Summary: We look at why Hurricane Dorian was able to intensify in the Eastern Caribbean when many forecasts suggested that it would stay weak and perhaps die out. To help answer this question, we use a forecast model called the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS). Specifically, we use an ensemble, a group of forecasts … Continue reading Study on the rapid intensification of Hurricane Dorian near the Eastern Caribbean published in Atmosphere
AOML held a virtual awards ceremony on 18 December. Here is a list of award winners from HRD. Congratulations to everyone!
Dust layer associated with the Saharan Air Layer. Photo taken from the NOAA G-IV northeast of Barbados during a Saharan Air Layer Experiment mission into Hurricane Helene on Sep 16, 2006. Small cumulus clouds can be seen poking through the tops of the dust layer, which is seen as a milky white haze. Photo credit: … Continue reading Paper on the relationship between African dust and hurricane activity published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
You can read the study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020GL089883.
HIWeather is a World Meteorological Organisation research project, developing warning capabilities for weather-related hazards, to increase resilience worldwide. HIWeather participants form an international network of scientists, in a wide variety of disciplines, all concerned with aspects of the production and communication of weather-related warnings. The workshop is aimed at anyone interested in improving weather-related warnings, … Continue reading Rob Rogers participates in the 2020 HIWeather Workshop
Frank Marks, HRD director, presented a season-end summary of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project goals and their current status. You may get the slides on the anonymous ftp site at: ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/blog/meetings/2020/Science/HRD_SciMeet_20201112.pptx.
Summary: The energy for tropical cyclones comes mainly from the warm ocean below them. The warmer the water, the greater the energy, and the easier it is to transfer that energy (heat and moisture) into the air and into the tropical cyclone, allowing the thunderstorms that sustain the cyclone to develop. Cool water (below about … Continue reading Paper on the rapid intensification of Hurricane Michael released online in Monthly Weather Review
A new study published in Geophysical Research Letters looks at the relationship between how fast a tropical cyclone intensifies and the amount of ice in the clouds that make up the storm. Hurricane scientists found that tropical cyclones with greater amounts of cloud ice are likely to intensify faster than those with less cloud ice. Read more … Continue reading A New Study Connects Greater Amounts of Cloud Ice in Tropical Cyclones to Intensification
Summary: It is difficult to accurately forecast how strong a tropical cyclone will get, what we call intensity. The biggest problem is in forecasting when the intensity increases dramatically in a short period of time, or rapid intensification (RI). This study looked at the relationship between how fast a tropical cyclone intensifies and the amount … Continue reading Paper on the relationship between the amount of ice in clouds and rapid intensification of hurricanes published in Geophysical Research Letters