Study on the rapid intensification of Hurricane Dorian near the Eastern Caribbean published in Atmosphere

Summary:  We look at why Hurricane Dorian was able to intensify in the Eastern Caribbean when many forecasts suggested that it would stay weak and perhaps die out. To help answer this question, we use a forecast model called the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS).  Specifically, we use an ensemble, a group of forecasts … Continue reading Study on the rapid intensification of Hurricane Dorian near the Eastern Caribbean published in Atmosphere

HRD Scientists participate in 2020 Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Annual Meeting

The 2020 HFIP Annual Meeting was held virtually from 17-19 November. The primary objective of the meeting was to discuss the key HFIP strategies as documented in the HFIP Strategic plan, including development of the next-generation Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) within NOAA's Unified Forecast System. The current state of operational hurricane modeling capabilities … Continue reading HRD Scientists participate in 2020 Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Annual Meeting

A New Study Connects Greater Amounts of Cloud Ice in Tropical Cyclones to Intensification

A new study published in Geophysical Research Letters looks at the relationship between how fast a tropical cyclone intensifies and the amount of ice in the clouds that make up the storm. Hurricane scientists found that tropical cyclones with greater amounts of cloud ice are likely to intensify faster than those with less cloud ice.  Read more … Continue reading A New Study Connects Greater Amounts of Cloud Ice in Tropical Cyclones to Intensification

Paper on the relationship between the amount of ice in clouds and rapid intensification of hurricanes published in Geophysical Research Letters

Summary:  It is difficult to accurately forecast how strong a tropical cyclone will get, what we call intensity. The biggest problem is in forecasting when the intensity increases dramatically in a short period of time, or rapid intensification (RI).  This study looked at the relationship between how fast a tropical cyclone intensifies and the amount … Continue reading Paper on the relationship between the amount of ice in clouds and rapid intensification of hurricanes published in Geophysical Research Letters

AOML reviews science conducted during Hurricane Hunter missions into Laura

Hurricane scientists at AOML provided guidance and data support for National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) tasked reconnaissance into Hurricane Laura, identifying critical information about the system’s location, development, and intensification. Beginning on August 20th, 11 P-3 and 6 G-IV missions were conducted, capturing the complex lifecycle of Laura until its eventual … Continue reading AOML reviews science conducted during Hurricane Hunter missions into Laura

Paper on a new version of HWRF that follows more than one storm at a time published in Atmosphere

Satellite picture of four tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and East Pacific basins. The blue boxes represent high-resolution grids surrounding eachtropical cyclone in the new version of HWRF. Summary:  NOAA’s operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF) has become an important tool for both hurricane forecasters and researchers. HWRF has three domains around only … Continue reading Paper on a new version of HWRF that follows more than one storm at a time published in Atmosphere

2020 version of HWRF goes into operations

The 2020 version of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model went into operations at 1200 UTC on August 5, 2020. This highlights another excellent collaboration between NOAA's Environmental Modeling Center, HRD, and the Developmental Testbed Center to upgrade the model with the goal of delivering the best possible hurricane guidance to forecasters. The … Continue reading 2020 version of HWRF goes into operations

HRD scientists participate in workshop on NOAA’s new forecast model

Scientists from the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory Hurricane Research Division are participating in the first Unified Forecast System (UFS) Users Workshop held virtually July 27-29, 2020. UFS is a new Earth modeling system that is under active development to become NOAA's main operational numerical weather prediction model.  It is a single model that will make forecasts in local regions … Continue reading HRD scientists participate in workshop on NOAA’s new forecast model

NOAA Hurricane Model Performance is Evaluated for the First Time in Predicting Rainfall from 2017 Hurricane Harvey

On Posted onJuly 1, 2020 by AOML Communications to Hurricane Research A recent study published in the journal Atmosphere evaluated for the first time, how well NOAA’s regional hurricane model was able to forecast the location and amount of devastating rainfall in 2017’s Hurricane Harvey. The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model predicted the realistic total rainfall and the location of … Continue reading NOAA Hurricane Model Performance is Evaluated for the First Time in Predicting Rainfall from 2017 Hurricane Harvey