30th Anniversary of Hurricane Gloria

Hurricane Gloris, Sept. 24, 1985 (NOAA)

Hurricane Gloris, Sept. 24, 1985 near peak intensity (NOAA)

On September 27, 1985, Hurricane Gloria swept over the Outer Banks then rushed across Long Island, New England, and Canada.  It was the first significant hurricane to hit New England in twenty-five years and brought heavy rains and high winds to the Mid-Atlantic states as well.

Gloria began as a tropical depression over the Cape Verde Islands on Sept. 17th.  Although it soon reached tropical storm status and was named, it encountered unfavorable conditions and remained a marginal system for the next four days.  It wasn’t until the evening of the 21st, as it approached the Leeward Islands, that Gloria reached hurricane strength.  The next day, the hurricane took a northwesterly turn and passed north of the Virgin Islands.  As it did so, NOAA43 began a Synoptic Flow experiment out of San Juan, PR, where the aircraft dropped sondes around the storm in an effort to improve the track forecast.  Throughout the 23rd, Gloria kept on a steady course and steadily but slowly increase in strength.  On the afternoon of the 24th, both NOAA42 and NOAA43 flew Synoptic Flow missions around the hurricane as it began to quickly deepen into a major hurricane.  That night, Gloria reached its peak intensity, with maximum sustained winds estimated at 145 mph (230 km/hr).

Gloria was now due east of Miami, and NOAA42 flew a mission into it measuring its cloud particles.  Beginning early on Sept. 26th, as Gloria weakened and turned northward, the two NOAA aircraft began a series of Long Term Monitoring missions.  This is where one plane would monitor the storm for several hours, then be replaced by the other aircraft which would continue to fly into the storm, while the first plane refueled.  This continued on until midday of the 27th, as Gloria restrengthened just before hitting the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

Rainfall from Hurricane Gloria (NOAA/WPC)

Rainfall from Hurricane Gloria (NOAA/WPC)

By now, Gloria was coming under the influence of a low pressure trough approaching the east coast of the United States and its forward speed increased to 40 mph (64 km/hr), making its wind field very asymmetric. By the time of its landfall on Long Island, the maximum sustained winds were measured at 85 mph (140 km/hr) on its east side.  The storm surge reached 7 ft (2.1 m) at Battery Park on the southern tip of Manhattan.  Gloria quickly transitioned into an extratropical storm as it rushed across New England and the Canadian Maritimes, but it still packed a windy punch.  It downed trees and interrupted power for thousands of people throughout the region.  But the biggest impact was from the heavy rains Gloria brought from North Carolina to Maine.  The damage done by Gloria was US$900 million to the US and Canada and 14 deaths.  Confusion over messaging about Gloria led Environment Canada to form the Canadian Hurricane Centre in Nova Scotia in 1986.

Some research papers written by HRD scientist using Hurricane Gloria data:

Aberson, S. D., M. L. Black, R. A. Black, J. J. Cione, C. W. Landsea, F. D. Marks Jr., and R. W. Burpee, 2006: Thirty years of tropical cyclone research with the NOAA P-3 aircraft.   Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 1039–1055.

Eastin, M. D., P. G. Black, and W. M. Gray, 2002: Flight-Level Thermodynamic Instrument Wetting Errors in Hurricanes. Part I: Observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 825–841.

Kaplan, J., and M. DeMaria, 2001: On the Decay of Tropical Cyclone Winds after Landfall in the New England Area. J. Appl. Meteor., 40, 280–286.

Shapiro, L. J., and J. L. Franklin, 1999:  Potential vorticity asymmetries and tropical cyclone motion. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 124-131.

Montgomery, M. T., and J. L. Franklin, 1998:  An assessment of the balance approximation in hurricanes. J. Atmos. Soc, 55, 2193-2200.

Shapiro, L. J., 1996:  The motion of Hurricane Gloria:  A potential vorticity diagnosis.  Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 2497-2508.

Burpee, R. W., S. D. Aberson, J. L. Franklin, S. J. Lord, and R. E. Tuleya, 1996: The Impact of Omega Dropwindsondes on Operational Hurricane Track Forecast Models. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 925–933.

