Paper on the impact of ocean surface waves in intensity forecasts published in The Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans

Ocean surface waves affect the exchange of momentum and energy between the ocean and the atmosphere.  However, the impact on tropical cyclone intensity and structure in fully coupled numerical models has not been well-understood. This study used a regional atmosphere-ocean-wave coupled model to study the wave impacts.  Simulations of 21 real tropical cyclones were conducted. … Continue reading Paper on the impact of ocean surface waves in intensity forecasts published in The Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans

Investigating vertical wind shear influences on tropical cyclone intensity change

Scientists at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute of Marine & Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) examine the challenges of accurately predicting when a tropical cyclone will begin a quick and sudden increase in intensity (called rapid intensification or RI) in a new study published in Monthly Weather Review. The paper analyzes a group (ensemble) of computer model … Continue reading Investigating vertical wind shear influences on tropical cyclone intensity change

Review of how aircraft data are ingested into forecast models for tropical cyclones published in the Annals of the New York Academy of Science

This book chapter reviews how data are ingested into computer models and summarizes recent advances in how data relevant to tropical cyclones are used. Figure.  The impact of ingesting hurricane hunter data on predictions of storm intensity from NOAA’s state-of-the-art hurricane model, the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast Model.  In this figure, the impact of … Continue reading Review of how aircraft data are ingested into forecast models for tropical cyclones published in the Annals of the New York Academy of Science

Study on how weak, disorganized tropical cyclones become upright allowing for intensification published in the Journal of Geophysical Research

This study shows how weak, disorganized tropical cyclones that have different center locations with height (misalignment) can develop a vertically aligned structure. The ability to predict whether and when a tropical cyclone will become aligned is important for intensity change forecasts, as storms can intensify quickly after achieving it. This study will help improve forecasts … Continue reading Study on how weak, disorganized tropical cyclones become upright allowing for intensification published in the Journal of Geophysical Research

Study relating the structure of the area in a tropical cyclone closest to the surface and intensity released online in Monthly Weather Review

The study analyzes Doppler radar profile analyses to advance our understanding of how and why tropical cyclones intensify or weaken in relation to the shape of the vortex (whether the wind field is narrow or broad) and boundary-layer structure.  Example of a mean composite of only the radial wind velocity from airborne Doppler wind profile … Continue reading Study relating the structure of the area in a tropical cyclone closest to the surface and intensity released online in Monthly Weather Review

Paper describing the forecast techniques available to National Hurricane Center specialists published in Weather and Forecasting

This manuscript describes  the development of a set of simpler models (referred to as the National Hurricane Center guidance suite) that are currently utilized by the National Hurricane Center both for the forecasting of tropical cyclone track, intensity, and structure and for assessing the skill of other more sophisticated numerical models.  A description of the … Continue reading Paper describing the forecast techniques available to National Hurricane Center specialists published in Weather and Forecasting

Study of how accurate forecast models are in the region close to the ocean surface published in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Poor modeling of hurricane boundary layer turbulence in computer models is a key obstacle to improving hurricane intensity forecasts. This study uses a recently developed modeling framework based on a large-eddy simulation, or LES, (where model grids are small enough to resolve turbulence) to evaluate the pros and cons of four different planetary boundary layer … Continue reading Study of how accurate forecast models are in the region close to the ocean surface published in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Study showing how to improve forecasts of rapid intensification released online in Monthly Weather Review

Accurately predicting when a tropical cyclone will begin a quick and sudden increase in intensity (rapid intensification or RI) is a significant challenge. In this study, we analyzed a group (or ensemble) of computer model forecasts of a real RI event to better understand it. To accurately forecast tropical cyclone intensity and when RI will … Continue reading Study showing how to improve forecasts of rapid intensification released online in Monthly Weather Review

Study of what controlled the track of Hurricane Dorian in 2019 released online in Monthly Weather Review

This study looked at a collection (ensemble) of 80 runs of a hurricane model for Hurricane Dorian to learn why some got the forecast right and others got it wrong.  The study shows how useful ensembles can be for understanding how hurricanes move, and also shows that it is critical to forecast what is happening … Continue reading Study of what controlled the track of Hurricane Dorian in 2019 released online in Monthly Weather Review

Study on tropical cyclone forecast improvements due to data from the new Aeolus satellite released online in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Summary: The Atmospheric Dynamics Mission - Aeolus was launched into space in August 2018, by the European Space Agency. It is the first satellite capable of observing wind velocity around the world from the surface to 30 km above. This study describes the impact of incorporating these wind observations into computer weather models on tropical cyclone … Continue reading Study on tropical cyclone forecast improvements due to data from the new Aeolus satellite released online in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society