HRD Monthly Science Meeting of December 2016

December’s science meeting consisted of 6 presentations:

  1. Paul Reasor (HRD):  “Real-time, storm-scale diagnostics derived from Tail Doppler Radar”,
  2. Jun Zhang (HRD):  “Recent improvement in physical parameterization of horizontal turbulent mixing in HWRF “,
  3. Rob Rogers (HRD):  “Re-writing the Tropical Record Books:  The Extraordinary Intensification of Hurricane Patricia (2015)”,
  4. Hui Christophersen (HRD):  ‘Composite Analysis of Global Hawk Dropsonde Impact for Edouard (2014)’
  5. Eric Blake (NHC):  “Hurricane Forecasting Challenges During 2016”
  6. John Cangialosi (NHC):  “2016 Track/Intensity/Genesis Forecast Verification”

All the presentations are available on the anonymous ftp site at:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/blog/meetings/2017/Science/HRD_SciMeet_20161208.zip

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HRD Seminar – Dr. Sim Aberson, AOML/HRD – 5 December 2016

Dr. Aberson presented a seminar titled  “Dropsondes in Hurricanes (1949 to the present)”

Abstract:

The history of the use of dropsondes in hurricanes will be presented with special emphasis on the achievements since the development and implementation of the NCAR GPS dropwindsonde 20 years ago.  The GPS dropwindsonde revolutionized the science of hurricanes.  Though originally developed as part of a program to improve numerical forecasts, it spurred development of targeting and data assimilation techniques to optimize data gathering.  Most importantly, the instrument provided the first detailed look at the kinematics and dynamics of tropical cyclones, especially in the eyewalls near the most intense systems.

A recording of the presentation is available on the anonymous ftp site:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/blog/seminars/2017/Aberson_HRD_Seminar_20161205.mp4

screen-shot-2016-12-07-at-11-19-46-am

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2016 Hurricane Season ends

Brad Klotz celebrates the end of missions into Hurricane Matthew

Brad Klotz celebrates the end of missions into Hurricane Matthew

Today marks the last day of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, and it was a busy one for us.  AOML’s Hurricane Research Division (HRD) participated in 57 missions into six different tropical cyclones: Colin, Earl, Javier (East Pacific), Hermine, Karl, and Matthew.  From early June to the start of October, HRD personnel either flew on-board research flights or processed data on the ground in real time from these missions.  Here is a break down of the sorties by aircraft platform:

  • P-3                  32 missions
  • G-IV                17 missions
  • Global Hawk   8 missions

NOAA launched over 1000 dropsondes in and around storms this season, a massive deployment executed through the Intensity Forecasting EXperiment (IFEX), conducted in collaboration with NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center and National Hurricane Center, and the Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) campaign in cooperation with NASA and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory.

Some highlights from this season’s efforts:

  • Testing and development of new observing technologies including Doppler Wind Lidar data gathered in Earl and Javier.
  • Prolonged genesis and intensification of Hermine was observed.  Hermine was the first land-falling hurricane in Florida since Wilma (2005).
  • A  unique data set was collected during the extratropical transition of Karl.  This was the first storm flown from cyclogenesis to extratropical transition.
  • Hurricane Matthew was the first category-5 hurricane in Atlantic basin since Felix (2007).

The various data sets gathered this year will be studied extensively to look for possible relationships between rainfall patterns and storm intensity changes.  The dropsondes and Doppler radar data collected in conjunction will help improve the new generation of computer simulations that model the inner workings of the hurricane vortex.  This will help improve the forecasting of intensity change, a central goal of HRD.

 

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Through the Eyewall – My Experience with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters, Nicholas Komisarjevsky, Science Communications Intern, NOAA AOML

screen-shot-2016-11-20-at-5-56-17-pmhttp://www.aoml.noaa.gov/keynotes/keynotes_1116_hurrhunterflight.html

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HRD Seminar – Kelly Ryan, CIMAS and AOML/HRD, Tucson, AZ – 28 October 2016

Kelly Ryan presented a seminar titled  “OSSE Evaluation of the Impact of Aircraft Observations on Hurricane Analyses and Forecasts” at the University of Arizona.

