HRD Monthly Science Meeting of February 2017

February’s science meeting consisted of 7 presentations:

  1. Bachir Annane: Impact of Simulated CYGNSS Ocean Surface Winds on Tropical Cyclone Analyses and Forecasts in a Regional OSSE Framework
  2. Mark Leidner (AER): Creating Vector Winds from Simulated CYGNSS Ocean Surface Wind Speed Retrievals Using Variational Analysis
  3. Brittany Dahl: Impact of Global Hawk Observing Strategies on Vortex-Scale Tropical Cyclone Analyses and Forecasts in an OSSE Framework
  4. Addison Alford (University of Oklahoma): An Update on the SMART Radar Observations of Hurricane Matthew
  5. Brian McNoldy (UM/RSMAS): An Evaluation of Satellite-Derived Atmospheric Motion Vector (AMV) Characteristics Using TCI HDSS Dropsondes
  6. Paul Reasor: Eddy contributions to the spin-up of a vertically-sheared TC in an axisymmetric balance model
  7. Heather Holbach: Preliminary Analysis of HIRAD Data

All the presentations are available on the anonymous ftp site at: ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/blog/meetings/2017/Science/HRD_SciMeeti_20170209.zip

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HRD & AOML researchers at 97th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, Seattle, WA – 23-27 January 2017

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Abstracts and recordings of  the 25 presentations and 6 posters AOML & HRD researchers presented (or were co-authors) at the 97th AMS Annual Meeting are available online from the AMS website:

Presentations:

