25th anniversary of first tropical cyclone track forecast from NOAA’s Global Model

At 00 UTC, a new implementation of NOAA’s global spectral model, then called the Aviation Model, produced a track forecast for Tropical Storm Andrew in the Atlantic.  Earlier in the year, the model was upgraded so that it now had a resolution of about 210 km, and it had 18 levels in the vertical.  Compare […]

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Mini-Dropwindsonde data from Global Hawk used in forecast models for the first time during Hurricane Franklin

For the first time, data from mini-dropwindsondes released by the Global Hawk aircraft were used by NOAA Global Forecast System to predict where Franklin might track, how strong it would get, and other weather around the globe.  A total of 48 mini-dropsondes were released by the Global Hawk on the morning and afternoon of 9 […]

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HRD seminar – Dr. Mike Fiorino, ESRL/GSD – 29 October 2015

Dr. Fiorino presented a seminar “Deterministic Tropical Cyclone Genesis in a Suite of Operational Global Models.  Part II: Verification and Spurious model TCs“. Abstract: In Part I of this paper, presented at NHC two days ago, we describe a data set of developing/non-developing tropical disturbances (‘pTCs’ for pre/potential TCs), and how this data set is […]

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HRD seminar – John Kaplan, AOML/HRD – 25 April 2014

John presented a seminar on two topics: (1) “Enhancements to the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index”; Abstract: Predicting episodes of tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI) remains one of the highest operational forecasting priorities of the National Hurricane Center (NHC). In recent years, a statistically based rapid intensification index (RII) that employs predictors from the SHIPS model […]

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HRD/NHC CHART seminar – Dr. Mike Brennan NHC – 14 February 2012

NHC Senior Hurricane Specialist Dr. Mike Brennan gave a seminar on “The Impact of Supplemental Dropwindsonde and Rawinsonde/Observations on Model Track Forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011)” Abstract As Hurricane Irene approached the east coast of the United States the NOAA G-IV jet flew 10 synoptic surveillance missions from 23-27 August, along with one surveillance mission flown […]

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Paper on the global impact of dropwindsonde data from the NOAA Hurricane Field Program and T-PaRC published in Monthly Weather Review

This paper can be accessed at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2011MWR3634.1

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Paper comparing how well different targeting techniques predict optimal sampling strategies to improve track forecasts published in Monthly Weather Review

This paper can be accessed at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010MWR3397.1

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