HRD Scientists brief NOAA Aircraft Operations Center personnel on IFEX 2018, Lakeland, FL – 21 June 2018

Intensity Forecast Experiment (IFEX) Program Director Jon Zawislak and HRD Director Frank Marks briefed the Aircraft Operations Center (AOC) personnel at their brand new facility at Lakeland Linder Regional Airport on IFEX plans for 2018 and Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project progress, respectively. The two presentations are available in a .zip archive on the anonymous ftp …

AOML and HRD researchers at 33rd AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Ponte Vedra, FL – 15-20 April 2018

Thirty-one AOML and HRD scientists participated in the recent 33rd AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology in Ponte Vedra, FL, as authors or co-authors on 65 presentations and 19 posters. Roughly 783 presentations (507 oral presentations in 67 sessions and 276 posters in 2 session) were submitted to the conference. Of the 567 TC-related presentations …

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of May 2018

May’s science meeting consisted of three presentations: Jonathan Zawislak - The Relationship Between Observed Thermodynamic and Precipitation Properties During TC Intensity Change Paul Reasor - Vortex Alignment Processes in Vertically-Sheared Tropical Storms John Kaplan - Statistical Rapid Intensification Model Development: Recent Results and Efforts to Include Storm Structure All the presentations are available on the …

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of April 2018

April’s science meeting consisted of five presentations: Andrew Kren - Impact of Global Hawk dropsonde data assimilated in the NCEP GFS model during SHOUT: Hurricanes Matthew and Nicole in 2016 Hui Christophersen - Impact of Global Hawk Dropsondes on Tropical Cyclone Analyses and Forecasts Sim Aberson -  1-km HEDAS analysis of Hurricane Patricia just after peak …

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of March 2018

March’s science meeting consisted of four presentations: Josh Wadler, UM/RSMAS: Downdrafts and the Evolution of Boundary Layer Thermodynamics in Hurricane Earl (2010) Before and During Rapid Intensification Ghassan Alaka: Evaluation of Track Spread in Hurricane Joaquin (2015) Heather Holbach: Dropsonde Wind Speed Comparison to SFMR at Coyote Flight Levels Kelly Ryan-Poterjoy: Coyote Thermodynamic Verification using …

NOAA Hurricane Research overview for WMO Region IV Training Workshop, NHC – 26 February 2018

To demonstrate how tropical cyclone research is used to improve forecast guidance HRD researchers Drs. Frank Marks, Robert Rogers, and Jason Sippel presented summaries of “NOAA’s Hurricane Research”, “Aircraft Observations of Tropical Cyclones”, and  "Tropical Cyclone Modeling and Data Assimilation"  to the World Meteorological Organization Regional Association IV Training Workshop held in the National Hurricane …

HRD & AOML researchers at 98th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, Austin, TX – 7-11 January 2018

Abstracts and recordings of  the 27 presentations and 9 posters AOML & HRD researchers presented (or were co-authors) at the 98th AMS Annual Meeting are available online from the AMS website: Presentations: Karina Apodaca, M. Zupanski, L. Cucurull, and M. Hu - Implementation of the GOES-16 GLM Lightning Assimilation into the NCEP/GSI System for Improved …

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of February 2018

February’s science meeting consisted of three presentations: Rob Rogers: The relationship between tropical cyclone structure and intensification in moderate vertical shear Jon Zawislak: 2018 NOAA/AOML/HRD Hurricane Field Program Intensity Forecast Experiment (IFEX): Overview of Experiment Design Pete Black: Emerging Airborne Technologies for improved TC Track and Intensity Forecasting: Preliminary Observations from SHOUT and EPOCH All the …

HRD Seminar – Michael Fischer, University of Albany/SUNY – 9 February 2018

Michael presented a seminar titled  “Normalized Convective Characteristics of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Events in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific”. Abstract The relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) convective characteristics and TC intensity change is explored using infrared and passive microwave satellite imagery of TCs in the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins from …

Paper on the difference between rapidly intensifying storms and those that don’t intensify as fast published in Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Summary: The main model that forecasters use to predict what a hurricane will do is the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model. Because we cannot measure what is currently happening in the hurricane exactly, we run the model many times at once with different measurements to get an idea of the different forecasts that …