Stan Goldenberg comments to Sun-Sentinel on whether Era of hurricane intensity is slowing down
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/broward/fl-intensity-era-20120228,0,7995498.story
HRD researchers at 92nd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, New Orleans, LA – 23-26 January 2012
Recordings of 6 of the 10 presentations HRD researchers presented (or were co-authors) at the 92nd AMS Annual Meeting are available online from the AMS website:
Advancing Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Using Aircraft Observations: A Historical Perspective - Frank Marks
Hurricane Measurements and Modeling for Wind Turbine Siting and Design - Mark Powell
Wind Vs. Surge: Hurricane Ike (poster) – Mark Powell
Observations and Modeling of Land-Falling Tropical Cyclones (panel presentations) - Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State University; Melinda S. Peng, NRL; Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS; Peter G. Black, SAIC/NRL; Frank D. Marks, NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division and Mark D. Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD
Development and Calibration of a Rigorous Fraternal Twin Ocean OSSE System in the Gulf of Mexico - George Halliwell
Experimental Hurricane Forecasts During HFIP in 2011 - Robert Gall, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and F. Marks, E. Rappaport, and F. Toepfer
New and Improved Reconnaissance Data Collection with the NOAA G-IV - Richard Henning (AOC), P. Flaherty, J. Parrish, A. B. Damiano, J. Williams, I. Sears, G. Defeo, N. Morgan, N. Hann, J. McFadden, A. Goldstein, and J. F. Gamache
Observations During GRIP From HIRAD: Images of C-Band Brightness Temperatures and Ocean Surface Wind Speed and Rain Rate - Timothy L. Miller, MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and M. W. James, J. B. Roberts, L. Jones, C. S. Ruf, E. W. Uhlhorn, S. Biswas, C. May, P. G. Black, and C. D. Buckley
An OSSE on Mesoscale Model Assimilation of Simulated HIRAD-Observed Hurricane Surface Winds - Cerese Marie Albers, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. L. Miller, E. Uhlhorn, and D. T. N. Krishnamurti
HRD Monthly Modeling Meeting for February 2012
The two presentations from February’s modeling meeting are available on the anonymous ftp site as a zip archive at:
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/marks/Mon_Model_Meet/20120216.zip
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- Bao and Bernardet presentation
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- Hogsett And Zelinsky presentation
HRD Director presents invited talk at IOTCCC-2012, New Delhi, India, 14-17 February 2012
Dr. Frank Marks made an invited talk on “Advancing Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Using AircraftObservations” at the 2nd WMO International Workshop on Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change (IOTCCC-2012). The presentation is available in Powerpoint format at:
http://metnet.imd.gov.in/iotccc/iotccc_presentation/IOTCCC-139.pptx
HRD/NHC CHART Seminar – Dr. Altug Aksoy CIMAS/HRD – 15 February 2012
Dr. Altug Aksoy (CIMAS/HRD) presented a seminar on “Assimilation of high-resolution hurricane inner-core data with the HWRF Hurricane Ensemble Data Assimilation System (HEDAS)” which is available on the NHC website.
Aksoy presentation
HRD/NHC CHART seminar – Dr. Mike Brennan NHC – 14 February 2012
NHC Senior Hurricane Specialist Dr. Mike Brennan gave a seminar on “The Impact of Supplemental Dropwindsonde and Rawinsonde/Observations on Model Track Forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011)”
Abstract
As Hurricane Irene approached the east coast of the United States the NOAA G-IV jet flew 10 synoptic surveillance missions from 23-27 August, along with one surveillance mission flown by an Air Force Reserve C-130 aircraft on 23 August. Additionally, supplemental 0600 and 1800 UTC rawinsondes were launched beginning at 1800 UTC 22 August from upper-air stations in the southeastern United States, and expanded to include all of the continental United States from the Rocky Mountains eastward beginning at 0600 UTC 25 August.
Data denial studies were performed for the supplemental observations using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation scheme. The NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) and Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) models were then run using the analyses that excluded the supplemental observations. Differences between the operational GFS and HWRF forecasts and the “data-denial” forecasts were used to quantify the impact of the supplemental observations on the track forecast of Irene in both models.
Preliminary results suggest a small but overall positive improvement due to both the dropwindsonde and supplementary radiosonde observations on the track of Irene in the GFS through 5 days. The dropwindsonde data showed the largest improvement in 2 to 3 day forecasts, while the supplemental rawinsondes showed the largest improvement at days 4 and 5. The supplemental data resulted in little change to the track of Irene in the HWRF model through day 3 and some degradation to the track at days 4 and 5.
The recorded presentation is available via ftp here.
HRD Monthly Science Meeting of February 2012
The four presentations from February’s Science Meeting are available on the anonymous ftp site as a zip archive at:
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/marks/month_sci_meet/HRD_SciMeet_20120209.zip
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- Murillo presentation
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- CHART presentation
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- J. ZHang presentation
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- Haddad presentation
About Us
The Hurricane Research Division (HRD) is a part of the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) on Virginia Key, FL. AOML is a part of the Oceanic and Atmospherc Research (OAR) office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States Government’s Department of Commerce (DOC).
HRD began fifty years ago as the National Hurricane Research Project and has, under various names, continued to conduct scientific research into hurricanes and related tropical weather phenomena, using theoretical studies, computer models, and an annual field program employing NOAA hurricane research aircraft. This research has resulted in a deeper, scientific understanding and in numerous practical applications which have improved forecasts. HRD employs meteorolgists, computer scientists, and other professionals, who collaborate with other governmental and academic scientists worldwide in this ongoing effort to advanced scientific knowledge and increase public safety.
