischer: Tropical Cyclone Radar Archive of Dual-Doppler Analyses with Recentering (TC-RADAR) John Kaplan: Preliminary analysis of the impact of wind structure and eye predictors … Continue reading HRD Monthly Science Meeting of March 2020

Paper on how tropical cyclones can intensify in high shear released online in Monthly Weather Review

When the wind within about 150 miles of the center of a tropical cyclone (what we call the near environment) is very different at the bottom and the top of the storm (what we call wind shear), the storm usually weakens, especially if the storm is already weak. However, sometimes this doesn't happen, and the … Continue reading Paper on how tropical cyclones can intensify in high shear released online in Monthly Weather Review

HRD Debrief for missions into 2019 Sheared Storms – 18 February 2020

HRD researchers discussed the results from the 14 P-3 and 8 G-IV missions into sheared Hurricanes Barry, AL02 (10–12 July 2019), Humberto, AL09 (13–16 September 2019 ), Jerry, AL10 (18–22 September 2019), and Lorenzo, AL13 (26 – 29 September 2019). The format of the debrief was different than in the past. A brief overview is … Continue reading HRD Debrief for missions into 2019 Sheared Storms – 18 February 2020

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of February 2020

February’s science meeting consisted of seven presentations: Kyle Ahern: Simulated Boundary Layer Structure in Hurricane Earl (2010) After Peak Intensity Udai Shimada: Self-Introduction and Research Plans at HRD Levi Cowan: Comparison of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Interactions with Upper Tropospheric Jets During Intensification and Weakening Sim Aberson: Multiple vortices as seen in Tropical Cyclone Rina on … Continue reading HRD Monthly Science Meeting of February 2020