Franklin, J. L., S. E. Feuer, J. Kaplan, and S. D. Aberson, 1996: Tropical Cyclone Motion and Surrounding Flow Relationships: Searching for Beta Gyres in Omega Dropwindsonde Datasets. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 64–84.

Samsury, C. E., and E. J. Zipser, 1995: Secondary Wind Maxima in Hurricanes: Airflow and Relationship to Rainbands. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 3502–3517.

Shapiro, L. J. and J. L. Franklin, 1995: Potential Vorticity in Hurricane Gloria. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 1465–1475.

Lee, W.-C., F. D. Marks Jr., and R. E. Carbone, 1994: Velocity Track Display—A Technique to Extract Real-Time Tropical Cyclone Circulations Using a Single Airborne Doppler Radar. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 11, 337–356.

Shapiro, L. J., and M. T. Montgomery, 1993: A Three-Dimensional Balance Theory for Rapidly Rotating Vortices. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 3322–3335.

Franklin, J. L., S. J. Lord, S. E. Feuer, and F. D. Marks Jr., 1993: The Kinematic Structure of Hurricane Gloria (1985) Determined from Nested Analyses of Dropwindsonde and Doppler Radar Data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 2433–2451.

Franklin, J. L., and M. DeMaria, 1992: The Impact of Omega Dropwindsonde Observations on Barotropic Hurricane Track Forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 381–391.

Willoughby, H. E., 1990: Gradient Balance in Tropical Cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 265–274.

Willoughby, H. E., 1990: Temporal Changes of the Primary Circulation in Tropical Cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 242–264.

Franklin, J. L., S. J. Lord, and F. D. Marks Jr., 1988: Dropwindsonde and Radar Observations of the Eye of Hurricane Gloria (1985). Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 1237–1244.

10th Anniversary of Hurricane Rita

Hurricane Rita on Sept. 23, 2015 as it approached the coast.

Hurricane Rita on Sept. 23, 2015 as it approached the coast.

Early on the morning of September 24, 2005, Major Hurricane Rita came ashore near the Texas/Louisiana border.  In the midst of the very active 2005 hurricane season, Rita caused considerable panic as it approached the coast, with scenes of destruction from Hurricane Katrina still playing on TV news programs.  It left behind a swath of flooding, destruction, and death.

Rita formed from an African Easterly Wave, which emerged from the African coast on September 7th.  However, hostile conditions kept it from organizing into a tropical depression for the next ten days.  It wasn’t until it was north of Hispañola that the wave formed a closed circulation.  Within the day, NHC classified it a tropical storm and named it “Rita”.  It strengthened only slowly over the next two days as it moved over the Turks and Caicos and Bahama Islands.  At this time. the NOAA G-IV jet carried out a series of Synoptic Surveillance Flights to improve the computer-track guidance, and one of the NOAA P-3s flew a reconnaissance mission into the storm.  Rita then began a period of rapid intensification as it moved though the Florida Straits.  The hurricane passed within 45 miles (75 km) of Key West, as NOAA43 documented its strengthening, before entering the Gulf of Mexico.  As Rita reached Category 5 status, NOAA43 began a series of RAINEX experiments flown in conjunction with the Naval Research Laboratory’s (NRL) P-3 aircraft.  The G-IV continued the Synoptic Survey missions as Rita began to curve more northwesterly.  The next morning, Rita reached its peak intensity with maximum sustained wind speeds estimated at 180 mph (285 km/hr) by Air Force reconnaissance.  That afternoon, a 3-plane RAINEX experiment was flown with NOAA42, NOAA43, and the NRL P-3.

Rita’s winds began a slow decrease as it moved on a northwest track, seeming to take aim at Galveston and Houston. With only three weeks since Hurricane Katrina, panic swept many communities.  Many people who were not in evacuation zones took to the roads anyway and highways became clogged.  Between 90 to 120 deaths were blamed on the mass evacuations and a concurrent heat wave.  An estimated 3.5 million people evacuated ahead of Rita, a new record.

