HRD seminar – Sudararaman Gopalakrishnan, AOML/HRD – 19 June 2014

Gopal presented a seminar on “The Basin Scale HWRF: Looking beyond the 10-m wind speed for improved storm predictions”

Abstract

A high-resolution version of the HWRF, originally developed at the Hurricane Research Division of the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory was successfully transitioned by the team at National Center for Environmental Predictions to NOAA operations in 2012. Operating at a resolution of about 3 km, the model showed improved track, rainfall and structure predictions skills.  Hurricane Sandy illustrated the importance and an urgent need for improved track and size predictions for landfall applications. The current paradigm of storm specific forecasts also needs to be revised. As an evolutionary effort, we have developed a basin scale HWRF system that can operate with multiple moving nests spanning at resolution down to 3 km that may be utilized for improving storm-storm interactions and post landfall predictions of tropical cyclones. Supported by NOAAs Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), this version of the HWRF was run for the 2013 hurricane season. We are starting to see some improved performances in tracks and structure predictions with the basin scale HWRF. An overview of this system along with the advantages of transitioning to such a system into operations will be provided. We will illustrate the importance of environmental interactions during RI of Earl.  We will also show some results from Hurricanes Sandy and emphasize the need for looking beyond the 10-m wind for post landfall predictions. We expect the basin scale HWRF to transition to operations between years 2014-2015. 

A video recording of the presentation is available on the anonymous ftp site:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/blog/seminars/2014/Gopal_HRD_seminar_20140619.mp4

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