AOML scientists assess the potential for Tropical Storm Eta to intensify

Tasked by the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) and the National Hurricane Center (NHC), NOAA’s P-3 and G-IV aircraft have conducted reconnaissance and surveillance for Tropical Storm Eta. Missions are scheduled to proceed through the weekend.

AOML scientists remotely supporting NOAA’s G-IV flights continue to provide high-quality data to operational weather models. NHC credits the shift in track guidance to the incorporation of these measurements into their forecast.

While Tropical Storm Eta’s track forecast has become clearer, its predicted intensity remains uncertain. NOAA’s P-3 aircraft is scheduled to complete multiple passes through Eta’s circulation center during each mission through Sunday to optimize the performance of NOAA’s Hurricane Research and Forecast (HWRF) modeling system, a tropical-cyclone model operated by EMC. 

GOES-East satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Eta on November 7.

Tail Doppler Radar onboard the P-3 collects high-density wind observations and has consistently been shown to improve the intensity forecasts produced by numerical models. The combination of Tail Doppler Radar and other instrumentation provides models with the most recent information about the atmospheric conditions affecting Tropical Storm Eta. These data will be vital for Eta’s forecast as it moves northward over Cuba.

>> Scientist K. Ryan
>> Edits by: R. Kravetz

For details about reconnaissance aircraft missions, please see NOAA’s official Plan of the Day.


For the latest information about tropical cyclones and other weather systems, please visit the NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center.

For information on numerical prediction of tropical cyclones, please visit NOAA/NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center.

To access updates on the Intensity Forecasting EXperiment (IFEX) and other activities via Facebook, Twitter, or RSS feed, check out the NOAA/AOML/HRD page.

To directly access updates on IFEX HFP Operations via our WordPress blog on the web, check the site: https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/category/ifex-hurricane-field-program/

DISCLAIMER: The above discussion is intended to provide a brief summary of recent and future HRD Hurricane Field Program Operations. Any use of this material beyond its original intent is prohibited without permission of the HRD Director, Frank Marks (Frank.Marks@noaa.gov). Media inquiries should be directed to AOML Communications (aoml.communications@noaa.gov), Monica Allen (301-734-1123) or Monica.Allen@noaa.gov.

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