Three aircraft tracks for RAINEX experiment Sept. 23, 2015

Three aircraft tracks for RAINEX experiment Sept. 23, 2015

There was time for one more 3-plane RAINEX experiment on the 23rd, again with NOAA42, NOAA43, and the NRL aircraft.  There was also one final G-IV Synoptic Surveillance flight, in an effort to refine the track forecasts.  By the time of landfall, Rita’s maximum sustained winds had diminished to 120 mph (185 km/hr) and it had curved eastward from the Galveston/Houston area.  The storm surge was wide-spread and fell along the coastline of Louisiana and Texas.  Rita brought heavy rains to western Louisiana, but the storm quickly deteriorated as it moved inland and brought only moderate showers to the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys.  In total, Rita caused about 7 deaths directly and brought US$12 billion in destruction.  Rita damaged many petroleum related facilities in the Gulf and on land, extending the problems of the industry already struggling with the damage done by Katrina.

Some research papers written by HRD scientists from Hurricane Rita data:

Rozoff, C. M., C. S. Velden, J. Kaplan, J. P. Kossin, and A. J. Wimmers, 2015:  Improvements in the Probabilistic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification with Passive Microwave Observations. Wea. Forecast., 30, 1016–1038.

Hazelton, A. T., R. Rogers, and R. E. Hart, 2015:  Shear-relative asymmetries in tropical cyclone eyewall slope.  Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 883-903.

Klotz, B. W., and E. W. Uhlhorn, 2014:  Improved stepped frequency microwave radiometer tropical cyclone winds in heavy precipitation.  J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 31, 2392-2408.

Uhlhorn, E. W., B. W. Klotz, T. Vukicevic, P. D. Reasor, and R. F. Rogers, 2014:  Observed hurricane wind speed asymmetries and relationships to motion and environmental shear.  Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 1290-1311.

DiNapoli, S. M., M. A. Bourassa, and M. D. Powell, 2012:  Uncertainty and intercalibation analysis of H*Wind.  J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 29, 822-833.

Gopalakrishnan, S. G., S. Goldenberg, T. Quirino, X. Zhang, F. Marks Jr., K.-S. Yeh, R. Atlas and V. Tallapragada, 2012:  Toward improving high-resolution numerical hurricane forecasting:  Influence of model horizontal grid resolution, initialization, and physics.  Wea. Forecast., 27, 647-666.

Rogers, R., S. Lorsolo, P. Reasor, J. Gamache, and F. Marks, 2012: Multiscale analysis of troical cyclone kinematic structure from airborne Doppler radar composites.  Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 77-99.

Lorsolo, S., J. A. Zhang, F. Marks Jr., and J. Gamache, 2010: Estimation and mapping of hurricane turbulent energy using airborne Doppler measurements.  Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 3656-3670.

Bunya, S., J. C. Dietrich, J. J. Westerink, B. A. Ebersole, J. M. Smith, J. H. Atkinson, R. Jensen, D. T. Resio, R. A. Luettich, C. Dawson, V. J. Cardone, A. T. Cox, M. D. Powell, J. H. Westerink, and H. J. Roberts, 2010:  A high-resolution coupled riverine flow, tide, wind, wind wave, and storm surge model for Southern Louisiana and Mississippi.  Part I: Model development and validation.  Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 345-377.

Dietrich, J. C., S. Bunya, J. J. Westerink, B. A. Ebersole, J. M. Smith, J. H. Atkinson, R. Jensen, D. T. Resio, R. A. Luettich, C. Dawson, V. J. Cardone, A. T. Cox, M. D. Powell, H. J. Westerink, and H. J. Roberts, 2010:  A high-resolution coupled riverine flow, tide, wind, wind wave, and storm surge model for Southern Louisiana and Mississippi.  Part II:  Synoptic description and analysis of Hurricanes Katring and Rita. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 378-404.

Fierro, A. O., R. F. Rogers, F. D. Marks, and D. S. Nolan, 2009:  The impact of horizontal grid spacing on the microphysical and kinematic structures of strong tropical cyclones simulated with the WRF-ARW model.  Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 3717-3743.

Powell, M. D., E. W. Uhlhorn, and J. D. Kepert, 2009:  Estimating the maximum surface winds from hurricane reconnaissance measurements.  Wea. Forecast., 24, 868-883.

Uhlhorn, E. W., P. G. Black, J. L. Franklin, M. Goodberlet, J. Carswell, and A. S. Goldstein, 2007: Hurricane surface wind measurements from an operational stepped frequency microwave radiometer. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 3070-3085.

Powell, M. D., and R. A. Reinhold, 2007:  Tropical cyclone destructive potential by integrated kinetic energy.  Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 88, 513-526.

