Paper on how small-scale changes in winds in hurricanes impact hurricane forecasts published in Weather and Forecasting

Summary: Forecasters and researchers use the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model to forecast where a hurricane will go, how strong and large it will be, and where the strongest winds will be. Wind in hurricanes are different over very short distances like 100 m, or the length of a football field, what is called the small scale. We have observations of how wind changes on this small scale from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft. So, HWRF was run a number of times changing how the small-scale wind is forecast to be closest to these observations. Then, the study documents how these changes improve forecasts of the entire storm.

 

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Important Conclusions:

1. Small-scale wind features are important for forecasts of how strong the hurricane will get and how quickly, and of its size.

2. These findings will help those creating the forecast models to make future intensity forecasts better.

 

You can read the article at https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0097.1.