Paper on the difference between rapidly intensifying storms and those that don’t intensify as fast released online in Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Summary: The main model that forecasters use to predict what a hurricane will do is the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model. Because we cannot measure what is currently happening in the hurricane exactly, we run the model many times at once with different measurements to get an idea of the different forecasts that …

HRD Debrief for missions into Hurricanes Irma, Jose, and Maria – Part 2 – 19 October 2017

HRD researchers discussed the results from the 17 P-3, 13 G-IV, and 51 AF WC-130 missions into Hurricanes Irma, Jose, and Maria (3-8 September 2017). The agenda for the discussion was: HRD/AOML support for EMC operations (Paul Reasor) TDR-related issues, resolved and continuing (John Gamache) Data impacts on HWRF forecasts (Jason Sippel) Open discussion of …

HRD Debrief for missions into Hurricane Harvey – 1 September 2017

HRD researchers discussed the results from the four P-3, four G-IV, and one Global Hawk mission into Hurricane Harvey (23-25 August 2017). The agenda for the discussion was: Missions Overview (Paul Reasor) Science Discussions 20170824H1 TDR (Robert Rogers) 20170824H2 TDR (Jon Zawislak) 20170825H1 TDR (Robert Rogers) 20170825H2 TDR/OceanWinds (Jon Zawislak) Additional Field Program Issues HWRF …

HRD Seminar – Dr. Javier Delgado and Lisa Bucci, UM/CIMAS & HRD – 18 August 2017

Dr. Delgado and Ms. Bucci presented a seminar on "A 2 km Basin Scale Nature Run for a Hurricane Regional OSSE System". Abstract: A realistic Nature Run is the foundation to a useful Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework.  A high-resolution, Basin Scale Nature Run (BSNR) using the Non-hydrostatic Multiscale Model on the B grid …

HRD Debrief for missions into Hurricane Franklin – 15 August 2017

HRD researchers discussed the results from the two P-3 and one Global Hawk mission into Hurricane Franklin (8-9 August 2017). The agenda for the discussion was: Mission Overview (Reasor) Science Discussions 20170808H1 (Zawislak) 20170809H1 (Rogers) EMC input (Sippel) Additional field program issues Slides from the debrief are available at: ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/blog/meetings/2017/HFP/franklin17_debrief_main.pptx  

Mini-Dropwindsonde data from Global Hawk used in forecast models for the first time during Hurricane Franklin

For the first time, data from mini-dropwindsondes released by the Global Hawk aircraft were used by NOAA Global Forecast System to predict where Franklin might track, how strong it would get, and other weather around the globe.  A total of 48 mini-dropsondes were released by the Global Hawk on the morning and afternoon of 9 …

HRD Scientists brief NOAA Aircraft Operations Center personnel on IFEX 2017, Lakeland, FL – 19 July 2017

Intensity Forecast Experiment (IFEX) Program Director Paul Reasor and HRD Director Frank Marks briefed the Aircraft Operations Center (AOC) personnel at their brand new facility at Lakeland Linder Regional Airport on IFEX plans for 2017 and Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project progress, respectively. The two presentations are available in a .zip archive on the anonymous ftp …

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of July 2017

July’s science meeting consisted of 6 presentations: Steve Guimond (NASA) - "Reviving the Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler (IWRAP) for Hurricane Research: A Case Study of Hurricane Rita (2005)" Mu-Chieh (Laura) Ko - "Preliminary Review – HWRF-B 2016 Retrospective Dataset" Robert Rogers - "The Challenge of Intensity Forecasting in Moderate Shear" Emily Paltz (Hollings …