New study on how changes in ocean temperature near the coast during landfall can intensify hurricanes released online in Geophysical Research Letters

This study uses a state-of-the-art hurricane modeling system developed at the NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory’s Hurricane Research Division, the Basin-Scale Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF-B) model, to demonstrate a link between an oceanographic process called coastal downwelling and the intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs or hurricanes) near landfall. We show that coastal downwelling … Continue reading New study on how changes in ocean temperature near the coast during landfall can intensify hurricanes released online in Geophysical Research Letters

Study on forecasting the important area closest to the surface in hurricanes published in Weather and Forecasting

Forecasting turbulence is important in forecasting tropical cyclones (TCs). Turbulence is made up of random and continuously changing wind, in small areas 100 m or less across, but meteorologists forecast TCs using computer models on grids with each point several kilometers from each other. As turbulence is much smaller than these grids, it is typically … Continue reading Study on forecasting the important area closest to the surface in hurricanes published in Weather and Forecasting

Study on how ocean surface waves influence the part of the atmosphere closest to the surface published in The Journal of Physical Oceanography

For more information, contact aoml.communications@noaa.,gov. The full paper can be found at https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/phoc/aop/JPO-D-21-0164.1/JPO-D-21-0164.1.xml. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41806028, 41830533, 41606024); the National Basic Research Program of China, Monitoring and Forecasting of Finescale Structure and Impact Assessment of Landfalling Typhoons (2015CB452800) and the Construction Project of the National … Continue reading Study on how ocean surface waves influence the part of the atmosphere closest to the surface published in The Journal of Physical Oceanography

Study on improvements to NOAA’s hurricane forecast model and the way it predicts the region closest to the surface published in Weather and Forecasting

We modified the way NOAA’s new hurricane model forecasts what happens in the lowest part of the atmosphere based on observations from Hurricane Hunter research flights. The new scheme produced track forecasts that were up to 20% better than from the older scheme, a 15% improvement in detection of rapid intensification events, and smaller tropical … Continue reading Study on improvements to NOAA’s hurricane forecast model and the way it predicts the region closest to the surface published in Weather and Forecasting

HRD scientists participate in the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2021

The American Geophysical Union is holding their annual Fall Meeting 13-17 December in New Orleans, and also online. Every year, the Fall Meeting unites >25,000 attendees from 100+ countries in the Earth and space sciences community to discuss findings, connect scientists from around the world, advance the profession and connect over passion for the impact … Continue reading HRD scientists participate in the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2021

Study on improving tropical cyclone forecasts by improving the way turbulence near the surface is modeled highlighted in EOS

Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Read the highlight at https://eos.org/editor-highlights/hurricane-forecast-improvement-with-better-turbulent-processes. Read more about this study at https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2021/09/30/study-on-improving-tropical-cyclone-forecasts-by-improving-the-way-turbulence-near-the-surface-is-modeled-published-in-the-journal-of-geophysical-research/. For more information, contact aoml.communications@noaa.gov.

Study on how the direction of wind shear impacts tropical cyclone intensity published in Monthly Weather Review

This is the first study to examine how the direction of the wind shear changes how much heat and moisture is available to the TC and how it influences TC intensity change.  These results provide TC forecasters another tool to predict intensity change. ■ Summary:  The amount of wind shear, the change of winds with … Continue reading Study on how the direction of wind shear impacts tropical cyclone intensity published in Monthly Weather Review

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of October 2021

October's science meeting consisted of six presentations: Xiaomin Chen: A Framework for Simulating the Tropical-Cyclone Boundary Layer Using Large-Eddy Simulation Sim Aberson: Sally:  An Aborted Attempt to Form an Aligned Vortex? Kathryn Sellwood: Assimilation of Coyote Observations with HWRF GSI Jon Zawislak: Summary of NASA's CPEX-AW Field Campaign Lisa Bucci: Comparison of Aeolus Observations to NOAA Dropsondes Kyle Ahern: How were … Continue reading HRD Monthly Science Meeting of October 2021

Study on improving tropical cyclone forecasts by improving the way turbulence near the surface is modeled published in the Journal of Geophysical Research

This paper shows that correctly representing the details of processes in model physics schemes can lead to big forecast skill improvement (up to 10 kt).  The large number of cases provide confidence in the results.  Summary: The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is the lowest part of the atmosphere, typically within about 1 km of the Earth’s surface. … Continue reading Study on improving tropical cyclone forecasts by improving the way turbulence near the surface is modeled published in the Journal of Geophysical Research