Paper on how accurately predicting turbulence can improve forecasts of tropical cyclones published in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Accurately predicting the distribution and transport of wind energy is important for accurate forecasting of hurricanes by computer models. This study aims to improve our understanding of the energy associated with small-scale eddies and gusts that are known as turbulence. Computer simulations were analyzed to study the distributions of turbulent energy and how hurricane structure …

Paper on how dry air interacts with clouds in the cores of tropical cyclones published in Geophysical Research Letters

Hurricane Hunter aircraft measurements and numerical simulations from the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast and new Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System models show that the air outside of the eyewall and rainbands entrained into the eyewall and rainbands meets an instability criterion, and therefore, sinks unstably as a convective downdraft. This is an important source …

HRD participates in American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting

The world’s largest yearly gathering for the weather, water, and climate community took place earlier this month in Denver, Colorado. Scientists from NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory participated in the 103rd annual American Meteorological Society meeting from January 8 - 12 through formal presentations, posters, panel discussions, and more.  AOML/CIMAS scientist Mu-Chieh (Laura) Ko …

Study that shows improvements to hurricane models predict how the energy from the ocean transfers to the atmosphere underneath hurricanes published in Weather and Forecasting

This study examined how changes to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme based on information from large-eddy simulations affected hurricane model forecast performance during the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. The modified PBL scheme produced more realistic storm structures, on average, when compared to best-track information and observations from Hurricane Hunter Aircraft. The modified PBL physics …

Making the Unpredictable Predictable in Hurricane Forecasts

The chaotic, swirling winds just above the ocean as a hurricane develops play a key role in how strong a storm might be when it reaches land. Helping forecasters better account for this seemingly unpredictable wind turbulence that drives a hurricane's intensity is what scientists with the Northern Gulf Institute and NOAA are doing. Their …

Study of how accurate forecast models are in the region close to the ocean surface published in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Poor modeling of hurricane boundary layer turbulence in computer models is a key obstacle to improving hurricane intensity forecasts. This study uses a recently developed modeling framework based on a large-eddy simulation, or LES, (where model grids are small enough to resolve turbulence) to evaluate the pros and cons of four different planetary boundary layer …

Study that uses buoy and tower data to improve how models forecast the interaction between the atmosphere and ocean in tropical cyclones published in the Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans

Modeling the interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean is important for accurate forecasting of tropical cyclones, especially their intensities.  Because these interactions are so complex, we typically model these interactions using what we call parameterizations to estimate what is really happening.  One parameter, the drag coefficient, is the resistance between motions in the atmosphere …

Paper investigating the effects of grid resolution, horizontal turbulence models, and horizontal mixing length on real hurricane forecasts published online in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Physical parameterizations in computer models need to consider the unique structures of tropical cyclones. The study helps us understand turbulent mixing to advance how we account for it in our forecast model parameterizations to improve forecasts. Summary: Tropical cyclones are fueled by the heat from the warm ocean below.  This heat energy moves upward into …

Study on improvements to NOAA’s hurricane forecast model and the way it predicts the region closest to the surface published in Weather and Forecasting

We modified the way NOAA’s new hurricane model forecasts what happens in the lowest part of the atmosphere based on observations from Hurricane Hunter research flights. The new scheme produced track forecasts that were up to 20% better than from the older scheme, a 15% improvement in detection of rapid intensification events, and smaller tropical …

Study on improving tropical cyclone forecasts by improving the way turbulence near the surface is modeled highlighted in EOS

Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Read the highlight at https://eos.org/editor-highlights/hurricane-forecast-improvement-with-better-turbulent-processes. Read more about this study at https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2021/09/30/study-on-improving-tropical-cyclone-forecasts-by-improving-the-way-turbulence-near-the-surface-is-modeled-published-in-the-journal-of-geophysical-research/. For more information, contact aoml.communications@noaa.gov.