Study on how to improve model forecasts of the region closest to the ocean surface released online in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Summary:  Turbulence is made up of random and continuously changing wind.  It is important in tropical cyclones (TCs) because turbulence in the lowest 1-2 km of the free atmosphere (the planetary boundary layer or PBL) affects TC intensity and structural change. Meteorologists use computer models to forecast the weather, including TCs. These models forecast the … Continue reading Study on how to improve model forecasts of the region closest to the ocean surface released online in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Study shows for the first time how and where dry air in the tropical cyclone core can impact intensity. Paper released online in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

In the middle atmosphere in and around tropical cyclones, around 2 to 5 km above the surface, air is cooler and drier than near the ocean surface. It is well known that this cool, dry air can be brought down toward the surface by heavy rain in thunderstorms, where the air flows toward the tropical … Continue reading Study shows for the first time how and where dry air in the tropical cyclone core can impact intensity. Paper released online in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of July 2021

July's science meeting consisted of five presentations: Sophie Grimsley (Lapenta Intern): "Project Check-in: Hurricane Intensity Change and Boundary Layer Processes" Nick Mesa (Lapenta Intern): "Investigating Intensity Changes Related to Thermodynamic Processes Using Near-coincident Aircraft and Satellite Observations" Laura Ko: "A Consensus Machine Learning Model for Hurricane RI Probabilistic Predictions" Sim Aberson: "Including High-Resolution AMVs in … Continue reading HRD Monthly Science Meeting of July 2021

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of June 2021

June's science meeting consisted of six presentations: Nick Mesa (HRD): “Investigating intensity changes related to thermodynamic processes using near-coincident aircraft and satellite observations” Sophie Grimsley (HRD): “Hurricane Intensity Change and Boundary Layer Processes” Chris Landsea (NHC): "Was 2020 a Record-Breaking Hurricane Season?  Yes, but… (Why did the new average number of Named Storms go up … Continue reading HRD Monthly Science Meeting of June 2021

Jun Zhang participates in 2nd Boundary Layer Workshop

The 2nd Boundary Layer Workshop was held virtually on 1-2 June. The goal of the workshop is to continue the work from the previous one to improve our understanding and modeling of surface and atmospheric boundary layer processes. The event was organized by Tilden Meyers of NOAA's Air Resource's Laboratory and David Turner of NOAA's … Continue reading Jun Zhang participates in 2nd Boundary Layer Workshop

HRD scientists participate in the 34th American Meteorological Society Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

34th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology Virtual Meeting The 34th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology was held virtually 10-14 May after being postponed from 2020. This is the premiere meeting for operational and research scientists who work on understanding and forecasting tropical cyclones and other tropical weather around the world. HRD scientist … Continue reading HRD scientists participate in the 34th American Meteorological Society Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Paper on how the ocean allowed for the intensification of Hurricane Michael to category-5 status before landfall published in the Journal of Geophysical Research – Oceans

Ocean observations showed very warm water at the surface and below, and computer simulations show that these ocean conditions supported intensification despite unfavorable atmospheric conditions. For more information on this study, contact aoml.communications@noaa.gov. Read the whole study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2020JC016969.

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of April 2021

April's science meeting consisted of four presentations: Xiaomin Chen: "Boundary Layer Recovery and Precipitation Symmetrization Preceding Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones under Shear" Andy Hazelton: "HAFS Ensemble of Hurricane Dorian (2019): Early Intensity and Long-Term Track" Jon Zawislak: "Accomplishments of NOAA's Airborne Hurricane Field Program and a Broader Future Approach to Forecast Improvement" Kathryn Sellwood: … Continue reading HRD Monthly Science Meeting of April 2021

HRD scientists participate in annual AVAPS Users Group Meeting

The annual meeting, held online this year, brings together developers and users of the Airborne Vertical Atmospheric Profiling System, the basis of the dropwindsondes released in and around tropical cyclones each summer since 1997. The AVAPS dropsondes are released from NOAA and Air Force aircraft to measure high-resolution profiles of temperature, pressure, humidity, and wind … Continue reading HRD scientists participate in annual AVAPS Users Group Meeting