Paper on how getting turbulence correct in forecast models can improve intensity forecasts in sheared storms released online in Monthly Weather Review

Summary:  Though tropical cyclones (TCs) are usually hundreds of miles across, the strongest wind occurs in gusts that can be smaller than 100 yards across, or the size of a football field. We call features that cover such a small area the “turbulent scale.” Other features that are important in forecasting TCs can be as … Continue reading Paper on how getting turbulence correct in forecast models can improve intensity forecasts in sheared storms released online in Monthly Weather Review

Paper on low-level downdrafts and their impact on intensity published in Monthly Weather Review

Summary: In this study, we looked at radar, thermodynamic (temperature and humidity), and sea surface temperature data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hurricane Hunter and National Aeronautics and Space Administration aircraft in Hurricane Earl (2010). We found that there are different types of downdrafts (air moving downward) near the strongest part of the … Continue reading Paper on low-level downdrafts and their impact on intensity published in Monthly Weather Review

Paper on how eyewall replacement cycles start published in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Summary: When hurricanes become strong, they sometimes form a second eyewall around the main eyewall. This second ring of strong winds and heavy rain means that strong, damaging winds could cover a larger area than before. However, it also means that the storm might temporarily weaken. Understanding and predicting this process is therefore very important. … Continue reading Paper on how eyewall replacement cycles start published in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

AOML and HRD researchers at 33rd AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Ponte Vedra, FL – 15-20 April 2018

Thirty-one AOML and HRD scientists participated in the recent 33rd AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology in Ponte Vedra, FL, as authors or co-authors on 65 presentations and 19 posters. Roughly 783 presentations (507 oral presentations in 67 sessions and 276 posters in 2 session) were submitted to the conference. Of the 567 TC-related presentations … Continue reading AOML and HRD researchers at 33rd AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Ponte Vedra, FL – 15-20 April 2018

Paper on how small-scale changes in winds in hurricanes impact hurricane forecasts published in Weather and Forecasting

Summary: Forecasters and researchers use the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model to forecast where a hurricane will go, how strong and large it will be, and where the strongest winds will be. Wind in hurricanes are different over very short distances like 100 m, or the length of a football field, what is … Continue reading Paper on how small-scale changes in winds in hurricanes impact hurricane forecasts published in Weather and Forecasting

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of March 2018

March’s science meeting consisted of four presentations: Josh Wadler, UM/RSMAS: Downdrafts and the Evolution of Boundary Layer Thermodynamics in Hurricane Earl (2010) Before and During Rapid Intensification Ghassan Alaka: Evaluation of Track Spread in Hurricane Joaquin (2015) Heather Holbach: Dropsonde Wind Speed Comparison to SFMR at Coyote Flight Levels Kelly Ryan-Poterjoy: Coyote Thermodynamic Verification using … Continue reading HRD Monthly Science Meeting of March 2018

NOAA Hurricane Research overview for WMO Region IV Training Workshop, NHC – 26 February 2018

To demonstrate how tropical cyclone research is used to improve forecast guidance HRD researchers Drs. Frank Marks, Robert Rogers, and Jason Sippel presented summaries of “NOAA’s Hurricane Research”, “Aircraft Observations of Tropical Cyclones”, and  "Tropical Cyclone Modeling and Data Assimilation"  to the World Meteorological Organization Regional Association IV Training Workshop held in the National Hurricane … Continue reading NOAA Hurricane Research overview for WMO Region IV Training Workshop, NHC – 26 February 2018

Paper on the accuracy of surface windspeed analyses published in Monthly Weather Review

Summary:  Sometimes, the wind at the surface around a hurricane is the same around the storm center (what we call a symmetric pattern), and at other times, it is different (what we call an asymmetric pattern). In addition, sometimes the wind pattern stays the same, and sometimes it changes quickly. This study looks at how … Continue reading Paper on the accuracy of surface windspeed analyses published in Monthly Weather Review

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of May 2017

May’s science meeting consisted of 3 presentations: Jonathan Zawislak: Validation of tropical cyclone precipitation in HWRF using satellite observations Hua Chen - Azimuthal distribution of deep convection, environmental factors, and tropical cyclone rapid intensification: A perspective from HWRF ensemble forecasts of Hurricane Edouard Stephanie Stevenson (University of Albany/SUNY): Understanding intensity changes signaled by tropical cyclone lightning … Continue reading HRD Monthly Science Meeting of May 2017

HRD Seminar – Dr. Jason Dunion, CIMAS and AOML/HRD – 4 May 2017

Dr. Dunion presented a seminar titled  “The Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Cycle: The Great Hurricane Exhale". Abstract: New geostationary infrared satellite imagery has revealed a curious diurnal pulsing pattern in tropical cyclones (TCs) that may represent an unrealized, yet fundamental process of mature TCs.  These diurnal pulses begin forming in the storm's inner core near the time … Continue reading HRD Seminar – Dr. Jason Dunion, CIMAS and AOML/HRD – 4 May 2017