60th Anniversary of first “real time” computer hurricane forecast

On August 13, 1958, a team of University of Chicago scientists ran a computer forecast model on Tropical Storm Becky as the storm was on-going.  Although not used for the official subjective forecast, the computer runs were a "proof of concept" demonstrating that Numerical Weather Prediction was possible for tropical cyclones. The team, consisting of …

Paper on the impact of new satellite wind velocity data on hurricane forecasts published in Monthly Weather Review

Summary: The CYclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) was launched into space on December 15, 2016, to improve hurricane (tropical cyclone) forecasts by measuring wind speed on the ocean surface. Since the tropical cyclones mostly occur over oceans where other wind data are usually not available, the new observations can measure their wind speeds. This …

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of August 2018

August’s science meeting consisted of five presentations: Andrew Kren - HAMSR retrieval assimilation in the GSI system Josh Wadler (UM/RSMAS)- A Characterization of Turbulent Kinetic Energy and its Generation in Idealized Tropical Cyclone Simulations Gus Alaka - The Basin-Scale HWRF: 2018 HFIP Real-Time Demos Miguel Cortez – Summer 2018 Nerto update Stan Goldenberg - August …

Paper on the impact of Global Hawk dropsondes data on global model forecasts released online in Weather and Forecasting

Summary: The Global Hawk, a drone or unmanned aircraft system (UAS), has been used since 2010 to gather data to improve forecasts. The Global Hawk can release dropsondes that measure temperature, pressure, humidity, and wind up to four times every second, starting at an altitude of up to 60,000 feet until it falls to the …

Paper on calculating and using wind speed and direction from the new NASA CYclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) released online in the Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology

Summary:  The NASA CYclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) measures wind speed, but not direction, at the ocean surface. To test the impact of new observations before such a satellite system is launched, observations like those from the satellite are created from a weather model. This study uses these “simulated” observations to learn how to …

Paper on combining satellite data and data from the Global Hawk aircraft to improve forecasts published in Weather and Forecasting

Summary: Because satellites are observing the weather all the time, there are almost always satellite data available around hurricanes or tropical cyclones (TCs). On the other hand, Hurricane Hunter aircraft can only reach TCs when the storms are near land and when airplanes and crews are available. When Hurricane Hunter missions are planned, the regular …

HRD Debrief for missions into Tropical Storm Chris – 19 July 2018

HRD researchers discussed the results from the 4 P-3 missions into AL03 Tropical Storm Chris (8-9 July 2018). The agenda for the discussion was: Missions Overview (Jon Zawislak) Mission Summaries 20180708H1 TDR (Kelly Ryan) 20180708H2 TDR (Hui Christophersen) 20180709H1 TDR (Kelly Ryan) 20180709H2 TDR (Gus Alaka) Discussion Slides from the debrief are available at: ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/blog/meetings/2018/HFP/2018HFP_Chris_Debrief.pptx

HRD observation team monthly meeting – 19 July 2018

The purpose of the observation team meetings is to bring together the people who use observations in their research on a regular basis to discuss issues they’re having, provide updates on observations they’re analyzing or collecting, and any other information that may be of interest to the broader group.  These meetings are also an excellent …

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of July 2018

July’s science meeting consisted of four presentations: Erin Jones – Simulating Observations of Gravity Waves Radiating from Hurricanes Miguel Cortez - Summer 2018 Nerto Work Plan Sim Aberson – A comparison of track forecasts from NOAA’s GFS and ECMWF’s IFS for Hurricane Irma Jon Zawislak - 2018 NOAA/AOML/HRD Hurricane Field Program Intensity Forecast Experiment (IFEX) …