The purpose of the observation team meetings is to bring together the people who use observations in their research on a regular basis to discuss issues they’re having, provide updates on observations they’re analyzing or collecting, and any other information that may be of interest to the broader group. These meetings are also an excellent opportunity to integrate all of the many uses of observations in HRD’s capacity to improve the understanding and prediction of tropical cyclones.
Agenda for January 2017:
- Update on 2017 HFP (Paul Reasor)
- Coyote, IR/BT comparison, West Pacific updates (Joe Cione)
- DWL/dropsonde comparisons (Lisa Bucci)
- HIRAD observations for initialization of the HWRF vortex (Kathryn Sellwood)
The presentation from the meeting is available on the anonymous ftp site: ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/blog/meetings/2017/Observations/HRD_ObsMeet_20170119.pptx.
Posted in Data Assimilation, HFIP-Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project, Observations, Presentations
Tagged Air-sea interaction, COYOTE, Doppler radar, dropwindsondes, Gulfstream-IV (G-IV), Hurricane Ensemble Data Assimilation System (HEDAS), Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model, Joseph J. Cione, Kathryn J. Sellwood, Lisa R. Bucci, P3, Paul D. Reasor
The HFIP program is coordinated through 3 strategic planning teams (Model Development, Data Assimilation/Ensemble, and Post Processing and Verification Development) and 3 tiger teams (High Resolution Physics, Ensemble Product, and Ocean Model Impact). The HFIP strategic planning teams develop our multi-year strategy for improving hurricane forecast guidance, while the tiger teams are responsible for overseeing the development of specific new capabilities for the hurricane forecast guidance system. The goal of the Annual Review is to assess the past year’s accomplishments and to develop an integrated plan for next year that includes involvement across NOAA and from the community outside NOAA that leads to progress toward the overall HFIP goals. This meeting will provide updates from the various teams and discuss the NOAA strategy to address the hurricane problem under the Next Generation Global Prediction System developments. The agenda can be found here.
HRD scientists Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, Frank Marks, and Xuejin Zhang provided invited presentations available here.
Posted in Data Assimilation, Dynamics and Physics, HFIP-Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project, Modeling and Prediction, Observations, Presentations
Tagged Air-sea interaction, boundary layer, convection, cyclogenesis, Doppler radar, dropwindsondes, Frank D. Marks, Hurricane Hermine, Hurricane Matthew, Hurricane Nicole, Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model, landfall, rapid intensity change, satellite, Sundararaman G. Gopalakrishnan, vertical shear, Xuejin Zhang
HRD researchers Drs. Frank Marks and Sundaraman Gopalakrishnan attended TROPMET 2016 Climate Change and Coastal Vulnerability organized by the Indian Meteorological Society (IMS) held at Siksha ‘O’ Anusandhan University, Bhubaneswar, Odisha to present an overview of NOAA’s hurricane research under the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP).
Copies of the slides from Drs. Marks’s and Gopalakrishnan’s presentations are available on the anonymous ftp site at ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/blog/seminars/2017/TROPMET-2016.zip.
Posted in HFIP-Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project, Modeling and Prediction, Observations, Presentations
Tagged Air-sea interaction, boundary layer, Doppler radar, dropwindsondes, Frank D. Marks, Hurricane Earl, Hurricane Edouard, Hurricane Matthew, Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model, P3, rapid intensity change, Sundararaman G. Gopalakrishnan, Unmanned Aerial Systems, vertical shear
HRD Director Frank Marks gave an invited presentation at the Pauline (Polly) Austin Centenary Celebration, along with other former students of Mrs. Austin (as she was known to her students): Prof. Howie Bluestein, Prof. Robert Houze, Dr. Marilyn Wolfson, and Robert Copeland. Modern meteorology would not be what it is today without the contributions from Mrs. Austin (MIT PhD ’42) during her greater than 30-year stint as the Director of MIT’s Weather and Radar Research Project. MIT recognized her influence on the field of weather radar with this centennial celebration.
The slides from Dr. Marks’ presentation are available on the anonymous ftp site: ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/blog/seminars/2017/Marks_Austin_20161201_2.pptx.
In February, 1982, The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences published a ground-breaking study by Hugh Willoughby, Jean Clos, and Mohammed Shoreibah on what became to be known as the eyewall replacement cycle. Using data obtained from NOAA P3 flights into very intense Hurricanes Anita, David and Allen, they found that a common feature of intense tropical cyclones was a second ring of convection around the primary eyewall and that this second ring also had a wind-speed maximum. This second ring contracts while starving the inner ring of moisture and energy, so the second ring eventually replaces the first one as the eyewall, and the process can repeat. They also found that the appearance of the second ring marks the end of a period of intensification, enabling improved intensity forecasts.
This historic paper can be found at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0469%281982%29039%3C0395%3ACEWSWM%3E2.0.CO%3B2.
Posted in HFIP-Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project, Modeling and Prediction, Observations, Publications
Tagged Eyewall replacement cycle, History, Hugh Willoughby, Hurricane Allen, Hurricane Anita, Hurricane David, J. A. Clos, M. G. Shoreibah, P3, Typhoon Bess, Typhoon Billie, Typhoon Georgia, Typhoon Irma, Typhoon Patsy
In October 2015, off the west coast of Mexico, Hurricane Patricia became the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the western hemisphere, intensifying faster than any other storm on record. A unique set of observations were collected in Patricia. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Office of Naval Research (ONR) aircraft flew into and above Patricia from its birth to landfall in Mexico, and on-the ground measurements were obtained during Patricia’s landfall. This paper summarizes the life of Patricia and the observations gathered.
Important Conclusions: (two – three)
- NOAA and ONR aircraft flew into and above Patricia during its entire lifetime, providing unprecedented views of Patricia’s wind, temperature, and moisture from the ocean surface to above the top of the storm. Storm chasers in the path of Patricia’s landfall also collected surface pressure measurements.
- These observations showed that Hurricane Patricia was a historic storm that broke many records:
|Fastest 10-s sustained surface wind speed measured by aircraft
||94 m s-1 (182 kt; 210 mph)
|Fastest 10-s flight-level wind speed measured by aircraft
||99 m s-1 (192 kt; 221 mph) (tied with Supertyphoon Megi 2010)
|Lowest minimum pressure measured by aircraft
||879 mb (25.96 in)
|Warmest 700-hPa temperature measured by aircraft
||32.2° C (90° F)
|Fastest best-track maximum sustained wind speed
||95 m s-1 (185 kt; 213 mph)
|Lowest best-track minimum pressure
||872 hPa (25.75 in)
|Most rapid best-track intensification rate
||97 hPa (2.86 in), 54 m s-1 (105 kt; 120 mph) in 24 h
(97 hPa in 24 h ties Hurricane Wilma 2005)
|Most rapid over-water weakening rate
||54 hPa (1.59 in), 26 m s-1 (50 kt; 57.5 mph) in 5 h
|Strongest updraft measured by dropsonde
||27.4 m s-1 (53 kt; 61 mph)
|Highest Advanced Dvorak Technique T-number
||T8.4 (94 m s-1;182 kt; 210 mph)
- The data will be used to study what caused this record-breaking storm, and will help to improve forecasts of these systems.
Posted in HFIP-Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project, Impacts, Modeling and Prediction, Observations, Publications
Tagged Doppler radar, dropwindsondes, Hurricane Ensemble Data Assimilation System (HEDAS), Hurricane Patricia, landfall, P3, rapid intensity change, Robert F. Rogers, Sim D. Aberson