  1. Bachir Annane B. D. McNoldy, S. M. Leidner, R. N. Hoffman, R. Atlas, and S. J. Majumdar, Impact of Simulated CYGNSS Ocean Surface Winds on Tropical Cyclone Analyses and Forecasts in a Regional OSSE Framework
  2. Altug Aksoy, J. Cione, B. Dahl, K. Ryan, H. Christophersen, and R. Atlas, Evaluating the Impact of Hurricane Observations from the Unmanned Coyote Aircraft in Observing System Simulation Experiments
  3. Robert Atlas, Core Science Keynote on Observing System Simulation Experiments (Invited Presentation)
  4. Peter G. Black, J. P. Dunion, G. A. Wick, L. Cucurull, J. J. Coffey, J. Sippel, A. Aksoy, and J. R. Walker, NOAA’s Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) Project: Strategies for Improving and Augmenting Existing Satellite and Manned Aircraft Observations with Recent Pacific El Niño and Atlantic Hurricane Rapid Response Global Hawk Flights
  5. William J. Blackwell, S. A. Braun, R. Bennartz,  C. S. Velden, M. DeMaria, R. Atlas, J. P. Dunion, F. D. Marks Jr., and R. F. Rogers, The Tropics Smallsat Tropical Cyclone Mission: High Temporal Resolution Microwave Imagery As Part of Nasa’s Third Earth Venture-Instrument (EVI-3) Program
  6. Lisa Bucci, D. Emmitt, C. O’Handley, J. Zhang, K. Ryan, and R. Atlas, Impacts of an Airborne Doppler Wind Lidar on Tropical Cyclone Analyses and Forecasts
  7. Sean Casey, R. Atlas, R. N. Hoffman, L. Cucurull, and N. Shahroudi, Global OSSEs for Error-Added Geo-Hyper IR (IASI) Observations
  8. Hui Christophersen, A. Aksoy, J. P. Dunion, R. Atlas, K. Sellwood, and B. Dahl, Use of Global Hawk Observations in Combination with Satellite Observations for Optimal Tropical Cyclone Analyses and Forecasts
  9. Joe Cione, K. Twining, M. Silah, A. Brescia,  E. A. Kalina, A. Farber, C. Troudt, A. Ghanooni, B. B. Baker, E. J. Dumas Jr., T. Hock, J. A. Smith, J. French, C. W. Fairall, G. deBoer, and G. Bland, NOAA’s operational end game for the Coyote Unmanned Aircraft System
  10. Brittany Dahl, A. Aksoy, J. P. Dunion, and H. Christophersen, Impact of Global Hawk Observing Strategies on Vortex-Scale Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in an OSSE Framework
  11. Javier Delgado, R. Atlas and S. Gopalakrishnan, Overview of Running a Regional Basin Scale Nature Run for Hurricane OSSEs
  12. George R. Halliwell Jr., M. F. Mehari, V. H. Kourafalou, R. Atlas, H. S. Kang, M. Le Henaff, and Y. S. Androulidakis, OSSE Evaluation of Rapid-Response Ocean Profile Surveys Prior to Hurricanes Edouard and Gonzalo
  13. Mark Leidner, B. Annane, R. N. Hoffman, and R. Atlas, Creating Vector Winds from Simulated CYGNSS Ocean Surface Wind Speed Retrievals Using Variational Analysis
  14. Zhenglong Li, J. Li, P. Wang, A. Lim, T. J. Schmit, J. Li, F. W. Nagle, R. Atlas, S. A. Boukabara, T. Pagano, W. J. Blackwell, and J. Pereira, Quick Regional OSSEs on Cubesat Based IR/MW Sounders on Local Severe Storm Forecasts
  15. Frank MarksPioneering the Use of Doppler Radar in Tropical Cyclones
  16. Frank Marks, Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Distributions
  17. Shirley Murillo, Chris Landesea, R2O via The Joint Hurricane Testbed
  18. David S. Nolan, and B. W. Klotz, Further Studies of Observational Undersampling of the Surface Wind and Pressure Fields in the Hurricane Inner-Core
  19. Christopher S. Ruf, R. Atlas, P. Chang, M. P. Clarizia, J. L. Garrison, S. Gleason, S. J. Katzberg, Z. Jelenak, J. T. Johnson, S. J. Majumdar, A. O’Brien, D. J. Posselt, D. provost, A. Ridley, R. Rose, F. Said, J. Scherrer, S. Soisuvarn, and V. Zavorotny, The NASA CYGNSS Satellite Constellation for Tropical Cyclone Observations
  20. Kelly Ryan, L. Bucci, J. Delgado, R. Atlas, C. W. Landsea, and S. Murillo, Improving NOAA G-IV Synoptic Surveillance Targeting for Tropical Cyclones by Evaluating Aircraft Reconnaissance Observations in an OSSE Framework
  21. Kathyrn Sellwood, H. Christophersen, A. Aksoy, B. Dahl, and J. Dunion, Impact of Assimilating Surface Wind Fields from the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) on Analyses and Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones
  22. Fred Toepfer, E. Rappaport, F. D. Marks Jr., V. Tallapragada, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, and A. Mehra, The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project: Advancements Made in Recent Operational Implementations
  23. John R. Walker, G. Wick, P. G. Black, J. P. Dunion, L. Cucurull, A. C. Kren, H. Wang, J. A. Sippel, M. B. Sporer, R. F. Morales Jr., and J. May, NOAA UAS Program’s Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) Project: A Case Study for the End-to-End Utilization of High- and Low-altitude Unmanned Aircraft Systems
  24. Xuejin Zhang, G. J. Alaka Jr., B. Thomas, D. Sheinin, Z. Zhang, R. St. Fleur, S. Gopalakrishnan, and I. Ginis, Development on the Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Basin-scale HWRF System: Targeting Research-to-Operation Transition
  25. Jun A. Zhang, F. D. Marks Jr. and X. Zhang, Improving Physical Parameterizations of the Operational Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast (HWRF) Model Using Aircraft Observations

Posters:

  1. Ghassan J. Alaka Jr., X. Zhang, Gopalakrishnan, and F. D. Marks Jr., Investigation of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Basin-Scale HWRF Ensemble System
  2. Bachir Annane, M. Leidner, B. D. McNoldy, R. N. Hoffman, and R. Atlas, Assimilation of CYGNSS Ocean Surface Winds in HWRF
  3. Sean Casey, R. Atlas, R. N. Hoffman, L. Cucurull, J. S. Woollen, I. Moradi, N. Shahroudi, S. A. Boukabara, K. Ide, R. Li, N. Prive, and F. Yang, Creation of a Control Dataset and Forecast System for Global OSSEs
  4. Ross N. Hoffman, A. Boukabara, V. K. Kumar, K. Garrett, S. Casey, and R. Atlas, A Non-Parametric Definition of Summary NWP Forecast Assessment Metrics
  5. Leon Nguyen, R. F. Rogers, and P. Reasor, Thermodynamic and Kinematic Influences on Precipitation Symmetry in Sheared Tropical Cyclones: Bertha and Cristobal (2014)
  6. Robert Rogers, and J. Zawislak, Precipitation Structure Upshear and Its Role in Tropical Cyclone Intensification
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HRD observation team monthly meeting – 19 January 2017

The purpose of the observation team meetings is to bring together the people who use observations in their research on a regular basis to discuss issues they’re having, provide updates on observations they’re analyzing or collecting, and any other information that may be of interest to the broader group.  These meetings are also an excellent opportunity to integrate all of the many uses of observations in HRD’s capacity to improve the understanding and prediction of tropical cyclones.