Rogers, R., S. Aberson, M. Black, P. Black, J. Cione, P. Dodge, J. Dunion, J. Gamache, J. Kaplan, M. Powell, N. Shay, N. Surgi, and E. Uhlhorn, 2006:  The Intensity Forecasting Experiment:  A NOAA multiyear field program for improving tropical cyclone intensity forecasts.  Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 87, 1523-1537.

Houze, R. A. Jr., S. S. Chen, W.-C. Lee, R. F. Rogers, J. A. Moore, G. J. Stossmeister, M. M. Bell, J. Cetrone, W. Zhao, and S. R. Brodzik, 2006:  The Hurricane Rainband and Intensity Change Experiment: Observations and modeling of Hurricanes Katrina, Ophelia, and Rita. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 87, 1503-1521.

Aberson, S. D., M. L. Black, R. A. Black, R. W. Burpee, J. J. Cione, C. W. Landsea, and F. D. Marks Jr., 2006:  Thirty years of tropical cyclone research with the NOAA P-3 aircraft.  Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 87, 1039-1055.

10th Anniversary of Hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Katrina near its peak intensity as seen on NOAA P3's radar

Hurricane Katrina near its peak intensity as seen on NOAA P3’s radar

Early on the morning of August 29th, 2005, Hurricane Katrina made landfall on the Louisiana delta region and the Mississippi coast.  The storm surge brought enormous damage to the Gulf Coast and, when the levees around New Orleans failed, a great number of fatalities.  Coming amidst the very busy 2005 hurricane season, Katrina brought death and destruction not seen in a U.S. land-falling hurricane in decades.

Katrina formed out of a complex interaction of a tropical wave, the mid-level remnants of Tropical Depression 10, and an upper-tropospheric trough.  The disturbed weather consolidated into a circulation on Aug. 24th over the Bahama Islands.  As it moved northward through the archipelago, it strengthened into a Tropical Storm then turned westward toward Florida.  As NOAA 43 flew a reconnaissance mission into Katrina, it reached hurricane strength, then swerved to a southwesterly course as it came ashore in south Florida.  The hurricane brought drenching rains up to 14 inches (35.5 cm) to the peninsula.

Katrina diminished only slightly during its trek across Florida.  Once it reached the warm Gulf of Mexico, it quickly regained hurricane status and began to rapidly intensify.  While NOAA 49 flew a series of Synoptic Surveillance missions, dropping sondes in an effort to improve the track-forecast models, NOAA 43 flew two missions into the hurricane during its intensification stage, once on the 27th and another on the 28th when Katrina reached Category 5 status with its winds reaching a peak sustained wind speed of 170 mph (275 km/hr).

NOAA 43 landfall mission

NOAA 43 landfall mission

Thankfully, the hurricane began a rapid weakening as it approached the Gulf Coast.  A landfall flight by NOAA 43 documented this decline and tracked the center as it passed over the Mississippi delta and made final landfall near the Louisiana/Mississippi border.  The highest sustained wind speeds at landfall were estimated by NHC at 120 mph (193 km/hr).  Even though the top winds were much less than before, the water pushed inland by the storm was great. Pass Christian, MS observed nearly 28 feet of surge, and the Gulf waters intruded six miles inland.  Ninety percent of buildings within a half mile of the coast suffered substantial damage, and thousands of structures were completely destroyed.

Animated radar of Katrina's landfall (NOAA/NCDC)

Animated radar of Katrina’s landfall (NOAA/NCDC)

However, it wasn’t until the hurricane eye had passed well inland that the levees that protected New Orleans began to fail.  Over 50 breeches in the defense opened up, flooding large portions of the city that lay below sea level.  Homes and businesses were inundated and would remain so for weeks after the storm, and over a thousand people who had not evacuated either drowned in this flood or in the days afterward from exposure or lack of water and food.  Katrina caused over US$100 billion in damage and an estimated 1800 people’s deaths.

