Paper investigating the effects of grid resolution, horizontal turbulence models, and horizontal mixing length on real hurricane forecasts published online in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Physical parameterizations in computer models need to consider the unique structures of tropical cyclones. The study helps us understand turbulent mixing to advance how we account for it in our forecast model parameterizations to improve forecasts. Summary: Tropical cyclones are fueled by the heat from the warm ocean below.  This heat energy moves upward into … Continue reading Paper investigating the effects of grid resolution, horizontal turbulence models, and horizontal mixing length on real hurricane forecasts published online in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Article on wind and turbulence near the surface in landfalling tropical cyclones published in Nature Scientific Reports

This study examines the structure of the part of the atmosphere closest to the surface in a landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) using land-based tower observations. Turbulence is made up of random and continuously changing wind that mixes the atmosphere allowing the energy from the warm ocean below to move upward and fuel the hurricane.  Observations … Continue reading Article on wind and turbulence near the surface in landfalling tropical cyclones published in Nature Scientific Reports

Study on forecasting the important area closest to the surface in hurricanes published in Weather and Forecasting

Forecasting turbulence is important in forecasting tropical cyclones (TCs). Turbulence is made up of random and continuously changing wind, in small areas 100 m or less across, but meteorologists forecast TCs using computer models on grids with each point several kilometers from each other. As turbulence is much smaller than these grids, it is typically … Continue reading Study on forecasting the important area closest to the surface in hurricanes published in Weather and Forecasting

Study on how ocean surface waves influence the part of the atmosphere closest to the surface published in The Journal of Physical Oceanography

For more information, contact aoml.communications@noaa.,gov. The full paper can be found at https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/phoc/aop/JPO-D-21-0164.1/JPO-D-21-0164.1.xml. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41806028, 41830533, 41606024); the National Basic Research Program of China, Monitoring and Forecasting of Finescale Structure and Impact Assessment of Landfalling Typhoons (2015CB452800) and the Construction Project of the National … Continue reading Study on how ocean surface waves influence the part of the atmosphere closest to the surface published in The Journal of Physical Oceanography

Study on improving tropical cyclone forecasts by improving the way turbulence near the surface is modeled highlighted in EOS

Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Read the highlight at https://eos.org/editor-highlights/hurricane-forecast-improvement-with-better-turbulent-processes. Read more about this study at https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2021/09/30/study-on-improving-tropical-cyclone-forecasts-by-improving-the-way-turbulence-near-the-surface-is-modeled-published-in-the-journal-of-geophysical-research/. For more information, contact aoml.communications@noaa.gov.

Study on improving tropical cyclone forecasts by improving the way turbulence near the surface is modeled published in the Journal of Geophysical Research

This paper shows that correctly representing the details of processes in model physics schemes can lead to big forecast skill improvement (up to 10 kt).  The large number of cases provide confidence in the results.  Summary: The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is the lowest part of the atmosphere, typically within about 1 km of the Earth’s surface. … Continue reading Study on improving tropical cyclone forecasts by improving the way turbulence near the surface is modeled published in the Journal of Geophysical Research

Study on small-scale vortices near the surface in tropical cyclones published in Scientific Reports

The full paper can be accessed at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-97766-7.pdf. For more information, contact aoml.communications@noaa.gov.Jie Tang and Xiaotu Lei were supported by the Key Program for International S&T Cooperation Projects of China (No. 2017YFE0107700), National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41475060 and 41775065) and the ESCAP/WMO EXOTICCA Project. Jun Zhang was supported by NOAA grant NA19OAR0220186 … Continue reading Study on small-scale vortices near the surface in tropical cyclones published in Scientific Reports

Study showing the impact of turbulence in computer forecasts of hurricanes published in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Summary:  Turbulence is made up of random and continuously changing wind.  It is important in tropical cyclones because turbulence in the lowest 1-2 km of the atmosphere (the planetary boundary layer or PBL) and in clouds affects tropical cyclone intensity and structural change. Meteorologists use computer models to forecast the weather, including tropical cyclones.  These … Continue reading Study showing the impact of turbulence in computer forecasts of hurricanes published in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Study on how to improve model forecasts of the region closest to the ocean surface published in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Summary:  Turbulence is made up of random and continuously changing wind.  It is important in tropical cyclones (TCs) because turbulence in the lowest 1-2 km of the free atmosphere (the planetary boundary layer or PBL) affects TC intensity and structural change. Meteorologists use computer models to forecast the weather, including TCs. These models forecast the … Continue reading Study on how to improve model forecasts of the region closest to the ocean surface published in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Jun Zhang participates in 2nd Boundary Layer Workshop

The 2nd Boundary Layer Workshop was held virtually on 1-2 June. The goal of the workshop is to continue the work from the previous one to improve our understanding and modeling of surface and atmospheric boundary layer processes. The event was organized by Tilden Meyers of NOAA's Air Resource's Laboratory and David Turner of NOAA's … Continue reading Jun Zhang participates in 2nd Boundary Layer Workshop