HRD & AOML researchers at 95th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, Phoenix, AZ – 4-8 January 2015

Screen Shot 2015-04-04 at 5.42.29 PMAbstracts and recordings of  the 13 presentations and 4 posters AOML & HRD researchers presented (or were co-authors) at the 95th AMS Annual Meeting are available online from the AMS website:

Presentations:

  1. Improving the Performance of the Basin Scale HWRF SystemJavier Delgado, University of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and T. Quirino, X. Zhang, and S. Gopalakrishnan
  2. Targeting on the Research to Operational Transition with the Basin-scale HWRF Modeling SystemXuejin Zhang, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and T. Quirino, S. Trahan, Q. Liu, Z. Zhang, R. St. Fleur, S. Gopalakrishnan, V. Tallapragada, and F. D. Marks Jr.
  3. A Global to Local-Scale Hurricane Forecasting SystemXuejin Zhang (for Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan), University of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and T. Black, T. Quirino, V. Tallapragada, Z. Janjic, and T. L. Schneider
  4. Real-time Airborne Radar Data Quality Control and transmission from NOAA Aircraft for assimilation into HWRFJohn F. Gamache, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. Otero, J. W. Hill, and P. P. Dodge
  5. NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project – HFIPFrank D. Marks Jr., NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and F. Toepfer, R. L. Gall, E. Rappaport, and V. Tallapragada
  6. Tropical Cyclone Research Utilizing the Global Hawk Unmanned AircraftJason Dunion (for Michael Black), University of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and R. E. Hood and G. A. Wick
  7. Observing System Simulation Experiments to Assess the Potential Impact of Proposed Observing Systems on Hurricane PredictionRobert Atlas, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and L. Bucci, A. Aksoy, B. Annane, R. N. Hoffman, G. D. Emmitt, Y. Xie, S. J. Majumdar, J. Delgado, and L. Cucurull
  8. Fusion of Hurricane Models and Observations: Developing the Technology to Improve the ForecastsSvetla Hristova-Veleva, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and M. Boothe, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, Z. Haddad, B. Knosp, B. Lambrigtsen, P. P. Li, M. Montgomery, N. Niamsuwan, T. P. Shen, V. Tallapragada, S. Tanelli, and F. J. Turk
  9. North Atlantic OSSEs in support of improved hurricane forecasting: Nature Run evaluationVilly H. Kourafalou, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and G. R. Halliwell Jr., R. Atlas, H. S. Kang, M. F. Mehari, M. Le Henaff, L. K. Shay, R. Lumpkin, and G. Goni

Student presentations (HRD Hollings Scholars):

  1. An Extreme Event in the Eyewall of Hurricane FelixKelly Marie Nunez Ocasio, University of Puerto Rico, Mayagüez,, PR; and S. D. Aberson and J. Zhang
  2. A Statistical Take on the Hurricane’s Structure and Its Spatial ExtentRobert G. Nystrom, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL; and A. Askoy

Posters:

  1. Impact of CYGNSS Data on Hurricane Analyses and Forecasts in a Regional OSSE FrameworkBachir Annane, Univ. of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and B. McNoldy, J. Delgado, L. Bucci, R. Atlas, and S. Majumdar
  2. OSSE Evaluation of a Hyperspectral Sounder and its Potential Impact on Hurricane PredictionLisa Bucci, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and B. Annane, J. Delgado, and R. Atlas
  3. Wave and Wind Direction Effects on SFMR Brightness Temperatures – Heather M. Holbach, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn and M. A. Bourassa
  4. Improving Physical Parameterizations of the Operational Hurricane Model Using Aircraft ObservationsJun Zhang, NOAA/AOML/HRD and Univ. of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and F. D. Marks Jr., S. Gopalakrishnan, R. Rogers, and V. Tallapragada

HRD/NHC CHART Seminar – Dr. Jun Zhang, CIMAS and AOML/HRD – 13 February 2015

Dr. Zhang presented a seminar on “Improving Hurricane Model Physics using Aircraft Observations ” which is available on the NHC science presentation web site or at:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/blog/seminars/2015/Seminar_NHC_JunZhang_2015Feb13.pdf

Abstract

This talk addresses the important role of aircraft observations in hurricane model physics validation and improvement. As part of NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), a model  framework for improving the physical parameterizations using quality-controlled and post-processed aircraft observations is developed, with steps that include model diagnostics, physics development, physics implementation and further evaluation. Model deficiencies are first identified through model diagnostics by comparing the simulated axisymmetric multi-scale structures to observational composites. New physical parameterizations are developed in parallel based on in-situ observational data from specially designed hurricane field programs. The new physics package is then implemented in the model, which is followed by further evaluation. The developmental framework presented here is found to be successful in improving the surface layer and boundary layer parameterization schemes in the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model that leads to improved hurricane track and intensity forecasts.