The data collected from the NOAA research flights proved extremely important to researchers.  It helped them better understand how storms form, evolve, and change in intensity. This understanding  has led to improvements  in NOAA’s hurricane models and our ability to better prepare communities.  Some papers written by Hurricane Research Division scientists using Hurricane Katrina data:

HRD-ESRL/PSD seminar – Dr. Evan Kalina – 13 August 2015

Dr. Kalina presented a seminar “Plowable hailstorms and hurricanes: Using novel observing platforms to improve forecasts of extreme weather events”


New observing technologies, including dual-polarization radars, total lightning networks, and unmanned aircraft systems, are greatly enhancing our ability to monitor and predict severe and hazardous weather events.

In part 1 of this talk, I will discuss how the recently upgraded Denver, CO Weather Service Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) can be used in conjunction with the Colorado Lightning Mapping Array (COLMA) to detect and forecast accumulating hailstorms in northeast Colorado. Previous such hailstorms have triggered motor vehicle accidents, road closures, airport delays, urban flooding, and water rescues in the Denver metropolitan area. Radar data from these events demonstrate that accumulating hailstorms result from slow storm motions (< 10 m s-1) that cause exceptionally long hailfall durations (9-28 min versus 1-7 min for more typical hailstorms) at the location(s) that experience accumulating hail. A new algorithm will be presented that uses the radar-estimated hailfall duration and the hail mass concentration to estimate the hail depth on the ground. I will also show that the radar data provide evidence of distinct peaks in storm intensity that occur shortly prior to accumulating hail. These markers of storm intensity include the presence of reflectivities greater than 70 dBZ, descending columns of differential reflectivity (ZDR) and correlation coefficient (ρHV) as small as -4 dB and 0.4, respectively, maxima in 50 dBZ echo top height of 11-15 km MSL, the development of bounded weak echo regions (BWERs), and enhanced graupel production. The increase in graupel particles results in a large supply of hailstone embryos and also enhances cloud electrification through the non-inductive charging mechanism. Therefore, lightning data from COLMA depict peaks in lightning flash rate that coincide with hail accumulation.

In part 2, I will show how the Coyote Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) is being used to collect crucial meteorological data within the tropical cyclone boundary layer, a traditionally undersampled region of the hurricane. Two Coyote UAS flights in Major Hurricane Edouard (2014) collected pressure, temperature, moisture, and wind measurements in the eye, eyewall, and inflow layer, all within the lowest 1 km of the hurricane. Comparisons with dropsonde and airborne radar data demonstrate that the time-averaged Coyote data agree to within 1.4 m s-1 for winds, 0.4 °C for temperature, and 1.3 °C for dew point temperature. I will also present a preliminary comparison between the Coyote measurements and the boundary layer temperature and moisture fields used to initialize the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model for two of its Hurricane Edouard simulations.

The presentation is available on the anonymous ftp site:


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Joe Cione earns Department of Commerce Silver Medal

josephjcioneCongratulations to Joe Cione, part of the team to earn a Department of Commerce Silver Medal “for successfully executing the first-ever launch of an Unmanned Aircraft System from a manned aircraft into a major hurricane, Hurricane Edouard.”  The entire team includes AOML’s Erica Rule, as well as crew members from NOAA’s Office of Marine and Aviation Operations CDR Nancy Hann, CDR Kristie Twining, LCDR Justin Kibbey, James Roles, Jeff Smith, Steven Paul, Andrew Hornbeck, Joseph Bosko.  Congratulations to everyone!

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of July 2015

July’s science meeting consisted of 7 presentations:

  1. Hugh Willoughby (FIU) – Synthesis of Vortex Rossby Waves
  2. Lisa Bucci – Aircraft Simulation Study
  3. Jon Zawislak (FIU) – Evolution of the Thermodynamic Structure During Intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014)
  4. Evan Kalina – Sensitivity of dropsonde temperature and moisture analyses to the averaging time scale
  5. Joshua Wadler (Hollings scholar from U. Oklahoma) – Radial Variations in Convective Burst Structure in Tropical Cyclones from Airborne Doppler Observations
  6. John D’Alessandro (summer intern) – Simulating SFMR flight data from an HWRF model simulation of Hurricane Earl
  7. Kurt Hansen (Hollings scholar from SUNY Albany) – Downdrafts in Tropical Cyclones

All the presentations are available on the anonymous ftp site at:


Paper on the statistical prediction of hurricane rapid intensification released online in Weather and Forecasting

Summary: The paper describes new models to forecast the probability of when tropical cyclones may strengthen rapidly during the next 48 h when the National Hurricane Center issues watches and warnings to the public. The models are expected to be run during the latter portion of the 2015 Hurricane season.

