HRD Seminar – Dr. Andrew Hazelton, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ – 29 May 2018

Dr. Hazelton presented a seminar titled “High-Resolution fvGFS Forecasts of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: Structural Analysis and Evaluation of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season”. ABSTRACT: As numerical models reach finer horizontal and vertical resolution, evaluation of storm structure is critical to model assessment and improvement.  Structural metrics based on horizontal wind are examined in high-resolution TC forecasts …

AOML and HRD researchers at 33rd AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Ponte Vedra, FL – 15-20 April 2018

Thirty-one AOML and HRD scientists participated in the recent 33rd AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology in Ponte Vedra, FL, as authors or co-authors on 65 presentations and 19 posters. Roughly 783 presentations (507 oral presentations in 67 sessions and 276 posters in 2 session) were submitted to the conference. Of the 567 TC-related presentations …

HRD Director, Frank Marks presents at NOAA’s 2018 Hurricane Season Awareness Webinar Series, 8 May 2018

The webinar was the first in a series of five webinars presented by NOAA’s Southeast and Caribbean Regional Collaboration Team (SECART) in advance of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season by NOAA specialists from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), the National Weather Service Forecast Offices (WFOs) as they provide …

HRD Monthly Science Meeting of May 2018

May’s science meeting consisted of three presentations: Jonathan Zawislak - The Relationship Between Observed Thermodynamic and Precipitation Properties During TC Intensity Change Paul Reasor - Vortex Alignment Processes in Vertically-Sheared Tropical Storms John Kaplan - Statistical Rapid Intensification Model Development: Recent Results and Efforts to Include Storm Structure All the presentations are available on the …

Paper on how small-scale changes in winds in hurricanes impact hurricane forecasts published in Weather and Forecasting

Summary: Forecasters and researchers use the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model to forecast where a hurricane will go, how strong and large it will be, and where the strongest winds will be. Wind in hurricanes are different over very short distances like 100 m, or the length of a football field, what is …

Paper on updrafts in hurricanes and how they relate to intensity changes published in Monthly Weather Review

Summary:  NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have a Doppler radar that measures wind through the entire hurricane.  We analyzed these radar data collected in many hurricanes since 2004.  Previous studies found that the location of the fastest upward moving air (what we call updrafts) may tell us how strong the storm will be a few hours …

Tenth Anniversary of Very Severe Tropical Cyclone Nargis

  On May 2, 2008 Very Severe Cyclone Nargis made landfall in Burma (Myanmar).  The cyclone struck the delta of the Irrawaddy River  with JTWC-estimated winds of 135 mph (117 kt, 60 m/s), sending a storm surge some 40 km inland and causing nearly 140,000 deaths.  By some calculations this makes Nargis the seventh deadliest cyclone in the North Indian …