Agenda for January 2017:

  1. Update on 2017 HFP (Paul Reasor)
  2. Coyote, IR/BT comparison, West Pacific updates (Joe Cione)
  3. DWL/dropsonde comparisons (Lisa Bucci)
  4. HIRAD observations for initialization of the HWRF vortex (Kathryn Sellwood)

The presentation from the meeting is available on the anonymous ftp site: ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/blog/meetings/2017/Observations/HRD_ObsMeet_20170119.pptx.

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HRD scientists participate in HFIP Annual Review, NHC, Miami, FL – 11-12 January 2017

The HFIP program is coordinated through 3 strategic planning teams (Model Development, Data Assimilation/Ensemble, and Post Processing and Verification Development) and 3 tiger teams (High Resolution Physics, Ensemble Product, and Ocean Model Impact). The HFIP strategic planning teams develop our multi-year strategy for improving hurricane forecast guidance, while the tiger teams are responsible for overseeing the development of specific new capabilities for the hurricane forecast guidance system. The goal of the Annual Review is to assess the past year’s accomplishments and to develop an integrated plan for next year that includes involvement across NOAA and from the community outside NOAA that leads to progress toward the overall HFIP goals. This meeting will provide updates from the various teams and discuss the NOAA strategy to address the hurricane problem under the Next Generation Global Prediction System developments. The agenda can be found here.

HRD scientists Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, Frank Marks, and Xuejin Zhang provided invited presentations available here.

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HRD researchers provide overview of NOAA hurricane research at Indian Meteorological Society TROPMET 2016, Bhubaneswar, India – 18-20 December 2016

HRD researchers Drs. Frank Marks and Sundaraman Gopalakrishnan attended TROPMET 2016 Climate Change and Coastal Vulnerability organized by the Indian Meteorological Society (IMS) held at Siksha ‘O’ Anusandhan University, Bhubaneswar, Odisha to present an overview of NOAA’s hurricane research under the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP).

Copies of the slides from Drs. Marks’s and Gopalakrishnan’s presentations are available on the anonymous ftp site at ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/blog/seminars/2017/TROPMET-2016.zip.

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HRD & AOML researchers at American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA – 12-16 December 2016

AOML & HRD researchers presented 4 presentations and 2 posters at the 2016 AGU Fall Meeting.

Presentations:

  1. Robert Atlas, Application of Observing System Simulation Experiments to determining requirements for space-based missions
  2. Hua Chen, S. Gopalakrishnan, and J. A. Zhang, The Role of Shallow Convection and Deep convection in the Intensity Changes of Hurricanes
  3. Evan A. Kalina, J. Cione, G. Bryan, D. Lenschow, and C. Fairall, Power spectra and eddy dissipation rate measured by the Coyote Unmanned Aircraft System in Hurricane Edouard (2014)
  4. Jun A. Zhang, L. Bucci, K. Ryan, D. Emmitt, C. O’Handley, R. Atlas, and F. D. Marks, The Boundary Layer of Tropical Storm Erika (2015) Observed by Airborne Doppler Wind Lidar

 

Posters:

  1. Bachir Annane, B. McNoldy, S. M. Leidner, R. Hoffman, R. Atlas, and S. Majumdar, Impact of CYGNSS Data on Tropical Cyclone Analyses and Forecasts in a Regional OSSE Framework
  2. Kelly Ryan, L. Bucci, J. Delgado, R. Atlas, S. Murillo, and P. Dodge, OSSE Evaluation of Aircraft Reconnaissance Observations and their Impact on Hurricane Analyses and Forecasts

Copies of the 4 presentations and 2 posters are available online at ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/blog/seminars/2017/AGU-2016.zip.

