New hurricane research supports advances to NOAA’s 2022 forecasts

This summer during the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, scientists at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) will once again be on the frontlines helping NOAA prepare the public for severe weather. They will also conduct new research on the complex processes of how tropical cyclones form, develop, and dissipate. AOML’s operational missions tasked by NOAA’s Environmental … Continue reading New hurricane research supports advances to NOAA’s 2022 forecasts

Study on forecasting the important area closest to the surface in hurricanes published in Weather and Forecasting

Forecasting turbulence is important in forecasting tropical cyclones (TCs). Turbulence is made up of random and continuously changing wind, in small areas 100 m or less across, but meteorologists forecast TCs using computer models on grids with each point several kilometers from each other. As turbulence is much smaller than these grids, it is typically … Continue reading Study on forecasting the important area closest to the surface in hurricanes published in Weather and Forecasting

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of March 2022

March’s science meeting consisted of four presentations by students of our collaborator Prof. Haiyan Zhang at Florida International University: Xinxi Wang: Relating Tropical Cyclone Intensification Rate and Inner-Core Features Using 16-yr TMI data Adrian Lopez: Defining Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Using Bootstrapping Extreme Threshold Estimation  Oscar Guzman: Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Magnitude at Different … Continue reading HRD Monthly Science Meeting of March 2022

AOML releases Accomplishments for 2021

The document aligns with AOML's three goals: Goal 1: Empower Our Team. Create an inclusive and cutting-edge environment that fosters discovery, exploration, and success. Goal 2: Observe the Earth System: Collect and evaluate ocean, atmosphere, and marine ecosystem observations that contribute to the body of scientific knowledge of the Atlantic Ocean region to improve the ability to … Continue reading AOML releases Accomplishments for 2021

Study on improvements to NOAA’s hurricane forecast model and the way it predicts the region closest to the surface published in Weather and Forecasting

We modified the way NOAA’s new hurricane model forecasts what happens in the lowest part of the atmosphere based on observations from Hurricane Hunter research flights. The new scheme produced track forecasts that were up to 20% better than from the older scheme, a 15% improvement in detection of rapid intensification events, and smaller tropical … Continue reading Study on improvements to NOAA’s hurricane forecast model and the way it predicts the region closest to the surface published in Weather and Forecasting

HRD scientists participate in the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2021

The American Geophysical Union is holding their annual Fall Meeting 13-17 December in New Orleans, and also online. Every year, the Fall Meeting unites >25,000 attendees from 100+ countries in the Earth and space sciences community to discuss findings, connect scientists from around the world, advance the profession and connect over passion for the impact … Continue reading HRD scientists participate in the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2021

Rob Rogers gave invited presentation at the opening ceremony for the Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center (AP-TCRC) – 29 November 2021

On 29 November, 2021, Rob Rogers gave an invited virtual talk entitled "Advances in the Understanding and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change from Airborne Observations" at a new international joint tropical cyclone research organization, named the Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center (AP-TCRC). The AP-TCRC is supported by the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee (the Committee) and … Continue reading Rob Rogers gave invited presentation at the opening ceremony for the Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center (AP-TCRC) – 29 November 2021

Paper on NOAA’s new hurricane forecast models published in Weather and Forecasting

We tested two developmental versions of a new forecast model for tropical cyclones being developed by NOAA. Track forecasts from the AOML version were better than NOAA’s current operational models, and intensity forecasts showed promise as well. In particular, the models correctly predicted rapid intensification (when a tropical cyclone’s maximum sustained wind speed increases by … Continue reading Paper on NOAA’s new hurricane forecast models published in Weather and Forecasting