A copy of the presentation is available on the anonymous ftp site: ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/blog/seminars/2017/Ryan_UA_seminar_Oct2016.pdf

screen-shot-2016-11-20-at-5-29-40-pm

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HRD observation team monthly meeting – 17 November 2016

The purpose of the observation team meetings is to bring together the people who use observations in their research on a regular basis to discuss issues they’re having, provide updates on observations they’re analyzing or collecting, and any other information that may be of interest to the broader group.  These meetings are also an excellent opportunity to integrate all of the many uses of observations in HRD’s capacity to improve the understanding and prediction of tropical cyclones.

Agenda for November 2016:

Updates & Outlook
1) SFMR reprocessing (Brad Klotz)
2) Coyote outlook (Joe Cione)
3) DWL update (Lisa Bucci/Jun Zhang)

Research & Development
4) Dropsonde analysis tool development (Jon Zawislak)
5) Dropsonde impact study (Hui Christophersen)

The presentation from the meeting is available on the anonymous ftp site: ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/blog/meetings/2017/Observations/HRD_ObsMeet_20161117.zip

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Paper on a simple way to simulate winds closest to the surface in tropical cyclones released online in Boundary-Layer Meteorology

Screen Shot 2016-11-16 at 12.51.04 PM.png

You can read the article here

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HRD Monthly Science Meeting of November 2016

November’s science meeting consisted of 7 presentations:

  1. Shun-Nan Wu (RSMAS), “The signal of future TC intensification in the CloudSat measurements”
  2. Jon Zawislak (FIU/CIMAS/HRD), “The Relationship Between Precipitation and Environmental Forcing during Tropical Cyclone Formation”
  3. Leon Nguyen (HRD), “Thermodynamic and kinematic influences on precipitation symmetry in sheared tropical cyclones: Bertha and Cristobal (2014)”
  4. Brad Klotz (CIMAS/HRD): “SFMR reprocessing update”
  5. Sim Aberson (HRD), “On HWRF Spindown”
  6. Jun Zhang (CIMAS/HRD): “Impact of parameterized boundary layer structure on tropical cyclone rapid intensification forecast in HWRF”
  7. Ghassa Alaka (CIMAS/HRD): “2016 Basin-Scale HWRF, Part I: Matthew Track Forecasts”

All the presentations are available on the anonymous ftp site at:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/blog/meetings/2016/science/HRD_SciMeet_20161110.zip

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Paper on a new way to run forecast models with multiple hurricanes at the same time released online in Weather and Forecasting

  • Summary:

HWRF is NOAA’s primary model for tropical cyclone (tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes) forecast. The distance between places where forecasts are made in the model (the grid resolution) must be small to make accurate forecasts. However, the amount of computer power needed increases as these points get closer together. To save computer power, HWRF runs with a higher resolution only around the tropical cyclone than outside using so-called nesting. The current HWRF can only forecast one tropical cyclone at a time. This paper presents a way to forecast up to four tropical cyclones at a time using movable multi-level nesting (MMLN). The nests

can follow each tropical cyclone. This paper documents the design of the MMLN for the first time. The model is run for four seasons.

  • Important Conclusions:

The version of HWRF wth MMLN improved forecasts of where the storm was going.

The version of HWRF with MMLN can better forecast places outside the tropical cyclone (the environment) that controls where the storm will go and how strong it will be than the regular version.

The version of HWRF with MMLN may be used during upcoming hurricane seasons to improve forecasts.Screen Shot 2016-11-10 at 4.08.06 PM.png

You can find the paper online at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0087.1.

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Paper on new observations of rapid intensification during Hurricane Karl published in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Screen Shot 2016-11-04 at 6.27.17 PM.png

Read the paper at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0026.1.

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