HRD Monthly Science Meeting of May 2012
The main presentation on the 2012 IFEX Hurricane Field Program (HFP) plan, plus presentations on the 11 HFP modules from May’s Science meeting are available on the anonymous ftp site as a zip archive at:
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/marks/month_sci_meet/HRD_SciMeet_20120510.zip
HRD and AOML researchers at the 66th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC – 5–8 March 2012
Copies of the 16 presentations HRD researchers presented (or were co-authors) at the 66th IHC are available online from the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology’s website:
Overview of WG/TCR Efforts and Promising Results - Frank Marks (AOML/HRD) and Ronald Ferek (ONR)
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) - Fred Toepfer, Robert Gall (NWS/OST), Frank Marks (AOML/HRD), and Ed Rappaport (NWS/NHC)
2011 Update on The Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) - Jiann-Gwo Jiing, C. Landsea, and S. Murillo (JHT)
Improvements in Statistical Tropical Cyclone Forecast Models: A Year 1 Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update - Mark DeMaria (NOAA/NESDIS) with John Kaplan (AOML/HRD)
Improvements to the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index - John Kaplan (AOML/HRD)
Improvements in the Probabilistic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Resulting from Inclusion of Satellite Passive Microwave Observations - Christopher Rozoff (University of Wisconsin) with John Kaplan (AOML/HRD)
Enhancement of SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index Using the 37 GHz Ring Pattern - Haiyan Jiang (Florida International University) with John Kaplan (AOML/HRD)
Development of a Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Genesis Prediction Scheme - Jason Dunion (UM/CIMAS & AOML/HRD)
Validation of HWRF Forecasts with Satellite Observations - Tomislava Vukicevic (AOML/HRD)
Assimilation of Non-NOAA and Non-AF GPS Dropwindsonde Data into NOAA Numerical Models - Kathryn Sellwood (UM/CIMAS & AOML/HRD)
Improved SFMR Surface Wind Measurements in Intense Rain Conditions: A JHT Project - Brad Klotz (UM/CIMAS & AOML/HRD)
Understanding the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Karl From Observations and Models: Using NASA’s Airborne and Satellite Observations to Evaluate the Operational Hurricane Forecast Model HWRF - Svetla Hristova-Veleva (California Institute of Technology) with Tomislava Vukicevic (AOML/HRD)
2012 Plans for NOAA’s Intensity Forecast Experiment (IFEX) - Shirley Murillo (AOML/HRD)
Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) Experiment: Scientific Basis, New Analysis Tools and Some First Results - Michael Montgomery (Naval Postgraduate School)
FY2012 Implementation of Advanced High-Resolution Triple-Nested HWRF at NCEP/EMC - Vijay Tallapragada (NCEP/EMC) with Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan and Xuejin Zhang (AOML/HRD)
Comparison and Evaluation of Two ABL Mixing Schemes in HWRF - Jian-Wen Bao (NOAA/ESRL) with Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan (AOML/HRD)
Diurnal Pulsing of Tropical Cyclones: An Overlooked Yet Fundamental TC Process? - Jason Dunion (UM/CIMAS & AOML/HRD)
HRD/NHC CHART seminar – Dr. Mike Brennan NHC – 14 February 2012
NHC Senior Hurricane Specialist Dr. Mike Brennan gave a seminar on “The Impact of Supplemental Dropwindsonde and Rawinsonde/Observations on Model Track Forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011)”
Abstract
As Hurricane Irene approached the east coast of the United States the NOAA G-IV jet flew 10 synoptic surveillance missions from 23-27 August, along with one surveillance mission flown by an Air Force Reserve C-130 aircraft on 23 August. Additionally, supplemental 0600 and 1800 UTC rawinsondes were launched beginning at 1800 UTC 22 August from upper-air stations in the southeastern United States, and expanded to include all of the continental United States from the Rocky Mountains eastward beginning at 0600 UTC 25 August.
Data denial studies were performed for the supplemental observations using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation scheme. The NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) and Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) models were then run using the analyses that excluded the supplemental observations. Differences between the operational GFS and HWRF forecasts and the “data-denial” forecasts were used to quantify the impact of the supplemental observations on the track forecast of Irene in both models.
Preliminary results suggest a small but overall positive improvement due to both the dropwindsonde and supplementary radiosonde observations on the track of Irene in the GFS through 5 days. The dropwindsonde data showed the largest improvement in 2 to 3 day forecasts, while the supplemental rawinsondes showed the largest improvement at days 4 and 5. The supplemental data resulted in little change to the track of Irene in the HWRF model through day 3 and some degradation to the track at days 4 and 5.
The recorded presentation is available via ftp here.
Shirley Murillo interviewed by WUSF (University of South Florida) Radio
http://www.wusf.usf.edu/news/2011/10/24/noaa_aims_to_improve_storm_intensity_forecasts
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Hurricane Field Program Update – Saturday, September 10, 2011 06:41 PM EDT
OPERATIONS
All NOAA P-3 missions into Tropical Storm Nate and Tropical Storm Maria have been canceled.
CONFERENCE CALL
The conference call that was scheduled for Sunday, Sept 11, 2011 at 1300 UTC has also been canceled.
Tropical Storm Nate surface wind analysis
H*Wind surface wind analysis are available for Tropical Storm Nate http://1.usa.gov/r9QvMZ
G-IV SALEX flight mission #2 – Hurricane Katia
The G-IV is currently flying around Hurricane Katia again today (Sept. 7th). No arc clouds were seen on yesterdays mission. This morning’s 85 Ghz TMI shows the dry air wrapping around the storm so perhaps there will be some arc cloud formation. The purpose of this mission is to sample the environment around Hurricane Katia and target arc clouds - Saharan Air Layer Experiment (SALEX) (p.35)
Below is the flight track.
G-IV track
G-IV SALEX flight mission – Hurricane Katia
The G-IV is currently flying around Hurricane Katia today (Sept. 6th). The purpose of this mission is to sample the environment around Hurricane Katia and target arc clouds - Saharan Air Layer Experiment (SALEX) (p.35)
Below is the flight track.
G-IV track
Tropical Storm Lee wind analysis
H*Wind surface wind analyses for Tropical Storm Lee are available at: http://1.usa.gov/rqwRe9
About Us
The Hurricane Research Division (HRD) is a part of the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) on Virginia Key, FL. AOML is a part of the Oceanic and Atmospherc Research (OAR) office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States Government’s Department of Commerce (DOC).
HRD began fifty years ago as the National Hurricane Research Project and has, under various names, continued to conduct scientific research into hurricanes and related tropical weather phenomena, using theoretical studies, computer models, and an annual field program employing NOAA hurricane research aircraft. This research has resulted in a deeper, scientific understanding and in numerous practical applications which have improved forecasts. HRD employs meteorolgists, computer scientists, and other professionals, who collaborate with other governmental and academic scientists worldwide in this ongoing effort to advanced scientific knowledge and increase public safety.
