December’s Science meeting had 2 presentations:
The presentations are available on the anonymous ftp site at: ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/blog/meetings/2014/science/HRD_SciMeet_20141211.zip
Summary:
Until now, it was believed that hurricanes are maintained by the ocean alone. Observations from 62 hurricanes during 32 years support a different, nuanced conclusion. Besides the ocean, near-surface air temperature and moisture play a large, often dominant, role in maintaining a hurricane.
Important conclusions:
1. The long-held belief that an ocean surface temperature of at least 26 degrees C (80 degrees F) is required to maintain a hurricane was not supported in 6% of the cases studied. Atmospheric moisture conditions in areas of high wind speeds are what cause the “80-degree F threshold” for hurricanes.
2. For hurricanes within 29 degrees of the equator, the atmosphere, not the ocean, was found to be the most important factor in maintaining the hurricane.
The full paper can be accessed at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00380.1.
The HFIP Workshop on Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensity Change (RIC) and Annual Review Meeting were held at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), Miami, FL from 18-20 November, 2014. The agenda, presentations, and background information are available at http://www.hfip.org/events/annual_meeting_nov_2014/.
The goals of the Workshop on Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensity Change (RIC) were to:
HRD scientists Rob Rogers, John Kaplan, Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, and Jun Zhang provided invited talks.
The HFIP Annual Workshop consisted of three parts:
The 3rd North Pacific Ocean and Marginal Seas (NPOMS-3) workshop was convened by WMO/IOC Data Buoy Cooperation Panel (DBCP) to discuss the “Application of Regional Ocean Observations for Increasing Society’s Understanding and Forecasting of Typhoons“, 6-8 October 2014 at Japan’s Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI) in Kyoto. University of Kyoto Graduate School in Advanced Integrated Studies (GSAIS) was the Co-Host with DPRI. NPOMS-3 Co-Sponsors are the DBCP and NOAA’s Office of Climate Observation (OCO) with Workshop Venue on Uji Campus of University of Kyoto. The workshop goals reflect the needs of long-term Ocean-Climate Monitoring Capacity for Regional Cyclogenesis and Forecasting:
The presentations, agenda and list of participants are available here. Dr. Cione made one presentation:
Slides from the debrief are available at:
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/blog/meetings/2014/HFP/Debrief_Edouard.pptx
Infrared satellite picture of Hurricane Jeanne at Florida landfall (NOAA)
On the night of Sept. 25, 2004, Hurricane Jeanne made landfall at Sewall’s Point, FL, just three weeks after Hurricane Frances came ashore near the same location. It was the last of four hurricanes to affect Florida that year, being preceded by Charley, Frances, and Ivan.
Hurricane Jeanne’s track (Wikipedia)
Jeanne began as a tropical wave which organized into a tropical depression prior to passing through the Lesser Antilles. Once west of the islands, it was upgraded to a tropical storm and then a hurricane after it made landfall in Puerto Rico. It skimmed along the north shore of Hispañola, which weakened it back down to a depression as it dumped tremendous rains on the mountains there. Over 3000 people died from flash floods and landslides. Turning north and moving over the Turks and Caicos, Jeanne seemed destined to recurve out to sea and do no more harm. But a high pressure ridge to its north stalled and then forced it into a clockwise loop. During this maneuver, Jeanne regained strength and began heading westward. As it struck Florida, the hurricane achieved its peak power, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (195 km/hr). Once ashore, Jeanne turned northwest and traveled up Florida and across Georgia before incorporating into a cold front as an extratropical low. All along its track, Jeanne produced heavy rains and flooding.
Hurricane Jeanne near its peak. MODIS satellite (NASA)
Damage from Jeanne was hard to assess since clean-up after Frances had not been complete. One estimate of US$7 billion would make Jeanne the 15th costliest hurricane on record. It was certainly the final sour note in Florida’s hurricane sonata for that year.
HRD participated in ten NOAA missions into Jeanne, after it had made its loop and began to intensify. Some of the research to come out of Jeanne:
The full article is available at http://www.news-press.com/story/life/outdoors/2014/09/18/noaa-uses-drone-study-hurricane/15860511/.
