Modeling Michael: Using NOAA’s HFV3 to predict rapid intensification of Hurricane Michael

Reposted from https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/news/modeling-michael/ In a recently published study, AOML hurricane researchers used multiple computer model forecasts to gain a better understanding of how Hurricane Michael rapidly intensified to 162 mph before making landfall in the panhandle of Florida. Hurricane Michael is an interesting  case as it intensified despite strong upper-level wind shear, which usually weakens … Continue reading Modeling Michael: Using NOAA’s HFV3 to predict rapid intensification of Hurricane Michael

Paper on how Hurricane Michael (2018) intensified rapidly in the Gulf of Mexico released online in Monthly Weather Review

Weather forecasters use computer models to make predictions. These forecasts of the future depend on knowing what is happening now, what we call initial conditions. However, we can't measure the weather at every location on earth all the time, so we don't know exactly what these initial conditions are. Therefore, we run forecast models many … Continue reading Paper on how Hurricane Michael (2018) intensified rapidly in the Gulf of Mexico released online in Monthly Weather Review

Paper on how tropical cyclones can intensify in high shear released online in Monthly Weather Review

When the wind within about 150 miles of the center of a tropical cyclone (what we call the near environment) is very different at the bottom and the top of the storm (what we call wind shear), the storm usually weakens, especially if the storm is already weak. However, sometimes this doesn't happen, and the … Continue reading Paper on how tropical cyclones can intensify in high shear released online in Monthly Weather Review

Paper evaluating different schemes to predict convection in hurricanes released online in Weather and Forecasting

Forecasters and researchers use the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model to forecast where a hurricane will go, how strong it will be, how large it will be, and where the strongest winds are. Hurricanes are made up of thunderstorms (what we call convection), but individual thunderstorms are too small for the models we … Continue reading Paper evaluating different schemes to predict convection in hurricanes released online in Weather and Forecasting