HRD scientists participate in the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2021

The American Geophysical Union is holding their annual Fall Meeting 13-17 December in New Orleans, and also online. Every year, the Fall Meeting unites >25,000 attendees from 100+ countries in the Earth and space sciences community to discuss findings, connect scientists from around the world, advance the profession and connect over passion for the impact … Continue reading HRD scientists participate in the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2021

Rob Rogers gave invited presentation at the opening ceremony for the Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center (AP-TCRC) – 29 November 2021

On 29 November, 2021, Rob Rogers gave an invited virtual talk entitled "Advances in the Understanding and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change from Airborne Observations" at a new international joint tropical cyclone research organization, named the Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center (AP-TCRC). The AP-TCRC is supported by the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee (the Committee) and … Continue reading Rob Rogers gave invited presentation at the opening ceremony for the Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center (AP-TCRC) – 29 November 2021

Frank Marks and Sim Aberson win awards for excellence and outstanding contributions to NOAA and the community

HRD Director Frank Marks received the Joanne Simpson Tropical Meteorology Research Award from the American Meteorological Society. The award is granted to researchers who make outstanding contributions to advancing the understanding of the physics and dynamics of the tropical atmosphere. Frank was recognized for his outstanding contributions to the understanding and prediction of tropical cyclones … Continue reading Frank Marks and Sim Aberson win awards for excellence and outstanding contributions to NOAA and the community

Paper on NOAA’s new hurricane forecast models released online in Weather and Forecasting

We tested two developmental versions of a new forecast model for tropical cyclones being developed by NOAA. Track forecasts from the AOML version were better than NOAA’s current operational models, and intensity forecasts showed promise as well. In particular, the models correctly predicted rapid intensification (when a tropical cyclone’s maximum sustained wind speed increases by … Continue reading Paper on NOAA’s new hurricane forecast models released online in Weather and Forecasting

Study on how Hurricane Dorian organized before rapidly intensifying released online in Monthly Weather Review

This study showed that a weak, disorganized tropical system in an environment that is not primed for intensification can develop a new center where conditions are more favorable for intensification.  The ability to observe the center of circulation, the tilt of the vortex with height, the depth of the vortex, the wind shear, and locations … Continue reading Study on how Hurricane Dorian organized before rapidly intensifying released online in Monthly Weather Review

Paper describing a new forecast model that follows multiple tropical cyclones at the same time released online in The Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Forecast models that follow individual tropical cyclones (TCs), like NOAA’s Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model, have contributed to significant improvement of intensity forecasts for over a decade.  The original HWRF could only follow one TC, but recent advances allow individual multiple nests to follow more than one TC.  This is the first time … Continue reading Paper describing a new forecast model that follows multiple tropical cyclones at the same time released online in The Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Study on improving tropical cyclone forecasts by improving the way turbulence near the surface is modeled highlighted in EOS

Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Read the highlight at https://eos.org/editor-highlights/hurricane-forecast-improvement-with-better-turbulent-processes. Read more about this study at https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2021/09/30/study-on-improving-tropical-cyclone-forecasts-by-improving-the-way-turbulence-near-the-surface-is-modeled-published-in-the-journal-of-geophysical-research/. For more information, contact aoml.communications@noaa.gov.

Study on how the direction of wind shear impacts tropical cyclone intensity released online in Monthly Weather Review

This is the first study to examine how the direction of the wind shear changes how much heat and moisture is available to the TC and how it influences TC intensity change.  These results provide TC forecasters another tool to predict intensity change. ■ Summary:  The amount of wind shear, the change of winds with … Continue reading Study on how the direction of wind shear impacts tropical cyclone intensity released online in Monthly Weather Review