Study on forecasting the important area closest to the surface in hurricanes published in Weather and Forecasting

Forecasting turbulence is important in forecasting tropical cyclones (TCs). Turbulence is made up of random and continuously changing wind, in small areas 100 m or less across, but meteorologists forecast TCs using computer models on grids with each point several kilometers from each other. As turbulence is much smaller than these grids, it is typically … Continue reading Study on forecasting the important area closest to the surface in hurricanes published in Weather and Forecasting

HRD scientists participate in the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2021

The American Geophysical Union is holding their annual Fall Meeting 13-17 December in New Orleans, and also online. Every year, the Fall Meeting unites >25,000 attendees from 100+ countries in the Earth and space sciences community to discuss findings, connect scientists from around the world, advance the profession and connect over passion for the impact … Continue reading HRD scientists participate in the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2021

Study on improving tropical cyclone forecasts by improving the way turbulence near the surface is modeled published in the Journal of Geophysical Research

This paper shows that correctly representing the details of processes in model physics schemes can lead to big forecast skill improvement (up to 10 kt).  The large number of cases provide confidence in the results.  Summary: The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is the lowest part of the atmosphere, typically within about 1 km of the Earth’s surface. … Continue reading Study on improving tropical cyclone forecasts by improving the way turbulence near the surface is modeled published in the Journal of Geophysical Research

Study on the impact of the new CYGNSS satellites on hurricane forecasts published in Monthly Weather Review

Part of the difficulty of forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity (where the TC is going and how strong it will be) stems from the lack of frequent, accurate observations over tropical oceans where TCs form and develop. While Hurricane Hunter aircraft can collect vital observations in and near TCs, those observations are limited … Continue reading Study on the impact of the new CYGNSS satellites on hurricane forecasts published in Monthly Weather Review

HRD scientists participate in the 34th American Meteorological Society Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

34th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology Virtual Meeting The 34th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology was held virtually 10-14 May after being postponed from 2020. This is the premiere meeting for operational and research scientists who work on understanding and forecasting tropical cyclones and other tropical weather around the world. HRD scientist … Continue reading HRD scientists participate in the 34th American Meteorological Society Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Paper on how the ocean allowed for the intensification of Hurricane Michael to category-5 status before landfall published in the Journal of Geophysical Research – Oceans

Ocean observations showed very warm water at the surface and below, and computer simulations show that these ocean conditions supported intensification despite unfavorable atmospheric conditions. For more information on this study, contact aoml.communications@noaa.gov. Read the whole study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2020JC016969.

AOML holds virtual open house

AOML recently hosted a series of webinars about what AOML does and how it contributes to scientific advancement across the globe. You can catch Jon Zawislak, Rob Rogers, Joe Cione, and Shirley Murillo talking about hurricanes, or listen in on recordings of panels on coasts and coral reefs, and ocean research, and even a panel … Continue reading AOML holds virtual open house

Paper on the rapid intensification of Hurricane Michael published in Monthly Weather Review

Summary: The energy for tropical cyclones comes mainly from the warm ocean below them.  The warmer the water, the greater the energy, and the easier it is to transfer that energy (heat and moisture) into the air and into the tropical cyclone, allowing the thunderstorms that sustain the cyclone to develop.  Cool water (below about … Continue reading Paper on the rapid intensification of Hurricane Michael published in Monthly Weather Review