Rob Rogers gave invited presentation at the opening ceremony for the Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center (AP-TCRC) – 29 November 2021

On 29 November, 2021, Rob Rogers gave an invited virtual talk entitled "Advances in the Understanding and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change from Airborne Observations" at a new international joint tropical cyclone research organization, named the Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center (AP-TCRC). The AP-TCRC is supported by the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee (the Committee) and … Continue reading Rob Rogers gave invited presentation at the opening ceremony for the Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center (AP-TCRC) – 29 November 2021

Paper describing a new forecast model that follows multiple tropical cyclones at the same time released online in The Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Forecast models that follow individual tropical cyclones (TCs), like NOAA’s Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model, have contributed to significant improvement of intensity forecasts for over a decade.  The original HWRF could only follow one TC, but recent advances allow individual multiple nests to follow more than one TC.  This is the first time … Continue reading Paper describing a new forecast model that follows multiple tropical cyclones at the same time released online in The Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Study on improving tropical cyclone forecasts by improving the way turbulence near the surface is modeled highlighted in EOS

Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Read the highlight at https://eos.org/editor-highlights/hurricane-forecast-improvement-with-better-turbulent-processes. Read more about this study at https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2021/09/30/study-on-improving-tropical-cyclone-forecasts-by-improving-the-way-turbulence-near-the-surface-is-modeled-published-in-the-journal-of-geophysical-research/. For more information, contact aoml.communications@noaa.gov.

Study on historical Saharan dust outbreaks from rainfall and sedimentary rocks released online in The Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

In June 2020, one of the largest Saharan dust outbreaks on record overspread the North Atlantic, eventually bringing dry, dusty air to much of the southeastern U.S.  This study used chemical analysis of rainfall from several U.S. stations to detect various forms of lead associated with Saharan dust before, during, and after this record-breaking event.  … Continue reading Study on historical Saharan dust outbreaks from rainfall and sedimentary rocks released online in The Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of October 2021

October's science meeting consisted of six presentations: Xiaomin Chen: A Framework for Simulating the Tropical-Cyclone Boundary Layer Using Large-Eddy Simulation Sim Aberson: Sally:  An Aborted Attempt to Form an Aligned Vortex? Kathryn Sellwood: Assimilation of Coyote Observations with HWRF GSI Jon Zawislak: Summary of NASA's CPEX-AW Field Campaign Lisa Bucci: Comparison of Aeolus Observations to NOAA Dropsondes Kyle Ahern: How were … Continue reading HRD Monthly Science Meeting of October 2021

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of August 2021

August's science meeting consisted of two presentations: Stanley Goldenberg - "NOAA’s August Update of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Methodology & Forecast"  Tomislava Vukicevic - "Sensitivity of microphysics parameterization to stochastically perturbed parameters" Copies of the two presentations are available on the anonymous ftp site at: ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/blog/meetings/2021/Science/HRD_SciMeet_20210812.zip

Hurricane Field Programs gears up to fly Sam, recaps missions so far this year

All three NOAA heavy aircraft are deploying to St. Croix today in preparation for missions into what is now Tropical Storm Sam. AOML/HRD plans to collaborate with the Office of Naval Research Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification (TCRI) field campaign to fly P-3 and G-IV aircraft missions into Hurricane Sam in the central North Atlantic. The … Continue reading Hurricane Field Programs gears up to fly Sam, recaps missions so far this year

Study on the best way to improve forecasts using a proposed satellite-based Doppler Wind Lidar published in Monthly Weather Review

This study investigates how to get the largest improvements to tropical cyclone forecasts from wind profiles obtained from a proposed new instrument, a Doppler Wind Lidar, on polar-orbiting satellites.  Wind profiles have the largest impact when the tropical cyclone’s structure was changing rapidly and when the measurements were taken close to the tropical cyclone center. … Continue reading Study on the best way to improve forecasts using a proposed satellite-based Doppler Wind Lidar published in Monthly Weather Review

Saildrone observations of Atlantic Hurricanes to Improve Intensity forecasts

Improving the accuracy and ultimate value of  NOAA's operational hurricane forecasts requires more complete real-time knowledge of atmospheric and oceanic conditions and more realistic representation of key physical processes in forecast models. To meet these needs, a research team from NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) and Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) deployed five saildrones … Continue reading Saildrone observations of Atlantic Hurricanes to Improve Intensity forecasts

Study on the impact of the new CYGNSS satellites on hurricane forecasts published in Monthly Weather Review

Part of the difficulty of forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity (where the TC is going and how strong it will be) stems from the lack of frequent, accurate observations over tropical oceans where TCs form and develop. While Hurricane Hunter aircraft can collect vital observations in and near TCs, those observations are limited … Continue reading Study on the impact of the new CYGNSS satellites on hurricane forecasts published in Monthly Weather Review