Highlights include the impact of GPS dropwindsonde data on forecasts, looking at uncertainties in the forecasts of Hurricane Dorian to understand and improve forecasts, and how vertical wind shear impacts intensity. The latest Keynotes is available at https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Jan-Mar-2023-AOML-Keynotes-Newsletter.pdf. For more information, contact aoml.communications@noaa.gov.
Tag: Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model
Paper on using machine learning to improve rapid intensification forecasts released online in Weather and Forecasting
A new machine learning (ML) model has the potential to provide rapid intensification (RI) forecasts that are better than those currently available. The paper highlights the importance of proper predictor selection and ML development. The approach taken in this project also sets guidelines for future relevant ML research. Figure 1. The performance of various models … Continue reading Paper on using machine learning to improve rapid intensification forecasts released online in Weather and Forecasting
Two papers summarizing the rapporteur report on recent improvements in tropical cyclone intensity change prediction from an operational perspective from IWTC-10 released online in Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
The two papers summarize the rapporteur report on recent improvements in tropical cyclone intensity change prediction from an operational perspective from the 10th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone in Bali, Indonesia. The first part focuses on recent improvements to dynamical models and the notable increase in operational intensity forecast skill. Ongoing challenges for further improving … Continue reading Two papers summarizing the rapporteur report on recent improvements in tropical cyclone intensity change prediction from an operational perspective from IWTC-10 released online in Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
Paper on how data from small unscrewed aircraft systems can improve tropical cyclone forecasts released online in Weather and Forecasting
This study represents the first time that observations from a small uncrewed aircraft system (sUAS) have been assimilated into the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast model (HWRF) used by specialists at the National Hurricane Center (what we call an operational model). Including these data has potential for improving initial analyses and forecasts of tropical cyclones. The data … Continue reading Paper on how data from small unscrewed aircraft systems can improve tropical cyclone forecasts released online in Weather and Forecasting
Paper on forecast improvements due to the use of dropwindsonde data published in Weather and Forecasting
A regional hurricane model is used to conduct the most comprehensive assessment of the impact of dropsondes on tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts to date. Dropsonde data can improve many aspects of TC forecasts if they are assimilated with sufficiently advanced techniques. Particularly notable is the impact of dropsonde data on TC-significant-wind-radii forecasts, since improving those … Continue reading Paper on forecast improvements due to the use of dropwindsonde data published in Weather and Forecasting
HRD participates in American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting
The world’s largest yearly gathering for the weather, water, and climate community took place earlier this month in Denver, Colorado. Scientists from NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory participated in the 103rd annual American Meteorological Society meeting from January 8 - 12 through formal presentations, posters, panel discussions, and more. AOML/CIMAS scientist Mu-Chieh (Laura) Ko … Continue reading HRD participates in American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting
Study on tropical cyclone forecast improvements due to data from the new Aeolus satellite published in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Summary: The Atmospheric Dynamics Mission - Aeolus was launched into space in August 2018, by the European Space Agency. It is the first satellite capable of observing wind velocity around the world from the surface to 30 km above. This study describes the impact of incorporating these wind observations into computer weather models on tropical cyclone … Continue reading Study on tropical cyclone forecast improvements due to data from the new Aeolus satellite published in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
NOAA flight captures intensifying Fiona
Eyewall of Hurricane Fiona as seen from Miss Piggy (NOAA43) On the night of September 19th, 2022, NOAA Hurricane Hunter "Miss Piggy" penetrated the eyewall of Hurricane Fiona as it emerged from the northern coast of Hispañola. The researchers onboard captured data of an intensifying storm as it moved toward the Turks and Caicos Islands. … Continue reading NOAA flight captures intensifying Fiona
Thirtieth anniversary of Hurricane Andrew’s landfall in South Florida
Hurricane Andrew made landfall on August 24, 1992, near Homestead, Florida, becoming one of the most catastrophic hurricanes in U.S. history. It had an extremely low central pressure of 922 millibars and maximum sustained wind speeds estimated at 165 miles per hour. The storm rapidly intensified less than 36 hours before landfall, leaving most residents less … Continue reading Thirtieth anniversary of Hurricane Andrew’s landfall in South Florida
HRD Monthly Science Meeting of August 2022
August's science meeting consisted of two presentations: Henry Winterbottom (ESRL/PSL): "Simulating Tropical Cyclones Within the Unified Forecast System (UFS): The Impacts of Nesting and TC Relocation" Stanley Goldenberg: "August Update for NOAA’s Outlook for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Methodology and Forecast" Copies of the two presentations are available here.
Hurricane Research Division 