HRD Scientists participate in 2020 Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Annual Meeting

The 2020 HFIP Annual Meeting was held virtually from 17-19 November. The primary objective of the meeting was to discuss the key HFIP strategies as documented in the HFIP Strategic plan, including development of the next-generation Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) within NOAA's Unified Forecast System. The current state of operational hurricane modeling capabilities … Continue reading HRD Scientists participate in 2020 Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Annual Meeting

Paper on the rapid intensification of Hurricane Michael released online in Monthly Weather Review

Summary: The energy for tropical cyclones comes mainly from the warm ocean below them.  The warmer the water, the greater the energy, and the easier it is to transfer that energy (heat and moisture) into the air and into the tropical cyclone, allowing the thunderstorms that sustain the cyclone to develop.  Cool water (below about … Continue reading Paper on the rapid intensification of Hurricane Michael released online in Monthly Weather Review

Study on how different techniques to model the hurricane boundary layer can improve forecasts published in Atmosphere

In a new study published in Atmosphere, hurricane scientists looked at how turbulent mixing in the boundary layer affects the intensity and structure of hurricanes in NOAA’s Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model. They found that turbulent mixing affects where thunderstorms in hurricanes occur, and how fast air flows towards the center of a storm. Image … Continue reading Study on how different techniques to model the hurricane boundary layer can improve forecasts published in Atmosphere

Gopal presents work on model boundary-layer schemes to the HFIP bi-weekly meeting

Sundararaman "Gopal" Gopalakrishnan reported recent work on boundary-layer parameterization schemes in hurricane models at the 5 August bi-weekly Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program meeting. The hurricane boundary layer is the area of the atmosphere closest to the ocean air where the energy in the form of heat and moisture from the warm ocean is transferred to … Continue reading Gopal presents work on model boundary-layer schemes to the HFIP bi-weekly meeting

HRD scientists participate in workshop on NOAA’s new forecast model

Scientists from the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory Hurricane Research Division are participating in the first Unified Forecast System (UFS) Users Workshop held virtually July 27-29, 2020. UFS is a new Earth modeling system that is under active development to become NOAA's main operational numerical weather prediction model.  It is a single model that will make forecasts in local regions … Continue reading HRD scientists participate in workshop on NOAA’s new forecast model

Paper on consumer stockpiling affects the supply of emergency supplies during and after a hurricane published in Production and Operations Management

The main purpose of this research is to determine how consumer stockpiling (or precautionary buying) behavior, as well as storm and retail characteristics, impact the availability of essential supplies at retailers following a hurricane. You can access the paper at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3309457. For more information, contact aoml.communications@noaa.gov.

Paper on how the regions closest to the surface changed during the landfall of Hurricane Irene in 2011 published in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Summary: Objects on land and the land itself cause wind to be weaker at the surface than above due to friction.  In hurricanes, the strongest wind occurs where friction is no longer important, near the top of a region we call the boundary layer.  Some people live close to the surface, but others live in … Continue reading Paper on how the regions closest to the surface changed during the landfall of Hurricane Irene in 2011 published in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences