Highlights include the impact of GPS dropwindsonde data on forecasts, looking at uncertainties in the forecasts of Hurricane Dorian to understand and improve forecasts, and how vertical wind shear impacts intensity. The latest Keynotes is available at https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Jan-Mar-2023-AOML-Keynotes-Newsletter.pdf. For more information, contact aoml.communications@noaa.gov.
Tag: Ghassan J. Alaka
HRD scientists participate in 25th AVAPS Users Group Meeting
Worldwide users of Airborne Vertical Atmospheric Profiling System (AVAPS) gathered this past week in Boulder, Colorado, for their 25th annual group meeting. AVAPS is the over-arching system for dropwindsonde and other profiling systems used by numerous agencies around the world. Users meet to exchange important updates and improvements to AVAPS, share ideas and best practices, … Continue reading HRD scientists participate in 25th AVAPS Users Group Meeting
Paper on forecast improvements due to the use of dropwindsonde data published in Weather and Forecasting
A regional hurricane model is used to conduct the most comprehensive assessment of the impact of dropsondes on tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts to date. Dropsonde data can improve many aspects of TC forecasts if they are assimilated with sufficiently advanced techniques. Particularly notable is the impact of dropsonde data on TC-significant-wind-radii forecasts, since improving those … Continue reading Paper on forecast improvements due to the use of dropwindsonde data published in Weather and Forecasting
Paper on a new way to test the accuracy of tropical cyclone forecasts published in Weather and Forecasting
Evaluating the impact of observing systems, new modeling systems, or model upgrades on forecasts of tropical cyclones (TCs) is vital to ensure optimal forecast improvements. Differences between observations (what really happened) and forecasts are calculated and are called forecast errors. Historically, analyzing these errors involved just looking at average errors. Yet doing so can lead … Continue reading Paper on a new way to test the accuracy of tropical cyclone forecasts published in Weather and Forecasting
HRD participates in American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting
The world’s largest yearly gathering for the weather, water, and climate community took place earlier this month in Denver, Colorado. Scientists from NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory participated in the 103rd annual American Meteorological Society meeting from January 8 - 12 through formal presentations, posters, panel discussions, and more. AOML/CIMAS scientist Mu-Chieh (Laura) Ko … Continue reading HRD participates in American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting
Paper on the importance of radiation in predicting hurricane intensity published in Geophysical Research Letters
Better prediction of radiative heating in hurricane forecast models leads to better forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity. This is the first study to evaluate the importance of this radiation effect on TC forecast guidance; we found that better radiation forecasts improve prediction of hurricane intensification and genesis. Tropical cyclones (TCs) behave like heat engines, … Continue reading Paper on the importance of radiation in predicting hurricane intensity published in Geophysical Research Letters
HRD scientists participate in American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting
The American Geophysical Union held their annual Fall Meeting 12-16 December in Chicago, and also online. Every year, the Fall Meeting unites >25,000 attendees from 100+ countries in the Earth and space sciences community to discuss findings, connect scientists from around the world, advance the profession and connect over passion for the impact of science. … Continue reading HRD scientists participate in American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting
Study that shows improvements to hurricane models predict how the energy from the ocean transfers to the atmosphere underneath hurricanes published in Weather and Forecasting
This study examined how changes to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme based on information from large-eddy simulations affected hurricane model forecast performance during the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. The modified PBL scheme produced more realistic storm structures, on average, when compared to best-track information and observations from Hurricane Hunter Aircraft. The modified PBL physics … Continue reading Study that shows improvements to hurricane models predict how the energy from the ocean transfers to the atmosphere underneath hurricanes published in Weather and Forecasting
Meet HRD scientist Gus Alaka
Gus researches the relationship of the large-scale environment with hurricane formation and interactions between multiple storms. He also works closely with numerical hurricane models, including the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), which is #NOAA’s next-generation hurricane prediction system. He flies on Hurricane Hunter missions to collect critical data that improve hurricane forecasts. One of Gus’ … Continue reading Meet HRD scientist Gus Alaka
Review of aircraft missions into Hurricane Earl
NOAA conducted 20 aircraft missions into Hurricane Earl in late August and early September. The series of flights over 12 days was the longest series of flights into one system that NOAA has conducted. We recently reviewed these flights, and the slides from the review can be found here. Flight tracks of all the NOAA … Continue reading Review of aircraft missions into Hurricane Earl
Hurricane Research Division 