Recap of Julia and Lisa flights

NOAA conducted two flights into Julia and five into Lisa during October of this year, all in the Caribbean Sea. The main purpose of all the missions was to gather Doppler Radar and dropwindsonde data for ingestion into NOAA's computer models to improve forecasts. Flight tracks of missions into Julia (left) and Lisa (right) during … Continue reading Recap of Julia and Lisa flights

HRD scientists attend Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program Annual Meeting

Last week, researchers from HRD attended the 2022 Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) Annual Meeting in Miami, Florida.  Group photo of some of the participants of the 2022 HFIP Annual Meeting, both in person and virtually.  The primary objective of this meeting was to discuss key HFIP strategies including advances to NOAA's next-generation Hurricane Analysis and Forecast … Continue reading HRD scientists attend Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program Annual Meeting

Recap of Hurricane Ian flights

In September, NOAA conducted 15 missions in and around Hurricane Ian before its historic landfall in Florida. Among these were 8 P-3 missions and 7 synoptic surveillance missions conducted by the G-IV. One hundred forty-three dropwindsondes were released along with 18 Airborne Expendable Bathythermographs to measure profiles in the atmosphere and the ocean underneath Ian. … Continue reading Recap of Hurricane Ian flights

Review of how aircraft data are ingested into forecast models for tropical cyclones published in the Annals of the New York Academy of Science

This book chapter reviews how data are ingested into computer models and summarizes recent advances in how data relevant to tropical cyclones are used. Figure.  The impact of ingesting hurricane hunter data on predictions of storm intensity from NOAA’s state-of-the-art hurricane model, the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast Model.  In this figure, the impact of … Continue reading Review of how aircraft data are ingested into forecast models for tropical cyclones published in the Annals of the New York Academy of Science

Paper describing the forecast techniques available to National Hurricane Center specialists published in Weather and Forecasting

This manuscript describes  the development of a set of simpler models (referred to as the National Hurricane Center guidance suite) that are currently utilized by the National Hurricane Center both for the forecasting of tropical cyclone track, intensity, and structure and for assessing the skill of other more sophisticated numerical models.  A description of the … Continue reading Paper describing the forecast techniques available to National Hurricane Center specialists published in Weather and Forecasting

Study showing how to improve forecasts of rapid intensification released online in Monthly Weather Review

Accurately predicting when a tropical cyclone will begin a quick and sudden increase in intensity (rapid intensification or RI) is a significant challenge. In this study, we analyzed a group (or ensemble) of computer model forecasts of a real RI event to better understand it. To accurately forecast tropical cyclone intensity and when RI will … Continue reading Study showing how to improve forecasts of rapid intensification released online in Monthly Weather Review

Review of aircraft missions into Hurricane Earl

NOAA conducted 20 aircraft missions into Hurricane Earl in late August and early September. The series of flights over 12 days was the longest series of flights into one system that NOAA has conducted. We recently reviewed these flights, and the slides from the review can be found here. Flight tracks of all the NOAA … Continue reading Review of aircraft missions into Hurricane Earl

Study of what controlled the track of Hurricane Dorian in 2019 released online in Monthly Weather Review

This study looked at a collection (ensemble) of 80 runs of a hurricane model for Hurricane Dorian to learn why some got the forecast right and others got it wrong.  The study shows how useful ensembles can be for understanding how hurricanes move, and also shows that it is critical to forecast what is happening … Continue reading Study of what controlled the track of Hurricane Dorian in 2019 released online in Monthly Weather Review

NOAA deploys new Altius drone into the eye of Hurricane Ian

Altius-600 uncrewed aircraft system being released from the NOAA WP-3D Orion Hurricane Hunter aircraft during a test flight in June 2022. Watch the video here. NOAA hurricane researchers have added a new tool to their toolbox. For the first time, an Area-I Altius-600 uncrewed aircraft system was deployed into a hurricane by scientists at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic … Continue reading NOAA deploys new Altius drone into the eye of Hurricane Ian

NOAA Researchers fly a series of missions into Hurricane Ian

Outer rainband of Hurricane Ian as seen from NOAA 43 "Miss Piggy" Scientists from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division and NOAA's National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service have flown a series of missions into Hurricane Ian from the time it was a tropical depression in the eastern Caribbean. On board both NOAA P3s (Kermit & … Continue reading NOAA Researchers fly a series of missions into Hurricane Ian