J. Zhang presentation

J. Zhang presentation

Paper on the rapid intensification of Hurricane Earl in 2010 published in Monthly Weather Review

The paper discusses changes to the structure of Hurricane Earl (2010) as it rapidly intensified.   It found

  • Earl tilted with height before it intensified, but was upright during the intensification.
  • Strong thunderstorms played a significant role in the rapid intensification of Hurricane Earl.
  • Thunderstorms located on the inside of the eyewall are a condition favorable for intensification.
  • It is important to learn why thunderstorms form where they do to improve forecasts.
  • It is also important to observe the structure of the hurricane to better represent where these thunderstorms may occur in forecast models and improve hurricane forecasts.

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The paper can be accessed at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00175.1.

HRD scientists participate in HFIP RI Workshop and Annual Review, University of Miami/RSMAS – 18-20 November 2014

The HFIP Workshop on Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensity Change (RIC) and Annual Review Meeting were held at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), Miami, FL from 18-20 November, 2014. The agenda, presentations, and background information are available at http://www.hfip.org/events/annual_meeting_nov_2014/.

The goals of the Workshop on Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensity Change (RIC) were to:

  1. Assess current capabilities for numerical and statistical prediction of RIC, including emphasis on rapid intensification
  2. Identify short-term (0-1 year) and long-term (1-3 year) potential improvements of RIC prediction

HRD scientists Rob Rogers, John Kaplan, Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, and Jun Zhang provided invited talks.

The HFIP Annual Workshop consisted of three parts:

  1. Reports from each of the strategic and tiger teams on activities and results from 2014 and plans for 2015
  2. A couple of reports on activities relevant to the later discussions
  3. A discussion of priorities for a reduced project

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of November 2014

November’s Science meeting had 5 presentations:

  1. Robert Rogers:  The use of airborne inner core data to aid in short-term intensity prediction
  2. Xuejin Zhang: Basin-scale HWRF Verification
  3. Jun Zhang:  Evaluating the impact of improvements in boundary-layer parameterization on hurricane intensity and structure forecasts in HWRF
  4. Zin Lhu (EMC): Idealized 18/6/2 HWRF Physics experiments in preparation for 2015 implementation
  5. Ghassan Alaka: The Intraseasonal Variability of African Easterly Waves

The presentations are available on the anonymous ftp site at:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/blog/meetings/2014/science/HRD_Scimeet_20141113.zip

Paper on a dataset of dropwindsonde observations in tropical cyclones released online by the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

A long-term (1996–2012), high-quality, high vertical resolution (∼5–15 m) GPS dropsonde dataset is created from NOAA Hurricane flights and consists of 13,681 atmospheric profiles for 120 tropical cyclones.

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The paper can be accessed at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00203.1.

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of October 2014

October’s Science meeting had 2 presentations:

  1. Jason Dunion:  Hurricane Edouard: TC Diurnal Cycle
  2. Jun Zhang:  The spin-up of Hurricane Earl (2010) in a HWRF forecast

The presentations are available on the anonymous ftp site at:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/blog/meetings/2014/science/HRD_Scimeet_20141009.zip

HRD Debrief for missions into Hurricane Edouard – 1 October 2014

HRD researchers discussed the results from the 8 P-3, 1 G-IV, and 3 Global-Hawk missions into Hurricane Edouard. The agenda for the discussion was:
  1. Brief overview of all missions (Joe Cione)
  2. Overview of Doppler radar composites (Sim Aberson)
  3. Pre-storm ocean and ocean winds (Eric Uhlhorn)
  4. Model evaluation experiment – 20140915H1 (Jason Dunion)
  5. Model evaluation experiment – 20140915I1 (Eric Uhlhorn)
  6. HS3/NOAA Global Hawk operations – 20140914-15 (Rob Rogers)
  7. Model evaluation experiment – 20140915N1 (Altug Aksoy)
  8. Model evaluation experiment – 20140916H1 (Jason Dunion)
  9. Coyote USA – 20140916H1 (Joe Cione)
  10. Ocean winds – 20140916I1 (Sim Aberson/Paul Chang)
  11. Model evaluation experiment – 20140917H1 (Evan Kalina)
  12. Coyote USA – 20140917H1 (Joe Cione)
  13. HS3/NOAA Global Hawk operations – 20140916-17 (Rob Rogers)
  14. Post-storm ocean and glider comparison 20140919I1 (Eric Uhlhorn)
  15. Caribbean Survey Ocean Glider/North Brazil Current Ring Experiment 20140919I1 (Johna Rudzin, RSMAS)
  16. Media (Erica Rule)
  17. Open discussion (all)

Slides from the debrief are available at:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/blog/meetings/2014/HFP/Debrief_Edouard.pptx

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10th Anniversary of Hurricane Jeanne

Jeanne_At_Landfall

Infrared satellite picture of Hurricane Jeanne at Florida landfall (NOAA)

On the night of Sept. 25, 2004, Hurricane Jeanne made landfall at Sewall’s Point, FL, just three weeks after Hurricane Frances came ashore near the same location.  It was the last of four hurricanes to affect Florida that year, being preceded by Charley, Frances, and Ivan.

