Paper on the impact of ocean surface waves in intensity forecasts published in The Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans

Ocean surface waves affect the exchange of momentum and energy between the ocean and the atmosphere.  However, the impact on tropical cyclone intensity and structure in fully coupled numerical models has not been well-understood. This study used a regional atmosphere-ocean-wave coupled model to study the wave impacts.  Simulations of 21 real tropical cyclones were conducted. …

Study relating the structure of the area in a tropical cyclone closest to the surface and intensity released online in Monthly Weather Review

The study analyzes Doppler radar profile analyses to advance our understanding of how and why tropical cyclones intensify or weaken in relation to the shape of the vortex (whether the wind field is narrow or broad) and boundary-layer structure.  Example of a mean composite of only the radial wind velocity from airborne Doppler wind profile …

Making the Unpredictable Predictable in Hurricane Forecasts

The chaotic, swirling winds just above the ocean as a hurricane develops play a key role in how strong a storm might be when it reaches land. Helping forecasters better account for this seemingly unpredictable wind turbulence that drives a hurricane's intensity is what scientists with the Northern Gulf Institute and NOAA are doing. Their …

Study of how accurate forecast models are in the region close to the ocean surface published in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Poor modeling of hurricane boundary layer turbulence in computer models is a key obstacle to improving hurricane intensity forecasts. This study uses a recently developed modeling framework based on a large-eddy simulation, or LES, (where model grids are small enough to resolve turbulence) to evaluate the pros and cons of four different planetary boundary layer …

Paper investigating the effects of grid resolution, horizontal turbulence models, and horizontal mixing length on real hurricane forecasts published online in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Physical parameterizations in computer models need to consider the unique structures of tropical cyclones. The study helps us understand turbulent mixing to advance how we account for it in our forecast model parameterizations to improve forecasts. Summary: Tropical cyclones are fueled by the heat from the warm ocean below.  This heat energy moves upward into …

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of June 2022

June's  science meeting consisted of seven presentations: Stanley Goldenberg: NOAA’s May Outlook for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Methodology & Forecast Bachir Annane: A Catastrophe Model for Assessing Wind and Flood Hazard Risk for Florida Kathryn Sellwood: Assimilation of Coyote sUAS Observations Using Operational HWRF in Hurricane Maria William Ramstrom: Moving Nest Implementation for NOAA's …

Article on wind and turbulence near the surface in landfalling tropical cyclones published in Nature Scientific Reports

This study examines the structure of the part of the atmosphere closest to the surface in a landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) using land-based tower observations. Turbulence is made up of random and continuously changing wind that mixes the atmosphere allowing the energy from the warm ocean below to move upward and fuel the hurricane.  Observations …

Xiaomin Chen receives Northern Gulf Institute Research Award

Xiaomin Chen, center, 2022 recipient of the Mississippi State University Northern Gulf Institute Research Award, with NGI Associate Director Jamie Dyer, left, and NGI Director Robert Moorhead, right. HRD and Northern Gulf Institute (NGI) scientist Dr. Xiaomin Chen is a recipient of the NGI Research Award, an honor instituted in 2020 to recognize outstanding research …

New study on how landfalling hurricanes can change ocean temperatures near the coast causing the hurricane to intensify published in Geophysical Research Letters

This study uses a state-of-the-art hurricane modeling system developed at the NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory’s Hurricane Research Division, the Basin-Scale Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF-B) model, to demonstrate a link between an oceanographic process called coastal downwelling and the intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs or hurricanes) near landfall. We show that coastal downwelling …

Study on forecasting the important area closest to the surface in hurricanes published in Weather and Forecasting

Forecasting turbulence is important in forecasting tropical cyclones (TCs). Turbulence is made up of random and continuously changing wind, in small areas 100 m or less across, but meteorologists forecast TCs using computer models on grids with each point several kilometers from each other. As turbulence is much smaller than these grids, it is typically …