Important Conclusions:

  • The new models are more skillful in predicting when a tropical cyclone may intensify rapidly than existing models.
  • The new models are far more accurate for systems located in the Eastern North Pacific region than those in the Atlantic.
  • Conditions in the Atlantic overall appear to be less favorable for rapid strengthening than in the East Pacific, and are therefore less predictable.
  • The new models show the potential to provide more accurate forecasts than provided by existing models.

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The paper can be accessed at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0032.1.

10th Anniversary of Hurricane Dennis

Hurricane Dennis on July 7th (NASA)

Hurricane Dennis on July 7th (NASA)

On July 8, 2005, Hurricane Dennis became one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes ever recorded in July.  It formed into a tropical depression on July 4th and struck the island of Grenada in the eastern Caribbean Sea.  It moved quickly northwestward while it strengthened.  It became a hurricane on July 6th while south of the island of Hispañola, then underwent rapid intensification.  By the 7th it was a Category Four hurricane, the earliest in the hurricane season that a tropical cyclone has been recorded at that strength.  Later that day, Dennis made landfall at Punta del Inglés, Cuba with sustained winds of 140 mph (220 km/hr).  While its strength dipped as it was briefly over land, its wind grew to 150 mph (240 km/hr) once it moved back over the Sea.  It then made a second landfall at Punta Mangles Altos, Cuba with as much force as it had struck Punta del Inglés.  Crossing Cuba reduced Dennis to Category One status, but in again rebounded once over the warm Gulf Loop Current north of the island.  As it tracked north-northwest toward the Florida/Alabama coast, its winds peaked at 145 mph (234 km/hr), but luckily diminished to 120 mph (195 km/hr) just prior to landfall.  The remnants of Dennis persisted for another three days as it meandered over the Midwest and Canada, dumping heavy tropical rains along the way.

Dennis 2005 track (Unisys)

Dennis 2005 track (Unisys)

38 people lost their lives when Dennis had its impact on Cuba and Haiti, and another 15 in the United States.  The storm caused an estimated US $4 billion in damages along its path.  The name Dennis was retired from the Atlantic lists.  Dennis was also a harbinger of the very busy 2005 hurricane season that would witness many new record-breaking storms.  Indeed, Hurricane Emily would surpass Dennis’ early-season record only six days later.

HRD flew many missions into Hurricane Dennis, and six manuscripts on the data have been published:

Kaplan, J., C. M. Rozoff, M. DeMaria, C. R. Sampson, J. P. Kossin, C. S. Velden, J. J. Cione, J. P. Dunion, J. A. Knaff, J. A. Zhang, J. F. Dostalek, J. D. Hawkins, T. F. Lee, and J. E. Solbrig, 2015:  Evaluating environmental impacts on tropical cyclone rapid intensification predictability utilizing statistical models.  Wea. and Forecast., in press.

Rozoff, C. M., C. S. Velden, J. Kaplan, J. P. Kossin, and A. J. Wimmers, 2015:  Improvements in the probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclone rapid intensification with passive microwave observations. Wea. and Forecast., in press.

Rogers, R., 2010:  Convective-Scale Structure and Evolution during a High-Resolution Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification.  J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 44-70.

Halverson, J., M. Black, R. Rogers, S. Braun, G. Heymsfield, D. Cecil, M. Goodman, R. Hood, A. Heymsfield, T. Krishnamurti, G. McFarquhar, M. J. Mahoney, J. Molinari, J. Turk, C. Velden, D-L. Zhang, E. Zipser, R. Kakar, 2007:  Nasa’s Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes Experiment.  Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 88, 867-882.

Rogers, R., S. Aberson, M. Black, P. Black, J. Cione, P. Dodge, J. Gamache, J. Kaplan, M. Powell, J. Dunion, E. Uhlhorn, N. Shay, N. Surgi, 2006:  The Intensity Forecasting Experiment: A NOAA Multiyear Field Program for Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts.  Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 87, 1523-1537.

DeMaria, M., J. A. Knaff, J. Kaplan, 2006:  On the Decay of Tropical Cyclone Winds Crossing Narrow Landmasses.  J. Appl. Met. Clim., 45, 491-499.