Paper on the best way to input very large numbers of observations into weather models released online in Monthly Weather Review

Summary: Almost all weather forecasts for times longer than a few hours in the future are made using complicated computer apps working together on the largest computers. This is known as numerical weather prediction, or NWP for short. One of the most important NWP apps takes all kinds of data and mixes them together to …

Paper on how small-scale changes in winds in hurricanes impact hurricane forecasts released online in Weather and Forecasting

Summary: Forecasters and researchers use the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model to forecast where a hurricane will go, how strong and large it will be, and where the strongest winds will be. Wind in hurricanes are different over very short distances like 100 m, or the length of a football field, what is …

Paper on updrafts in hurricanes and how they relate to intensity changes released online in Monthly Weather Review

Summary:  NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have a Doppler radar that measures wind through the entire hurricane.  We analyzed these radar data collected in many hurricanes since 2004.  Previous studies found that the location of the fastest upward moving air (what we call updrafts) may tell us how strong the storm will be a few hours …

Paper on the difference between rapidly intensifying storms and those that don’t intensify as fast published in Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Summary: The main model that forecasters use to predict what a hurricane will do is the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model. Because we cannot measure what is currently happening in the hurricane exactly, we run the model many times at once with different measurements to get an idea of the different forecasts that …

Paper on a way to initialize idealized hurricane models published in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Computer models developed to forecast the weather need to know what is currently happening in the atmosphere and in the ocean, what we call “initial conditions,” each time the model starts. The process of making these initial conditions is known as “initialization.” This study is about a new initialization method for both the atmosphere and …