HRD Director, Frank Marks presents at NOAA’s 2018 Hurricane Season Awareness Webinar Series, 8 May 2018

The webinar was the first in a series of five webinars presented by NOAA’s Southeast and Caribbean Regional Collaboration Team (SECART) in advance of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season by NOAA specialists from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), the National Weather Service Forecast Offices (WFOs) as they provide …

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of May 2018

May’s science meeting consisted of three presentations: Jonathan Zawislak - The Relationship Between Observed Thermodynamic and Precipitation Properties During TC Intensity Change Paul Reasor - Vortex Alignment Processes in Vertically-Sheared Tropical Storms John Kaplan - Statistical Rapid Intensification Model Development: Recent Results and Efforts to Include Storm Structure All the presentations are available on the …

Paper on how small-scale changes in winds in hurricanes impact hurricane forecasts published in Weather and Forecasting

Summary: Forecasters and researchers use the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model to forecast where a hurricane will go, how strong and large it will be, and where the strongest winds will be. Wind in hurricanes are different over very short distances like 100 m, or the length of a football field, what is …

Paper on updrafts in hurricanes and how they relate to intensity changes published in Monthly Weather Review

Summary:  NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have a Doppler radar that measures wind through the entire hurricane.  We analyzed these radar data collected in many hurricanes since 2004.  Previous studies found that the location of the fastest upward moving air (what we call updrafts) may tell us how strong the storm will be a few hours …

Tenth Anniversary of Very Severe Tropical Cyclone Nargis

  On May 2, 2008 Very Severe Cyclone Nargis made landfall in Burma (Myanmar).  The cyclone struck the delta of the Irrawaddy River  with JTWC-estimated winds of 135 mph (117 kt, 60 m/s), sending a storm surge some 40 km inland and causing nearly 140,000 deaths.  By some calculations this makes Nargis the seventh deadliest cyclone in the North Indian …

15th anniversary of publication of seminal work on wind profiles in the tropical cyclone eyewall from dropwindsondes

Starting in 1996, NOAA phased out use of the obsolete Omega DropWindsondes (ODW) in favor of the Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) Dropwindsondes.  In addition to being more accurate due to the superior navigation system, this next-generation sonde was also more moisture tolerant.  ODWs would fail in they were launched in areas of heavy rain, but …

Paper on the best way to input very large numbers of observations into weather models published in Monthly Weather Review

Summary: Almost all weather forecasts for times longer than a few hours in the future are made using complicated computer apps working together on the largest computers. This is known as numerical weather prediction, or NWP for short. One of the most important NWP apps takes all kinds of data and mixes them together to …

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of April 2018

April’s science meeting consisted of five presentations: Andrew Kren - Impact of Global Hawk dropsonde data assimilated in the NCEP GFS model during SHOUT: Hurricanes Matthew and Nicole in 2016 Hui Christophersen - Impact of Global Hawk Dropsondes on Tropical Cyclone Analyses and Forecasts Sim Aberson -  1-km HEDAS analysis of Hurricane Patricia just after peak …

HRD Seminar – Dr. Jeff Kepert, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia – 23 April 2018

Dr. Kepert presented a seminar titled “Bias correction of tropical cyclone size and structure in the ECMWF global ensemble prediction system". ABSTRACT: Global EPS systems provide very valuable warning of severe weather risk, including tropical cyclones. One limitation arises because the spatial resolution of the EPS is necessarily too coarse to capture the fine details …