HRD & AOML researchers at 98th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, Austin, TX – 7-11 January 2018

Abstracts and recordings of  the 27 presentations and 9 posters AOML & HRD researchers presented (or were co-authors) at the 98th AMS Annual Meeting are available online from the AMS website: Presentations: Karina Apodaca, M. Zupanski, L. Cucurull, and M. Hu - Implementation of the GOES-16 GLM Lightning Assimilation into the NCEP/GSI System for Improved …

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of February 2018

February’s science meeting consisted of three presentations: Rob Rogers: The relationship between tropical cyclone structure and intensification in moderate vertical shear Jon Zawislak: 2018 NOAA/AOML/HRD Hurricane Field Program Intensity Forecast Experiment (IFEX): Overview of Experiment Design Pete Black: Emerging Airborne Technologies for improved TC Track and Intensity Forecasting: Preliminary Observations from SHOUT and EPOCH All the …

Paper on how small-scale changes in winds in hurricanes impact hurricane forecasts released online in Weather and Forecasting

Summary: Forecasters and researchers use the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model to forecast where a hurricane will go, how strong and large it will be, and where the strongest winds will be. Wind in hurricanes are different over very short distances like 100 m, or the length of a football field, what is …

Paper on updrafts in hurricanes and how they relate to intensity changes released online in Monthly Weather Review

Summary:  NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have a Doppler radar that measures wind through the entire hurricane.  We analyzed these radar data collected in many hurricanes since 2004.  Previous studies found that the location of the fastest upward moving air (what we call updrafts) may tell us how strong the storm will be a few hours …

Paper on the difference between rapidly intensifying storms and those that don’t intensify as fast published in Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Summary: The main model that forecasters use to predict what a hurricane will do is the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model. Because we cannot measure what is currently happening in the hurricane exactly, we run the model many times at once with different measurements to get an idea of the different forecasts that …

Paper on Hurricane Patricia, the most intense hurricane ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

In October 2015, off the west coast of Mexico, Hurricane Patricia became the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the western hemisphere, intensifying faster than any other storm on record. A unique set of observations were collected in Patricia. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Office of Naval Research (ONR) aircraft …