HRD scientists attend Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program Annual Meeting

Last week, researchers from HRD attended the 2022 Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) Annual Meeting in Miami, Florida.  Group photo of some of the participants of the 2022 HFIP Annual Meeting, both in person and virtually.  The primary objective of this meeting was to discuss key HFIP strategies including advances to NOAA's next-generation Hurricane Analysis and Forecast … Continue reading HRD scientists attend Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program Annual Meeting

Study of what controlled the track of Hurricane Dorian in 2019 released online in Monthly Weather Review

This study looked at a collection (ensemble) of 80 runs of a hurricane model for Hurricane Dorian to learn why some got the forecast right and others got it wrong.  The study shows how useful ensembles can be for understanding how hurricanes move, and also shows that it is critical to forecast what is happening … Continue reading Study of what controlled the track of Hurricane Dorian in 2019 released online in Monthly Weather Review

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of July 2022

July’s science meeting consisted of five presentations: Josh Cossuth (ONR) - "The Geolocated Processing System (GeoIPS) A platform for collaborative development & processing satellite information" Jon Zawislak - "Overview of NASA's 2022 Convective Processes Experiment Cabo Verde (CPEX-CV)" Bruno Rojas (Lapenta Intern) - "Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Dorian Using HEDAS Analyses" Andy Hazelton - "AOML … Continue reading HRD Monthly Science Meeting of July 2022

New study on how landfalling hurricanes can change ocean temperatures near the coast causing the hurricane to intensify published in Geophysical Research Letters

This study uses a state-of-the-art hurricane modeling system developed at the NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory’s Hurricane Research Division, the Basin-Scale Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF-B) model, to demonstrate a link between an oceanographic process called coastal downwelling and the intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs or hurricanes) near landfall. We show that coastal downwelling … Continue reading New study on how landfalling hurricanes can change ocean temperatures near the coast causing the hurricane to intensify published in Geophysical Research Letters

Paper describing a new forecast model that follows multiple tropical cyclones at the same time highlighted on the cover of the latest Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Forecast models that follow individual tropical cyclones (TCs), like NOAA’s Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model, have contributed to significant improvement of intensity forecasts for over a decade.  The original HWRF could only follow one TC, but recent advances allow individual multiple nests to follow more than one TC.  This is the first time that the … Continue reading Paper describing a new forecast model that follows multiple tropical cyclones at the same time highlighted on the cover of the latest Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

HRD Seminar – Dr. Andrew Hazelton (CIMAS/HRD) – 9 February 2022

Dr. Hazelton presented a seminar titled “Examining Hurricane Dorian's Early Intensification and Long-term Track Evolution Through an Ensemble of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System”. ABSTRACT: Hurricane Dorian (2019) was one of the strongest hurricanes on record in the Atlantic basin, and caused significant devastation across the northern Bahamas as it stalled out as a … Continue reading HRD Seminar – Dr. Andrew Hazelton (CIMAS/HRD) – 9 February 2022

Study on improvements to NOAA’s hurricane forecast model and the way it predicts the region closest to the surface published in Weather and Forecasting

We modified the way NOAA’s new hurricane model forecasts what happens in the lowest part of the atmosphere based on observations from Hurricane Hunter research flights. The new scheme produced track forecasts that were up to 20% better than from the older scheme, a 15% improvement in detection of rapid intensification events, and smaller tropical … Continue reading Study on improvements to NOAA’s hurricane forecast model and the way it predicts the region closest to the surface published in Weather and Forecasting