December’s Science meeting had 2 presentations:
- Paul Reasor: The Radar Re-analysis Project: Overview and Status
- Joe Cione: The relative roles of the ocean and atmosphere as revealed by buoy air-sea observations in hurricanes
The presentations are available on the anonymous ftp site at: ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/blog/meetings/2014/science/HRD_SciMeet_20141211.zip
Until now, it was believed that hurricanes are maintained by the ocean alone. Observations from 62 hurricanes during 32 years support a different, nuanced conclusion. Besides the ocean, near-surface air temperature and moisture play a large, often dominant, role in maintaining a hurricane.
1. The long-held belief that an ocean surface temperature of at least 26 degrees C (80 degrees F) is required to maintain a hurricane was not supported in 6% of the cases studied. Atmospheric moisture conditions in areas of high wind speeds are what cause the “80-degree F threshold” for hurricanes.
2. For hurricanes within 29 degrees of the equator, the atmosphere, not the ocean, was found to be the most important factor in maintaining the hurricane.
The full paper can be accessed at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00380.1.
The HFIP Workshop on Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensity Change (RIC) and Annual Review Meeting were held at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), Miami, FL from 18-20 November, 2014. The agenda, presentations, and background information are available at http://www.hfip.org/events/annual_meeting_nov_2014/.
The goals of the Workshop on Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensity Change (RIC) were to:
- Assess current capabilities for numerical and statistical prediction of RIC, including emphasis on rapid intensification
- Identify short-term (0-1 year) and long-term (1-3 year) potential improvements of RIC prediction
HRD scientists Rob Rogers, John Kaplan, Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, and Jun Zhang provided invited talks.
The HFIP Annual Workshop consisted of three parts:
- Reports from each of the strategic and tiger teams on activities and results from 2014 and plans for 2015
- A couple of reports on activities relevant to the later discussions
- A discussion of priorities for a reduced project
Posted in Data Assimilation, Dynamics and Physics, HFIP-Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project, Impacts, Modeling and Prediction, Observations, Presentations
Tagged COYOTE, G-IV, Global Hawk, Hurricane Edouard, Hurricane Gonzalo, HWRF, John Kaplan, Joseph J. Cione, Jun A. Zhang, P3, Picture gallery, rapid intensity change, Robert F. Rogers, Sundararaman G. Gopalakrishnan
The 3rd North Pacific Ocean and Marginal Seas (NPOMS-3) workshop was convened by WMO/IOC Data Buoy Cooperation Panel (DBCP) to discuss the “Application of Regional Ocean Observations for Increasing Society’s Understanding and Forecasting of Typhoons“, 6-8 October 2014 at Japan’s Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI) in Kyoto. University of Kyoto Graduate School in Advanced Integrated Studies (GSAIS) was the Co-Host with DPRI. NPOMS-3 Co-Sponsors are the DBCP and NOAA’s Office of Climate Observation (OCO) with Workshop Venue on Uji Campus of University of Kyoto. The workshop goals reflect the needs of long-term Ocean-Climate Monitoring Capacity for Regional Cyclogenesis and Forecasting:
- Review recent, on-going and planned regional programs on typhoon and its interaction with the ocean,
- Discuss new advances in our understanding of the processes and mechanisms of typhoon-ocean interaction,
- Explore the possibility of regional collaboration to improve typhoon observation and prediction,
- Demonstrate the crucial role of Western Pacific (WESTPAC) ocean observations, such as for understanding and predicting regional cyclogenesis,
- Build Regional and National Human, Institutional and Infrastructure Capacity Needed to Acquire, Process and Deliver Socio-Economic Benefits From Ocean Observations,
- Continue to Learn Practical Implementation Skills for the Deployment of Operational Data Buoys at Sea, the Collection of Buoy Data, and Related Data Management,
- Continue to Align with Objectives of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) to Deliver Ocean Data to the End-User,
- Enhance Coordination and Cooperation between the DBCP Task Team for Capacity Building (TT-CB), WMO Regional Associations (RA-II/V) and the IOC Regional Office for WESTPAC.
The presentations, agenda and list of participants are available here. Dr. Cione made one presentation:
Posted in HFIP-Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project, Modeling and Prediction, Impacts, Presentations, Observations, Dynamics and Physics
Tagged P3, Doppler radar, G-IV, Air-sea interaction, boundary layer, dropwindsondes, Joseph J. Cione, Unmanned Aerial Systems, AXBTs, Observing System Evaluations, Hurricane Edouard
HRD researchers discussed the results from the 8 P-3, 1 G-IV, and 3 Global-Hawk missions into Hurricane Edouard. The agenda for the discussion was:
- Brief overview of all missions (Joe Cione)
- Overview of Doppler radar composites (Sim Aberson)
- Pre-storm ocean and ocean winds (Eric Uhlhorn)
- Model evaluation experiment – 20140915H1 (Jason Dunion)
- Model evaluation experiment – 20140915I1 (Eric Uhlhorn)
- HS3/NOAA Global Hawk operations – 20140914-15 (Rob Rogers)
- Model evaluation experiment – 20140915N1 (Altug Aksoy)
- Model evaluation experiment – 20140916H1 (Jason Dunion)
- Coyote USA – 20140916H1 (Joe Cione)
- Ocean winds – 20140916I1 (Sim Aberson/Paul Chang)
- Model evaluation experiment – 20140917H1 (Evan Kalina)
- Coyote USA – 20140917H1 (Joe Cione)
- HS3/NOAA Global Hawk operations – 20140916-17 (Rob Rogers)
- Post-storm ocean and glider comparison 20140919I1 (Eric Uhlhorn)
- Caribbean Survey Ocean Glider/North Brazil Current Ring Experiment 20140919I1 (Johna Rudzin, RSMAS)
- Media (Erica Rule)
- Open discussion (all)
Slides from the debrief are available at:
Posted in HFIP-Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project, Data Assimilation, Presentations, Observations, Dynamics and Physics
Tagged P3, Doppler radar, G-IV, Robert F. Rogers, Jun A. Zhang, Jason P. Dunion, Sim D. Aberson, Altug Aksoy, Eric W. Uhlhorn, Air-sea interaction, boundary layer, dropwindsondes, Global Hawk, Joseph J. Cione, Unmanned Aerial Systems, AXBTs, AXCPs, AXCTDs, Media, COYOTE, Hurricane Edouard
Infrared satellite picture of Hurricane Jeanne at Florida landfall (NOAA)
On the night of Sept. 25, 2004, Hurricane Jeanne made landfall at Sewall’s Point, FL, just three weeks after Hurricane Frances came ashore near the same location. It was the last of four hurricanes to affect Florida that year, being preceded by Charley, Frances, and Ivan.
