30th Anniversary of first seasonal hurricane forecast by Colorado State University


 Bill Gray in 2006

     In April of 1984, Bill Gray and a team of meteorologists from Colorado State University issued their first seasonal hurricane forecast.  This was the first attempt to prognosticate the number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin for the coming year using statistical correlations with various parameters, such as rainfall in Africa’s Sahel region, the presence of El Niño, and the phase of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation.  The annual effort has continued since then, although in recent years lack of funding has threatened to end it.  Numerous modifications have been made in the methodology but this the longest running tropical cyclone seasonal forecast effort among its various rivals that are now issued by other institutions and governments.