15th Anniversary of Goldenberg, et al. paper

Cover of July 20, 2001 Science journal.
Cover of July 20, 2001 Science journal.

In the July 20, 2001, issue of Science magazine, HRD scientists Stan Goldenberg and Chris Landsea, AOML oceanographer Alberto M. Mestas-Nuñez, and Colorado State professor Bill Gray published the article “The Recent Increase in Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Causes and Implications”.  The cover article examined the upsurge in Atlantic hurricane activity starting in 1995 and related it to changes in sea surface temperatures and vertical wind shear over the ocean basin.

Figure 4 from Goldenberg et al. showing changes in Atlantic hurricane activity due to phases of the AMO.
Figure 4 from Goldenberg et al. showing changes in Atlantic hurricane activity due to phases of the AMO.

The authors described how Atlantic hurricane activity was affected by modulations in sea temperatures, such as the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).  The paper concludes, “the present high level of hurricane activity is likely to persist for an additional ∼10 to 40 years.”