Study on improving tropical cyclone forecasts by improving the way turbulence near the surface is modeled published in the Journal of Geophysical Research

This paper shows that correctly representing the details of processes in model physics schemes can lead to big forecast skill improvement (up to 10 kt).  The large number of cases provide confidence in the results.  Summary: The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is the lowest part of the atmosphere, typically within about 1 km of the Earth’s surface. … Continue reading Study on improving tropical cyclone forecasts by improving the way turbulence near the surface is modeled published in the Journal of Geophysical Research

Study on how to improve model forecasts of the region closest to the ocean surface released online in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Summary:  Turbulence is made up of random and continuously changing wind.  It is important in tropical cyclones (TCs) because turbulence in the lowest 1-2 km of the free atmosphere (the planetary boundary layer or PBL) affects TC intensity and structural change. Meteorologists use computer models to forecast the weather, including TCs. These models forecast the … Continue reading Study on how to improve model forecasts of the region closest to the ocean surface released online in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of July 2021

July's science meeting consisted of five presentations: Sophie Grimsley (Lapenta Intern): "Project Check-in: Hurricane Intensity Change and Boundary Layer Processes" Nick Mesa (Lapenta Intern): "Investigating Intensity Changes Related to Thermodynamic Processes Using Near-coincident Aircraft and Satellite Observations" Laura Ko: "A Consensus Machine Learning Model for Hurricane RI Probabilistic Predictions" Sim Aberson: "Including High-Resolution AMVs in … Continue reading HRD Monthly Science Meeting of July 2021

Paper on the likely impact of new satellites on forecasts published in Monthly Weather Review

The Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) mission is a group of satellites that will provide observations of temperature, moisture, rainfall, and water particles in the atmosphere.  Planned for launch in 2022, the satellites will provide measurements that will be particularly important for studying tropical cyclones because … Continue reading Paper on the likely impact of new satellites on forecasts published in Monthly Weather Review

Jason Dunion, Frank Marks, and Rob Rogers participate in the WMO-sponsored Tropical Cyclone-Probabilistic Forecast Products Workshop

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) hosted a three-day virtual workshop on June 15, 17, and 18 to chart a path forward for evaluating, developing, and improving tropical cyclone probabilistic forecast products (TC-PFP). Co-led by Jason Dunion (NOAA/AOML/HRD and UM/CIMAS), Munehiko Yamaguchi (Japanese Meteorological Agency), and Hui Yu (Shanghai Typhoon Institute) as part of the WMO Working … Continue reading Jason Dunion, Frank Marks, and Rob Rogers participate in the WMO-sponsored Tropical Cyclone-Probabilistic Forecast Products Workshop

Frank Marks presents seminar on a new model to predict rainfall in tropical cyclones to NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center

Abstract: Heavy precipitation is a major hazard in landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). Historically, heavy rainfall has caused freshwater floods and mudslides during TC landfalls, accounting for 27% of deaths, and devastating property. Hence, improving current TC rainfall forecasts is indispensable. A new TC rainfall model is described that provides five-day probabilistic forecasts of extreme rainfall … Continue reading Frank Marks presents seminar on a new model to predict rainfall in tropical cyclones to NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center

HRD scientists participate in the 34th American Meteorological Society Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

34th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology Virtual Meeting The 34th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology was held virtually 10-14 May after being postponed from 2020. This is the premiere meeting for operational and research scientists who work on understanding and forecasting tropical cyclones and other tropical weather around the world. HRD scientist … Continue reading HRD scientists participate in the 34th American Meteorological Society Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of April 2021

April's science meeting consisted of four presentations: Xiaomin Chen: "Boundary Layer Recovery and Precipitation Symmetrization Preceding Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones under Shear" Andy Hazelton: "HAFS Ensemble of Hurricane Dorian (2019): Early Intensity and Long-Term Track" Jon Zawislak: "Accomplishments of NOAA's Airborne Hurricane Field Program and a Broader Future Approach to Forecast Improvement" Kathryn Sellwood: … Continue reading HRD Monthly Science Meeting of April 2021

Paper looking at how model forecasts of what is happening near the ocean surface in tropical cyclones changes as the space between forecast points gets smaller published in Monthly Weather Review

The energy that fuels tropical cyclones comes from heat and moisture from the warm ocean below.  This energy is transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere and the momentum is transported from atmosphere to surface by what we call turbulent processes in the atmosphere near the ocean surface (what we call the planetary boundary layer … Continue reading Paper looking at how model forecasts of what is happening near the ocean surface in tropical cyclones changes as the space between forecast points gets smaller published in Monthly Weather Review