Hurricane Jeanne’s track (Wikipedia)
Jeanne began as a tropical wave which organized into a tropical depression prior to passing through the Lesser Antilles. Once west of the islands, it was upgraded to a tropical storm and then a hurricane after it made landfall in Puerto Rico. It skimmed along the north shore of Hispañola, which weakened it back down to a depression as it dumped tremendous rains on the mountains there. Over 3000 people died from flash floods and landslides. Turning north and moving over the Turks and Caicos, Jeanne seemed destined to recurve out to sea and do no more harm. But a high pressure ridge to its north stalled and then forced it into a clockwise loop. During this maneuver, Jeanne regained strength and began heading westward. As it struck Florida, the hurricane achieved its peak power, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (195 km/hr). Once ashore, Jeanne turned northwest and traveled up Florida and across Georgia before incorporating into a cold front as an extratropical low. All along its track, Jeanne produced heavy rains and flooding.
Hurricane Jeanne near its peak. MODIS satellite (NASA)
Damage from Jeanne was hard to assess since clean-up after Frances had not been complete. One estimate of US$7 billion would make Jeanne the 15th costliest hurricane on record. It was certainly the final sour note in Florida’s hurricane sonata for that year.
HRD participated in ten NOAA missions into Jeanne, after it had made its loop and began to intensify. Some of the research to come out of Jeanne:
- Environmental Ingredients for Supercells and Tornadoes within Hurricane Ivan Adam K. Baker, Matthew D. Parker, Matthew D. Eastin Weather and Forecasting Volume 24, Issue 1 (February 2009) pp. 223-244
- On Momentum Transport and Dissipative Heating during Hurricane Landfalls Jun A. Zhang, Ping Zhu, Forrest J. Masters, Robert F. Rogers, Frank D. Marks Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Volume 68, Issue 6 (June 2011) pp. 1397-1404
- A Comparison of Adaptive Observing Guidance for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones S. J. Majumdar, S. D. Aberson, C. H. Bishop, R. Buizza, M. S. Peng, C. A. Reynolds Monthly Weather Review Volume 134, Issue 9 (September 2006) pp. 2354-2372
- Eye and Eyewall Traits as Determined with the NOAA WP-3D Lower-Fuselage Radar Carl E. Barnes, Gary M. Barnes Monthly Weather Review Volume 142, Issue 9 (September 2014) pp. 3393-3417
- Tropical Cyclone Destructive Potential by Integrated Kinetic Energy Mark D. Powell, Timothy A. Reinhold Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 88, Issue 4 (April 2007) pp. 513-526
- THIRTY YEARS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RESEARCH WITH THE NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT Sim D. Aberson, Michael L. Black, Robert A. Black, Joseph J. Cione, Christopher W. Landsea, Frank D. Marks Jr., Robert W. Burpee Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 87, Issue 8 (August 2006) pp. 1039-1055
- A Parametric Model for Predicting Hurricane Rainfall Manuel Lonfat, Robert Rogers, Timothy Marchok, Frank D. Marks Jr. Monthly Weather Review Volume 135, Issue 9 (September 2007) pp. 3086-3097
- On the Limits of Estimating the Maximum Wind Speeds in Hurricanes David S. Nolan, Jun A. Zhang, Eric W. Uhlhorn Monthly Weather Review Volume 142, Issue 8 (August 2014) pp. 2814-2837
- Estimating Maximum Surface Winds from Hurricane Reconnaissance Measurements Mark D. Powell, Eric W. Uhlhorn, Jeffrey D. Kepert Weather and Forecasting Volume 24, Issue 3 (June 2009) pp. 868-883
- Turbulence Structure of the Hurricane Boundary Layer between the Outer Rainbands Jun A. Zhang, William M. Drennan, Peter G. Black, Jeffrey R. French Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Volume 66, Issue 8 (August 2009) pp. 2455-2467
- Wavelet Analyses of Turbulence in the Hurricane Surface Layer during Landfalls Ping Zhu, Jun A. Zhang, Forrest J. Masters Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Volume 67, Issue 12 (December 2010) pp. 3793-3805
- Air–Sea Enthalpy and Momentum Exchange at Major Hurricane Wind Speeds Observed during CBLAST Michael M. Bell, Michael T. Montgomery, Kerry A. Emanuel Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Volume 69, Issue 11 (November 2012) pp. 3197-3222
Posted in Observations
Tagged Chris Landsea, Eric W. Uhlhorn, Frank D. Marks, History, Hurricane Jeanne, Joseph J. Cione, Jun A. Zhang, Mark D. Powell, Michael L. Black, Robert A. Black, Robert F. Rogers, Robert W. Burpee, Sim D. Aberson