Study on improvements to NOAA’s hurricane forecast model and the way it predicts the region closest to the surface published in Weather and Forecasting

We modified the way NOAA’s new hurricane model forecasts what happens in the lowest part of the atmosphere based on observations from Hurricane Hunter research flights. The new scheme produced track forecasts that were up to 20% better than from the older scheme, a 15% improvement in detection of rapid intensification events, and smaller tropical … Continue reading Study on improvements to NOAA’s hurricane forecast model and the way it predicts the region closest to the surface published in Weather and Forecasting

Study on improving tropical cyclone forecasts by improving the way turbulence near the surface is modeled highlighted in EOS

Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Read the highlight at https://eos.org/editor-highlights/hurricane-forecast-improvement-with-better-turbulent-processes. Read more about this study at https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2021/09/30/study-on-improving-tropical-cyclone-forecasts-by-improving-the-way-turbulence-near-the-surface-is-modeled-published-in-the-journal-of-geophysical-research/. For more information, contact aoml.communications@noaa.gov.

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of August 2021

August's science meeting consisted of two presentations: Stanley Goldenberg - "NOAA’s August Update of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Methodology & Forecast"  Tomislava Vukicevic - "Sensitivity of microphysics parameterization to stochastically perturbed parameters" Copies of the two presentations are available on the anonymous ftp site at: ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/blog/meetings/2021/Science/HRD_SciMeet_20210812.zip

Study on improving tropical cyclone forecasts by improving the way turbulence near the surface is modeled published in the Journal of Geophysical Research

This paper shows that correctly representing the details of processes in model physics schemes can lead to big forecast skill improvement (up to 10 kt).  The large number of cases provide confidence in the results.  Summary: The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is the lowest part of the atmosphere, typically within about 1 km of the Earth’s surface. … Continue reading Study on improving tropical cyclone forecasts by improving the way turbulence near the surface is modeled published in the Journal of Geophysical Research

Study on small-scale vortices near the surface in tropical cyclones published in Scientific Reports

The full paper can be accessed at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-97766-7.pdf. For more information, contact aoml.communications@noaa.gov.Jie Tang and Xiaotu Lei were supported by the Key Program for International S&T Cooperation Projects of China (No. 2017YFE0107700), National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41475060 and 41775065) and the ESCAP/WMO EXOTICCA Project. Jun Zhang was supported by NOAA grant NA19OAR0220186 … Continue reading Study on small-scale vortices near the surface in tropical cyclones published in Scientific Reports

Study showing the impact of turbulence in computer forecasts of hurricanes published in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Summary:  Turbulence is made up of random and continuously changing wind.  It is important in tropical cyclones because turbulence in the lowest 1-2 km of the atmosphere (the planetary boundary layer or PBL) and in clouds affects tropical cyclone intensity and structural change. Meteorologists use computer models to forecast the weather, including tropical cyclones.  These … Continue reading Study showing the impact of turbulence in computer forecasts of hurricanes published in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Study on how to improve model forecasts of the region closest to the ocean surface published in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Summary:  Turbulence is made up of random and continuously changing wind.  It is important in tropical cyclones (TCs) because turbulence in the lowest 1-2 km of the free atmosphere (the planetary boundary layer or PBL) affects TC intensity and structural change. Meteorologists use computer models to forecast the weather, including TCs. These models forecast the … Continue reading Study on how to improve model forecasts of the region closest to the ocean surface published in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Latest edition of AOML Keynotes now available

Articles include information on the testing of the Altius-600 uncrewed aircraft in hurricanes, an overview of different boundary-layer techniques in hurricane models, new hurricane model systems, Nancy Griffin's retirement after 40 years of government service, and a tribute to Bob Kohler. Read Keynotes at https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Jan-Mar-2021-AOML-Keynotes-Newsletter-2.pdf?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=january-march-2021&utm_campaign=keynotes

Paper looking at how model forecasts of what is happening near the ocean surface in tropical cyclones changes as the space between forecast points gets smaller published in Monthly Weather Review

The energy that fuels tropical cyclones comes from heat and moisture from the warm ocean below.  This energy is transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere and the momentum is transported from atmosphere to surface by what we call turbulent processes in the atmosphere near the ocean surface (what we call the planetary boundary layer … Continue reading Paper looking at how model forecasts of what is happening near the ocean surface in tropical cyclones changes as the space between forecast points gets smaller published in Monthly Weather Review

Study on how different techniques to model the hurricane boundary layer can improve forecasts published in Atmosphere

In a new study published in Atmosphere, hurricane scientists looked at how turbulent mixing in the boundary layer affects the intensity and structure of hurricanes in NOAA’s Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model. They found that turbulent mixing affects where thunderstorms in hurricanes occur, and how fast air flows towards the center of a storm. Image … Continue reading Study on how different techniques to model the hurricane boundary layer can improve forecasts published in Atmosphere