HRD seminar – Dr. Julian Heming, UK Met Office, UK – 17 March 2016

Dr. Heming presented a seminar on the “Tropical Cyclone Predictions from the Met Office Global Model: a Brief History and Recent Developments”.


This presentation will give an overview of tropical cyclone prediction from the Met Office Global Model. It will cover the history of tropical cyclone initialization in the model including the major impact of the scheme introduced in 1994 to its eventual withdrawal in 2012. The impact on tropical cyclone predictions of a major model upgrade in 2014 will be examined. Finally, details will be presented of a new form of tropical cyclone initialization introduced in 2015. Results from these changes to the model and tropical cyclone initialization will be illustrated with cases of landfalling tropical cyclones such as Typhoons Haiyan, Fitow, Nari, Bopha, Bolaven, Cyclone Pam and Hurricane Leslie.

A recording of the presentation is available on the anonymous ftp site:

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