Jason Dunion, Frank Marks, and Rob Rogers participate in the WMO-sponsored Tropical Cyclone-Probabilistic Forecast Products Workshop

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) hosted a three-day virtual workshop on June 15, 17, and 18 to chart a path forward for evaluating, developing, and improving tropical cyclone probabilistic forecast products (TC-PFP). Co-led by Jason Dunion (NOAA/AOML/HRD and UM/CIMAS), Munehiko Yamaguchi (Japanese Meteorological Agency), and Hui Yu (Shanghai Typhoon Institute) as part of the WMO Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research, the TC-PFP workshop developed in response to a set of recommendations agreed upon at the most recent WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC). The goal of the workshop is to survey existing products produced by forecast centers around the world that incorporate probability and uncertainty, with the aim of improving their value to users like emergency managers, the private sector, and the public. Speakers provided an overview of current and planned probabilistic forecast products, discussion of how to communicate these products, and different resources to produce them. The workshop identified best practices for probabilistic forecasting of TC formation and position. Future efforts of this project will focus on TC intensity and structure and TC-related rainfall and storm surge.

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