Jeanne_2004_track

Hurricane Jeanne’s track (Wikipedia)

Jeanne began as a tropical wave which organized into a tropical depression prior to passing through the Lesser Antilles.  Once west of the islands, it was upgraded to a tropical storm and then a hurricane after it made landfall in Puerto Rico.  It skimmed along the north shore of Hispañola, which weakened it back down to a depression as it dumped tremendous rains on the mountains there.  Over 3000 people died from flash floods and landslides.  Turning north and moving over the Turks and Caicos, Jeanne seemed destined to recurve out to sea and do no more harm.  But a high pressure ridge to its north stalled and then forced it into a clockwise loop.  During this maneuver, Jeanne regained strength and began heading westward.  As it struck Florida, the hurricane achieved its peak power, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (195 km/hr).  Once ashore, Jeanne turned northwest and traveled up Florida and across Georgia before incorporating into a cold front as an extratropical low.  All along its track, Jeanne produced heavy rains and flooding.

 

Hurricane_Jeanne_25_sept_1615Z_full

Hurricane Jeanne near its peak. MODIS satellite (NASA)

Damage from Jeanne was hard to assess since clean-up after Frances had not been complete. One estimate of US$7 billion would make Jeanne the 15th costliest hurricane on record.  It was certainly the final sour note in Florida’s hurricane sonata for that year.

HRD participated in ten NOAA missions into Jeanne, after it had made its loop and began to intensify.  Some of the research to come out of Jeanne:

  • Environmental Ingredients for Supercells and Tornadoes within Hurricane Ivan Adam K. Baker, Matthew D. Parker, Matthew D. Eastin Weather and Forecasting Volume 24, Issue 1 (February 2009) pp. 223-244
  • On Momentum Transport and Dissipative Heating during Hurricane Landfalls Jun A. Zhang, Ping Zhu, Forrest J. Masters, Robert F. Rogers, Frank D. Marks Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Volume 68, Issue 6 (June 2011) pp. 1397-1404
  • A Comparison of Adaptive Observing Guidance for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones S. J. Majumdar, S. D. Aberson, C. H. Bishop, R. Buizza, M. S. Peng, C. A. Reynolds Monthly Weather Review Volume 134, Issue 9 (September 2006) pp. 2354-2372
  • Eye and Eyewall Traits as Determined with the NOAA WP-3D Lower-Fuselage Radar Carl E. Barnes, Gary M. Barnes Monthly Weather Review Volume 142, Issue 9 (September 2014) pp. 3393-3417
  • Tropical Cyclone Destructive Potential by Integrated Kinetic Energy Mark D. Powell, Timothy A. Reinhold Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 88, Issue 4 (April 2007) pp. 513-526
  • THIRTY YEARS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RESEARCH WITH THE NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT Sim D. Aberson, Michael L. Black, Robert A. Black, Joseph J. Cione, Christopher W. Landsea, Frank D. Marks Jr., Robert W. Burpee Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 87, Issue 8 (August 2006) pp. 1039-1055
  • A Parametric Model for Predicting Hurricane Rainfall Manuel Lonfat, Robert Rogers, Timothy Marchok, Frank D. Marks Jr. Monthly Weather Review Volume 135, Issue 9 (September 2007) pp. 3086-3097
  • On the Limits of Estimating the Maximum Wind Speeds in Hurricanes David S. Nolan, Jun A. Zhang, Eric W. Uhlhorn Monthly Weather Review Volume 142, Issue 8 (August 2014) pp. 2814-2837
  • Estimating Maximum Surface Winds from Hurricane Reconnaissance Measurements Mark D. Powell, Eric W. Uhlhorn, Jeffrey D. Kepert Weather and Forecasting Volume 24, Issue 3 (June 2009) pp. 868-883
  • Turbulence Structure of the Hurricane Boundary Layer between the Outer Rainbands Jun A. Zhang, William M. Drennan, Peter G. Black, Jeffrey R. French Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Volume 66, Issue 8 (August 2009) pp. 2455-2467
  • Wavelet Analyses of Turbulence in the Hurricane Surface Layer during Landfalls Ping Zhu, Jun A. Zhang, Forrest J. Masters Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Volume 67, Issue 12 (December 2010) pp. 3793-3805
  • Air–Sea Enthalpy and Momentum Exchange at Major Hurricane Wind Speeds Observed during CBLAST Michael M. Bell, Michael T. Montgomery, Kerry A. Emanuel Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Volume 69, Issue 11 (November 2012) pp. 3197-3222

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of September 2014

September’s Science meeting had 5 presentations:

  1. Jie Tang (CMA/STI):  The Transition of Turbulent Cascade in the Near-surface Layer of Landfalling Typhoons
  2. Brad Klotz:  Expanding the MSI metric to scatterometer surface winds
  3. Shirley Murillo:  Science Research Opportunities
  4. Robert Rogers: Convective and vortex-scale interactions during the rapid intensification of Hurricane Earl (2010)
  5. Sandy Delgado:  Reanalysis of the 1954-1963 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

The presentations are available on the anonymous ftp site at:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/blog/meetings/2014/science/HRD_Scimeet_20140911.zip