Read the latest issue at http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/keynotes/PDF-Files/Sept-Oct2018.pdf
Category: Modeling and Prediction
Improvements to the NOAA regional hurricane modeling system – HWRF
Paper on the tropical cyclone diurnal cycle as seen in a forecast model released online in Monthly Weather Review
Summary: As tropical cyclones (TCs) move across the oceans, they begin to expand each day around sunset, with clouds reaching hundreds of miles from the center by the following afternoon. This daily “exhale” of the clouds is a feature of what we call the TC diurnal cycle. This study looks at the this cycle in … Continue reading Paper on the tropical cyclone diurnal cycle as seen in a forecast model released online in Monthly Weather Review
Paper on possible improvements to forecasts from additional radio-occultation satellite data published in Monthly Weather Review
Summary: The Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) are a set of satellites that were launched in 2006 and orbit the earth about 500 miles above ground. They use radio signals from Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites in a process called “radio occultation” to measure temperature and moisture with high accuracy every 100 … Continue reading Paper on possible improvements to forecasts from additional radio-occultation satellite data published in Monthly Weather Review
Paper on a new way to assess how well model forecasts are doing, showing improvements since 2015, published in Weather and Forecasting
Summary: Forecasters use computer models to help predict the weather. One important and simple way to see how good the computer forecasts are is to check how good predictions of where the high and low pressure systems are at a level about 5.5 km (3.5 miles) above the surface of the earth. But this doesn't … Continue reading Paper on a new way to assess how well model forecasts are doing, showing improvements since 2015, published in Weather and Forecasting
Paper on the impact of using Hurricane Hunter data in the HWRF model published in Monthly Weather Review
We studied how Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations can improve tropical cyclones forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model. Important Conclusions: Hurricane Hunter aircraft data generally improve HWRF forecasts. These improved forecasts are mainly in weak storms, since, without the data, HWRF often forecast storms that are too … Continue reading Paper on the impact of using Hurricane Hunter data in the HWRF model published in Monthly Weather Review
HRD Seminar – Dr. Yair Cohen, California Institute of Technology – 13 November 2018
Dr. Cohen presented a seminar titled “Gradient Non-Balance: A new approach for the outflow at the top of Tropical Cyclones: Theory, models and observations". ABSTRACT: The gradient non-balance is a flow-regime in which the gradient wind balance has no solutions or a given pressure map. This occurs only around a high pressure center, when the … Continue reading HRD Seminar – Dr. Yair Cohen, California Institute of Technology – 13 November 2018
Paper on how getting turbulence correct in forecast models can improve intensity forecasts in sheared storms released online in Monthly Weather Review
Summary: Though tropical cyclones (TCs) are usually hundreds of miles across, the strongest wind occurs in gusts that can be smaller than 100 yards across, or the size of a football field. We call features that cover such a small area the “turbulent scale.” Other features that are important in forecasting TCs can be as … Continue reading Paper on how getting turbulence correct in forecast models can improve intensity forecasts in sheared storms released online in Monthly Weather Review
HRD Debrief for missions into Hurricane Michael – 26 October 2018
HRD researchers discussed the results from the 6 P-3 and 3 G-IV missions into Hurricane Michael, AL14 (8-10 October 2018). The agenda for the discussion was: Agenda: Missions Overview (Jon Zawislak) Deployment Overview (Jon Zawislak) 20181008H1 (Kelly Ryan) 20181009H1 (Rob Rogers) 20181009N2 (Jason Dunion/ John Kaplan) 20181009H2/Coyote (Kelly Ryan) 20181010H1 (Rob Rogers/ Jon Zawislak) EMC … Continue reading HRD Debrief for missions into Hurricane Michael – 26 October 2018
HRD Debrief for missions into Tropical Storm Gordon and Hurricane Isaac – 17 October 2018
HRD researchers discussed the results from the 3 P-3 missions into Tropical Storm Gordon, AL07 (3-4 September 2018) . The agenda for the discussion was: Agenda: Missions Overview (Jon Zawislak) Deployment Overview (Jon Zawislak) 180903H1 (Robert Rogers) 180904H1 (Ghassan Alaka) 180904H2 (Hui Christophersen) HRD researchers also discussed the results from the 5 P-3 missions into … Continue reading HRD Debrief for missions into Tropical Storm Gordon and Hurricane Isaac – 17 October 2018
HRD Seminar – Dr. Jonathan Poterjoy, University of Maryland – 16 October 2018
Dr. Poterjoy presented a seminar titled “Regional Weather Prediction Using an 'Iterative' Local Particle Filter". ABSTRACT: Particle filters (PFs) are sequential Monte Carlo methods that can solve data assimilation problems characterized by non-Gaussian error distributions for prior model variables or measurements. From the perspective of a geoscientist, PFs contain several theoretical properties that make them … Continue reading HRD Seminar – Dr. Jonathan Poterjoy, University of Maryland – 16 October 2018