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HRD Director Frank Marks participates in the Pauline Morrow Austin Centenary Celebration, MIT, Cambridge, MA, 1 December 2016

31410146736_ab8e03f8b5_oHRD Director Frank Marks gave an invited presentation at the Pauline (Polly) Austin Centenary Celebration, along with other former students of Mrs. Austin (as she was known to her students): Prof. Howie Bluestein, Prof. Robert Houze, Dr. Marilyn Wolfson, and Robert Copeland. Modern meteorology would not be what it is today without the contributions from Mrs. Austin (MIT PhD ’42) during her greater than 30-year stint as the Director of MIT’s Weather and Radar Research Project. MIT recognized her influence on the field of weather radar with this centennial celebration.

The slides from Dr. Marks’ presentation are available on the anonymous ftp site: ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/blog/seminars/2017/Marks_Austin_20161201_2.pptx.

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35th anniversary of the publication first documenting the eyewall cycle in intense tropical cyclones

In February, 1982, The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences published a ground-breaking study by Hugh Willoughby, Jean Clos, and Mohammed Shoreibah on what became to be known as the eyewall replacement cycle.  Using data obtained from NOAA P3 flights into very intense Hurricanes Anita, David and Allen, they found that a common feature of intense tropical cyclones was a second ring of convection around the primary eyewall and that this second ring also had a wind-speed maximum.  This second ring contracts while starving the inner ring of moisture and energy, so the second ring eventually replaces the first one as the eyewall, and the process can repeat.  They also found that the appearance of the second ring marks the end of a period of intensification, enabling improved intensity forecasts.

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This historic paper can be found at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0469%281982%29039%3C0395%3ACEWSWM%3E2.0.CO%3B2.

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Paper on Hurricane Patricia, the most intense hurricane ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere, released online in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

In October 2015, off the west coast of Mexico, Hurricane Patricia became the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the western hemisphere, intensifying faster than any other storm on record. A unique set of observations were collected in Patricia. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Office of Naval Research (ONR) aircraft flew into and above Patricia from its birth to landfall in Mexico, and on-the ground measurements were obtained during Patricia’s landfall. This paper summarizes the life of Patricia and the observations gathered.Screen Shot 2017-02-14 at 9.51.21 AM.png

Important Conclusions: (two – three)

  • NOAA and ONR aircraft flew into and above Patricia during its entire lifetime, providing unprecedented views of Patricia’s wind, temperature, and moisture from the ocean surface to above the top of the storm. Storm chasers in the path of Patricia’s landfall also collected surface pressure measurements.
  • These observations showed that Hurricane Patricia was a historic storm that broke many records:

Record

Value

Valid region

Fastest 10-s sustained surface wind speed measured by aircraft 94 m s-1 (182 kt; 210 mph) Global
Fastest 10-s flight-level wind speed measured by aircraft 99 m s-1 (192 kt; 221 mph) (tied with Supertyphoon Megi 2010) Global
Lowest minimum pressure measured by aircraft 879 mb (25.96 in) Western hemisphere
Warmest 700-hPa temperature measured by aircraft 32.2° C (90° F) Western hemisphere
Fastest best-track1 maximum sustained wind speed 95 m s-1 (185 kt; 213 mph) Global
Lowest best-track minimum pressure 872 hPa (25.75 in) Western hemisphere
Most rapid best-track intensification rate 97 hPa (2.86 in), 54 m s-1 (105 kt; 120 mph) in 24 h

(97 hPa in 24 h ties Hurricane Wilma 2005)

Global
Most rapid over-water weakening rate 54 hPa (1.59 in), 26 m s-1 (50 kt; 57.5 mph) in 5 h Western hemisphere
Strongest updraft measured by dropsonde2 27.4 m s-1 (53 kt; 61 mph) Global
Highest Advanced Dvorak Technique T-number3 T8.4 (94 m s-1;182 kt; 210 mph) Global
  • The data will be used to study what caused this record-breaking storm, and will help to improve forecasts of these systems.

1 The best track is the National Hurricane Center’s best estimate of the track and intensity of a hurricane after all observations are analyzed after the hurricane season ends.

2 A dropsonde is an instrument released from aircraft that measures temperature, pressure, humidity, and wind velocity as it falls to the surface.

3 The Advanced Dvorak Technique is a way to estimate the intensity of hurricanes from satellite data.

You can read the paper at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0039.1 .

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Article on concentric eyewalls in Hurricane Gonzalo published in Monthly Weather Review

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You can see the paper at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0175.1.

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