Study showing the impact of turbulence in computer forecasts of hurricanes released online in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Summary:  Turbulence is made up of random and continuously changing wind.  It is important in tropical cyclones because turbulence in the lowest 1-2 km of the atmosphere (the planetary boundary layer or PBL) and in clouds affects tropical cyclone intensity and structural change. Meteorologists use computer models to forecast the weather, including tropical cyclones.  These … Continue reading Study showing the impact of turbulence in computer forecasts of hurricanes released online in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Study on how to improve model forecasts of the region closest to the ocean surface released online in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Summary:  Turbulence is made up of random and continuously changing wind.  It is important in tropical cyclones (TCs) because turbulence in the lowest 1-2 km of the free atmosphere (the planetary boundary layer or PBL) affects TC intensity and structural change. Meteorologists use computer models to forecast the weather, including TCs. These models forecast the … Continue reading Study on how to improve model forecasts of the region closest to the ocean surface released online in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Study on the impact of the new CYGNSS satellites on hurricane forecasts released online in Monthly Weather Review

Part of the difficulty of forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity (where the TC is going and how strong it will be) stems from the lack of frequent, accurate observations over tropical oceans where TCs form and develop. While Hurricane Hunter aircraft can collect vital observations in and near TCs, those observations are limited … Continue reading Study on the impact of the new CYGNSS satellites on hurricane forecasts released online in Monthly Weather Review

Flights continue in Hurricane Ida

NOAA has so far completed five flights into and around Hurricane Ida as it crossed over the Cayman Islands and western Cuba toward its forecast landfall along the Louisiana coast. Two synoptic surveillance missions were conducted by the NOAA G-IV high-altitude aircraft to gather dropwindsonde and Doppler radar data around the hurricane to be ingested … Continue reading Flights continue in Hurricane Ida

NOAA Hurricane Hunters fly into and around Fred, Grace, and Henri, and gear up for the next system

NOAA Hurricane Hunters completed 6 missions into Tropical Storm Fred, and 11 and 7 missions in and around Hurricanes Grace and Henri, respectively. The first mission into Fred occurred before the system had a well-defined center and was not yet named a tropical depression. Subsequent missions sampled the dry air and wind shear around Fred … Continue reading NOAA Hurricane Hunters fly into and around Fred, Grace, and Henri, and gear up for the next system

Study shows for the first time how and where dry air in the tropical cyclone core can impact intensity. Paper released online in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

In the middle atmosphere in and around tropical cyclones, around 2 to 5 km above the surface, air is cooler and drier than near the ocean surface. It is well known that this cool, dry air can be brought down toward the surface by heavy rain in thunderstorms, where the air flows toward the tropical … Continue reading Study shows for the first time how and where dry air in the tropical cyclone core can impact intensity. Paper released online in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of July 2021

July's science meeting consisted of five presentations: Sophie Grimsley (Lapenta Intern): "Project Check-in: Hurricane Intensity Change and Boundary Layer Processes" Nick Mesa (Lapenta Intern): "Investigating Intensity Changes Related to Thermodynamic Processes Using Near-coincident Aircraft and Satellite Observations" Laura Ko: "A Consensus Machine Learning Model for Hurricane RI Probabilistic Predictions" Sim Aberson: "Including High-Resolution AMVs in … Continue reading HRD Monthly Science Meeting of July 2021

Storymap: Improvements in Forecasting Weather, Floods, and Hurricanes: Overview Report on Supplemental Program FY18

The storymap includes work on the Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS), a set of moving, high-resolution nests around tropical cyclones in the global weather model, and the AOML Hurricane Model Viewer. View there storymap at https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/17d9393d307449a3a46fa3aa6dd5e258. For more information, contact aoml.communications@noaa.gov. Credits: The Supplemental Program Team is managed by the NOAA Line Offices of: … Continue reading Storymap: Improvements in Forecasting Weather, Floods, and Hurricanes: Overview Report on Supplemental Program FY18