Paper on the impact of ocean surface waves in intensity forecasts published in The Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans

Ocean surface waves affect the exchange of momentum and energy between the ocean and the atmosphere.  However, the impact on tropical cyclone intensity and structure in fully coupled numerical models has not been well-understood. This study used a regional atmosphere-ocean-wave coupled model to study the wave impacts.  Simulations of 21 real tropical cyclones were conducted. …

HRD scientists attend Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program Annual Meeting

Last week, researchers from HRD attended the 2022 Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) Annual Meeting in Miami, Florida.  Group photo of some of the participants of the 2022 HFIP Annual Meeting, both in person and virtually.  The primary objective of this meeting was to discuss key HFIP strategies including advances to NOAA's next-generation Hurricane Analysis and Forecast …

Recap of Hurricane Ian flights

In September, NOAA conducted 15 missions in and around Hurricane Ian before its historic landfall in Florida. Among these were 8 P-3 missions and 7 synoptic surveillance missions conducted by the G-IV. One hundred forty-three dropwindsondes were released along with 18 Airborne Expendable Bathythermographs to measure profiles in the atmosphere and the ocean underneath Ian. …

Investigating vertical wind shear influences on tropical cyclone intensity change

Scientists at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute of Marine & Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) examine the challenges of accurately predicting when a tropical cyclone will begin a quick and sudden increase in intensity (called rapid intensification or RI) in a new study published in Monthly Weather Review. The paper analyzes a group (ensemble) of computer model …

Study on how weak, disorganized tropical cyclones become upright allowing for intensification published in the Journal of Geophysical Research

This study shows how weak, disorganized tropical cyclones that have different center locations with height (misalignment) can develop a vertically aligned structure. The ability to predict whether and when a tropical cyclone will become aligned is important for intensity change forecasts, as storms can intensify quickly after achieving it. This study will help improve forecasts …

Meet HRD scientist Gus Alaka

Gus researches the relationship of the large-scale environment with hurricane formation and interactions between multiple storms. He also works closely with numerical hurricane models, including the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), which is #NOAA’s next-generation hurricane prediction system. He flies on Hurricane Hunter missions to collect critical data that improve hurricane forecasts.  One of Gus’ …

Paper describing the forecast techniques available to National Hurricane Center specialists published in Weather and Forecasting

This manuscript describes  the development of a set of simpler models (referred to as the National Hurricane Center guidance suite) that are currently utilized by the National Hurricane Center both for the forecasting of tropical cyclone track, intensity, and structure and for assessing the skill of other more sophisticated numerical models.  A description of the …

Making the Unpredictable Predictable in Hurricane Forecasts

The chaotic, swirling winds just above the ocean as a hurricane develops play a key role in how strong a storm might be when it reaches land. Helping forecasters better account for this seemingly unpredictable wind turbulence that drives a hurricane's intensity is what scientists with the Northern Gulf Institute and NOAA are doing. Their …

Study of how accurate forecast models are in the region close to the ocean surface published in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Poor modeling of hurricane boundary layer turbulence in computer models is a key obstacle to improving hurricane intensity forecasts. This study uses a recently developed modeling framework based on a large-eddy simulation, or LES, (where model grids are small enough to resolve turbulence) to evaluate the pros and cons of four different planetary boundary layer …

Study showing how to improve forecasts of rapid intensification released online in Monthly Weather Review

Accurately predicting when a tropical cyclone will begin a quick and sudden increase in intensity (rapid intensification or RI) is a significant challenge. In this study, we analyzed a group (or ensemble) of computer model forecasts of a real RI event to better understand it. To accurately forecast tropical cyclone intensity and when RI will …