15th Anniversary of Goldenberg, et al. paper

Cover of July 20, 2001 Science journal.

Cover of July 20, 2001 Science journal.

In the July 20, 2001, issue of Science magazine, HRD scientists Stan Goldenberg and Chris Landsea, AOML oceanographer Alberto M. Mestas-Nuñez, and Colorado State professor Bill Gray published the article “The Recent Increase in Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Causes and Implications”.  The cover article examined the upsurge in Atlantic hurricane activity starting in 1995 and related it to changes in sea surface temperatures and vertical wind shear over the ocean basin.

Figure 4 from Goldenberg et al. showing changes in Atlantic hurricane activity due to phases of the AMO.

Figure 4 from Goldenberg et al. showing changes in Atlantic hurricane activity due to phases of the AMO.

The authors described how Atlantic hurricane activity was affected by modulations in sea temperatures, such as the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).  The paper concludes, “the present high level of hurricane activity is likely to persist for an additional ∼10 to 40 years.”

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Jason Dunion talks with patch.com about the Saharan Air Layer

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You can read the article at http://patch.com/us/across-america/saharan-dust-cloud-descends-texas-gulf-coast.

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HRD Monthly Science Meeting of July 2016

July’s science meeting consisted of 5 presentations:

  1. Joaquin Trinanes (AOML/PhOD) – “CoastWatch and PhOD satellite and ocean products in support of HRD 2016 hurricane season activities”
  2. Erin Dougherty (SUNY- Albany, HRD visitor) – “Hurricane Bonnie (1998): Maintaining Intensity during High Vertical Wind Shear and an Eyewall Replacement Cycle”
  3. Evan Forde (AOML/CNSD) – “An Update on the Historical Relationship of Saharan Air Layers With Atlantic Basin TC Activity (1987-2008)”
  4. Sandy Delgado (CIMAS/NHC) – “Results of the Reanalysis of 1956-1960 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons”
  5. Krista Dotterer (Hollings Scholar – NHC) – “Accuracy of Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) Intensity Estimates in Hurricanes”

All the presentations are available on the anonymous ftp site at:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/blog/meetings/2016/science/HRD_SciMeet_20160714.zip

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Paper on new observations of rapid intensification during Hurricane Karl released online in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

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Read the paper at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0026.1.

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Jason Dunion talks about the Saharan Air Layer with the Weather Channel

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Read the article at https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/saharan-air-layer-african-dust-atlantic-basin.

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Neal Dorst quoted in USA Today article

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Neal Dorst is quoted in this USA Today article on the recent small number of hurricane landfalls in the United States.

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10th Anniversary of Tropical Storm Bilis

TRMM satellite pass showing heavy rainfall south of Bilis' center (NASA)

TRMM satellite pass showing heavy rainfall south of Bilis’ center (NASA)

On July 13, 2006, Severe Tropical Storm Bilis made landfall in northern Taiwan.  Although the maximum sustained winds were only 65 mph (105 km/hr), it brought heavy rains to the island and to northern Luzon.  It went on to make landfall on mainland China the next day and inundated parts of Fujian province.  The total damage caused by Bilis was approximately US$4.4 billion, killed nearly 860 people, and left over 400,000 people homeless.

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20th Anniversary of Hurricane Bertha

Hurricane Bertha near peak intensity on July 9th, 1996

Hurricane Bertha near peak intensity on July 9th, 1996

On July 12, 1996, Hurricane Bertha roared ashore at Wrightsville Beach, NC, smashing piers and boats.  The storm had already left a trail of destruction across the northern Caribbean islands and subsequently brought heavy rainfall along the Eastern Seaboard.

Bertha grew out of an African Easterly Wave that became a tropical depression on July 5th in the mid-Atlantic.  It maintained a steady WNW course as it slowly strengthened.  It became a hurricane on the evening of July 7th as it approached Guadeloupe.  The center of the minimal hurricane passed over Antigua and Saint Martin the next morning, causing moderate damage.  But the hurricane rapidly intensified into a Category-3 hurricane as it passed over the Virgin Islands and north of Puerto Rico.  Although Puerto Rico missed the maximum winds, it did receive torrential rains from Bertha, up to 7″ in the eastern rain forests.

Track of NOAA43 into Hurricane Bertha on July 10th, 1996

Track of NOAA43 into Hurricane Bertha on July 10th, 1996

Bertha’s winds peaked at 115 mph (190 km/hr) as it passed close to the Turks and Caicos Islands.  Shortly after this maximum, NOAA43 carried out a reconnaissance mission into the hurricane.  The track of the storm shifted to the NW over the northern Bahamas and seemed aimed at Charleston, SC as it weakened back to a Category-1 hurricane.  But on the night of July 11th, the track swerved northward and the maximum sustained winds intensified to 105 mph (170 km/hr) at landfall.  Bertha rapidly declined in strength as it moved along the eastern coast of the United States, but managed to dump copious amounts of rain along the way, more than 9″ in North Carolina and over 7″ in areas of New York and New England.

Bertha caused about US$335 million in damage, most of that in the Carolinas.  It also cost 12 lives, many in Florida from rough seas.  Less than two months later the same area of North Carolina was struck by Hurricane Fran.

HRD research paper referencing Hurricane Bertha:

Powell, M. D., and S. K. Rinard, 1997:  Marine forecasting at the 1996 Centennial Olympic Games.  Wea. Forecast., 13, 764-782.

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HRD scientist provides NOAA hurricane modeling research overview to the India Meteorological Society, New Delhi, India – 5 July 2016

Dr. Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan presented a seminar to the Delhi Chapter of the India Meteorological Society entitled “Advances and Challenges in Tropical Cyclone Track, Structure and Intensity Predictions”. Dr. Gopalakrishnan was in New Delhi visiting the India Meteorological Department, India Ministry of Earth Science, and the Indo-US Science and Technology Forum to further HRD and NOAA collaborations in India. The presentation is available on the anonymous ftp site:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/blog/seminars/2016/Gopal_India_Visit.pptx.zip

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HRD Scientists brief NOAA Aircraft Operations Center personnel on IFEX 2016, MacDill AFB, FL – 7 July 2016

Intensity Forecast Experiment (IFEX) Program Director Robert Rogers, Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL) researcher Lisa Bucci, and HRD Director Frank Marks briefed the Aircraft Operations Center (AOC) personnel on IFEX plans for 2016, this year’s plan for the DWL, and Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project progress, respectively. The three presentations are available in a .zip archive on the anonymous ftp site at:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/blog/seminars/2016/AOC_IFEX2016_20160707.zip

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