HRD Monthly Science Meeting of April 2018

April’s science meeting consisted of five presentations: Andrew Kren - Impact of Global Hawk dropsonde data assimilated in the NCEP GFS model during SHOUT: Hurricanes Matthew and Nicole in 2016 Hui Christophersen - Impact of Global Hawk Dropsondes on Tropical Cyclone Analyses and Forecasts Sim Aberson -  1-km HEDAS analysis of Hurricane Patricia just after peak …

HRD Seminar – Dr. Michael Vellinga, Met Office, United Kingdom – 12 March 2018

Dr. Vellinga presented a seminar titled “The impact for tropical storm forecasts of upgrades to UK Met Office prediction systems”. Abstract The past two years have seen various upgrades to the UK Met Office's operational prediction systems, including a near-doubling of horizontal resolution in the global deterministic forecast model to 10 x 12km. I will …

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of March 2018

March’s science meeting consisted of four presentations: Josh Wadler, UM/RSMAS: Downdrafts and the Evolution of Boundary Layer Thermodynamics in Hurricane Earl (2010) Before and During Rapid Intensification Ghassan Alaka: Evaluation of Track Spread in Hurricane Joaquin (2015) Heather Holbach: Dropsonde Wind Speed Comparison to SFMR at Coyote Flight Levels Kelly Ryan-Poterjoy: Coyote Thermodynamic Verification using …

NOAA Hurricane Research overview for WMO Region IV Training Workshop, NHC – 26 February 2018

To demonstrate how tropical cyclone research is used to improve forecast guidance HRD researchers Drs. Frank Marks, Robert Rogers, and Jason Sippel presented summaries of “NOAA’s Hurricane Research”, “Aircraft Observations of Tropical Cyclones”, and  "Tropical Cyclone Modeling and Data Assimilation"  to the World Meteorological Organization Regional Association IV Training Workshop held in the National Hurricane …

HRD Seminar – Scott B. Sieron, Pennsylvania State University – 12 February 2018

Scott presented a seminar titled  “Mesoscale tropical cyclone model EnKF data assimilation of all-sky satellite radiances: advancing from IR to microwave”. Abstract Development with the WRF tropical cyclone configuration and EnKF data assimilation system at Penn State is ongoing towards supporting the direct assimilation of top-of-atmosphere microwave emission observations in all sky conditions. These observations relate …

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of February 2018

February’s science meeting consisted of three presentations: Rob Rogers: The relationship between tropical cyclone structure and intensification in moderate vertical shear Jon Zawislak: 2018 NOAA/AOML/HRD Hurricane Field Program Intensity Forecast Experiment (IFEX): Overview of Experiment Design Pete Black: Emerging Airborne Technologies for improved TC Track and Intensity Forecasting: Preliminary Observations from SHOUT and EPOCH All the …

HRD Seminar – Michael Fischer, University of Albany/SUNY – 9 February 2018

Michael presented a seminar titled  “Normalized Convective Characteristics of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Events in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific”. Abstract The relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) convective characteristics and TC intensity change is explored using infrared and passive microwave satellite imagery of TCs in the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins from …

Paper on the difference between rapidly intensifying storms and those that don’t intensify as fast published in Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Summary: The main model that forecasters use to predict what a hurricane will do is the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model. Because we cannot measure what is currently happening in the hurricane exactly, we run the model many times at once with different measurements to get an idea of the different forecasts that …

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of January 2018

January’s science meeting consisted of three presentations: Jon Zawislak:  Preliminary results on the sources of condensate in the hurricane outflow layer Sim Aberson:  Observations of gravity waves in tropical cyclones Jason Dunion:  Assessing tropical cyclone intensity change in moderate vertical wind shear using dropsondes: thermodynamics of the lower troposphere All the presentations are available on …

HRD Seminar – Dr. Morgan O’Neill, T. C. Chamberlin Postdoctoral Fellow, University of Chicago – 14 November 2017

Dr. O'Neill presented a seminar on “Diurnal gravity waves as a probe of hurricanes’ internal structure“. Abstract: Satellite observations of cloudy hurricane canopies have shown a universal, daily, wave-like feature that propagates radially outward, as far as 600 km (Dunion et al. 2014). Daytime solar heating of a hurricane’s upper eyewall is surely responsible, but …