Summary: The paper describes new models to forecast the probability of when tropical cyclones may strengthen rapidly during the next 48 h when the National Hurricane Center issues watches and warnings to the public. The models are expected to be run during the latter portion of the 2015 Hurricane season.
- The new models are more skillful in predicting when a tropical cyclone may intensify rapidly than existing models.
- The new models are far more accurate for systems located in the Eastern North Pacific region than those in the Atlantic.
- Conditions in the Atlantic overall appear to be less favorable for rapid strengthening than in the East Pacific, and are therefore less predictable.
- The new models show the potential to provide more accurate forecasts than provided by existing models.
The paper can be accessed at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0032.1.