Paper on a new way to input observations into weather models released online in Monthly Weather Review

Summary:  Predicting the weather with 100% accuracy is an impossible task. Doing so would require full knowledge of the Earth system (the air, water, land, etc.) including the present state of the atmosphere (its wind, temperature, humidity, etc.). It would also require a complete understanding of everything that causes the weather. In reality, our understanding … Continue reading Paper on a new way to input observations into weather models released online in Monthly Weather Review

Paper on possible improvements to forecasts from additional radio-occultation satellite data published in Monthly Weather Review

Summary: The Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) are a set of satellites that were launched in 2006 and orbit the earth about 500 miles above ground. They use radio signals from Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites in a process called “radio occultation” to measure temperature and moisture with high accuracy every 100 … Continue reading Paper on possible improvements to forecasts from additional radio-occultation satellite data published in Monthly Weather Review

Paper on the impact of using Hurricane Hunter data in the HWRF model published in Monthly Weather Review

We studied how Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations can improve tropical cyclones forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model. Important Conclusions: Hurricane Hunter aircraft data generally improve HWRF forecasts. These improved forecasts are mainly in weak storms, since, without the data, HWRF often forecast storms that are too … Continue reading Paper on the impact of using Hurricane Hunter data in the HWRF model published in Monthly Weather Review

HRD Debrief for missions into Hurricane Michael – 26 October 2018

HRD researchers discussed the results from the 6 P-3 and 3 G-IV missions into Hurricane Michael, AL14 (8-10 October 2018). The agenda for the discussion was: Agenda: Missions Overview (Jon Zawislak) Deployment Overview (Jon Zawislak) 20181008H1 (Kelly Ryan) 20181009H1 (Rob Rogers) 20181009N2 (Jason Dunion/ John Kaplan) 20181009H2/Coyote (Kelly Ryan) 20181010H1 (Rob Rogers/ Jon Zawislak) EMC … Continue reading HRD Debrief for missions into Hurricane Michael – 26 October 2018

HRD Seminar – Dr. Karina Apodaca, CSU/CIRA and AOML/HRD – 24 October 2018

Dr. Apodaca presented a seminar titled “Advances in new data assimilation methodologies and observations for the benefit of NOAA operations". ABSTRACT: In an effort to advance the operational weather forecasting enterprise a vital objective is having the ability to accurately predict severe weather. Integrating new methodologies to enhance data assimilation systems and incorporating new and … Continue reading HRD Seminar – Dr. Karina Apodaca, CSU/CIRA and AOML/HRD – 24 October 2018

HRD Debrief for missions into Tropical Storm Gordon and Hurricane Isaac – 17 October 2018

HRD researchers discussed the results from the 3 P-3 missions into Tropical Storm Gordon, AL07 (3-4 September 2018) . The agenda for the discussion was: Agenda: Missions Overview (Jon Zawislak) Deployment Overview (Jon Zawislak) 180903H1 (Robert Rogers) 180904H1 (Ghassan Alaka) 180904H2 (Hui Christophersen) HRD researchers also discussed the results from the 5 P-3 missions into … Continue reading HRD Debrief for missions into Tropical Storm Gordon and Hurricane Isaac – 17 October 2018

HRD Seminar – Dr. Jonathan Poterjoy, University of Maryland – 16 October 2018

Dr. Poterjoy presented a seminar titled “Regional Weather Prediction Using an 'Iterative' Local Particle Filter". ABSTRACT: Particle filters (PFs) are sequential Monte Carlo methods that can solve data assimilation problems characterized by non-Gaussian error distributions for prior model variables or measurements. From the perspective of a geoscientist, PFs contain several theoretical properties that make them … Continue reading HRD Seminar – Dr. Jonathan Poterjoy, University of Maryland – 16 October 2018

Hurricane Field Program Update – Wednesday, October 10, 2018

The NOAA P-3 completed its last mission into Hurricane Michael this morning, passing through the storm four times. As in the previous three missions, we provided critical measurements of the 3-D wind, precipitation, and thermodynamic (temperature and humidity) structure of the storm from our Doppler radar, dropsondes, and flight level measurements. The data was not … Continue reading Hurricane Field Program Update – Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Hurricane Field Program Update – Monday, October 8, 2018, 10 AM ET

Monday, October 8, 2018: NOAA42:  The NOAA/NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) has tasked the P-3 for operational missions into Hurricane Michael, currently located east of the Yucatan Peninsula. Take off from Lakeland, FL, will be at 4:00 PM EDT. Three HRD scientists will be on this mission. The flight track of the mission is shown below. … Continue reading Hurricane Field Program Update – Monday, October 8, 2018, 10 AM ET