To demonstrate how tropical cyclone research is used to improve forecast guidance HRD researchers Drs. Frank Marks, Robert Rogers, and Jason Sippel presented summaries of “NOAA’s Hurricane Research”, “Aircraft Observations of Tropical Cyclones”, and "Tropical Cyclone Modeling and Data Assimilation" to the World Meteorological Organization Regional Association IV Training Workshop held in the National Hurricane … Continue reading NOAA Hurricane Research overview for WMO Region IV Training Workshop, NHC – 26 February 2018
On October 29, 2012, Extratropical Cyclone Sandy (dubbed Superstorm Sandy by the media) made landfall at Brigatine, New Jersey bringing a massive storm surge to New Jersey and New York. It was the costliest storm for that hurricane season and the second costliest in recorded history. It was also an extraordinary study in complex transitions … Continue reading 5th Anniversary of Hurricane Sandy
Summary: When tropical cyclones move out of the tropics toward the poles, they reach areas where fronts exist and where the ocean, whose warm water fuels tropical storms, is relatively cool. When this happens, the storms go through extratropical transition (ET) and become like other storms in the mid latitudes. The storms can cause catastrophic … Continue reading Review of extratropical transition published in Monthly Weather Review
Warm water provides the energy for tropical cyclones to form and intensify, and knowing the temperature of the water is important in predicting how strong a hurricane will become. Dropwindsondes are instruments that measure air temperature, moisture, pressure, and wind velocity as they fall toward the ocean after release from Hurricane Hunter aircraft, but they … Continue reading Paper on a new dropwindsonde that measures sea surface temperature published in the Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology
Summary: HWRF is NOAA's primary model for tropical cyclone (tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes) forecast. The distance between places where forecasts are made in the model (the grid resolution) must be small to make accurate forecasts. However, the amount of computer power needed increases as these points get closer together. To save computer power, … Continue reading Paper on a new way to run forecast models with multiple hurricanes at the same time published in Weather and Forecasting
Altug Aksoy is quoted in a Wall Street Journal article about Monte Carlo simulations and the forecasts of Hurricane Sandy.
The article can be found at http://www.outsideonline.com/2041421/five-government-drone-projects-waging-research-not-war.
Michael presented a seminar “Evaluation of Hurricane Wind Field Forecasts from Global Models Within the TIGGE Archive“. Abstract: Short- and mid-range forecasts of select North Atlantic hurricanes over the past few seasons—including Sandy (AL182012), Gonzalo (AL082014), Irene (AL092011), and Isaac (AL092012)—are analyzed to quantify biases and error magnitudes found across a storm’s entire wind field. … Continue reading HRD seminar – Michael Kozar, Risk Management Solutions – 8 December 2015
Ms. Munsell presented a seminar “Dynamics and predictability of tropical cyclones evaluated through convection-permitting ensemble analysis and forecasts with airborne radar and sounding observations“. Abstract: Dynamics and predictability of tropical cyclones evaluated through convection-permitting ensemble analysis and forecasts with airborne radar and sounding observations. The dynamics and predictability of tropical cyclones (TCs) are assessed through the … Continue reading HRD seminar – Erin Munsell, PSU – 16 November 2015
Drs. Lin and Harris provided an overview of GFDL’s unified weather-climate modeling system with two-way regional-global nesting capability. Abstract: We are taking a "seamless" approach in the development of the next generation weather-climate model at GFDL. All the requirements for short-term numerical weather predictions and century long climate change projections are taken into consideration. In … Continue reading HRD seminar – S. J. Lin and Lucas Harris (NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)) – 10 June 2015