Hurricane Field Program Update – Tuesday, September 30, 2014 11AM Eastern

OPERATIONS

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

G-IV: Is flying a GPS dropsonde evaluation mission in coordination with the NASA’s UAS Global Hawk. The jet took off around 10:15 AM Eastern for an 1 hr and 50 min flight from MacDill Air Force Base. They are flying box-like pattern over the Gulf of Mexico. The goal of this mission is to validate the mini Global Hawk dropsondes with the G-IV dropsondes. No HRD scientists are on this flight.

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For the latest information about tropical cyclones and other weather systems, please visit the NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center web site at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

To access updates on IFEX and other HRD activities via Facebook, Twitter, or RSS feed, check out the HRD home page at
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd

To directly access updates on IFEX HFP Operations via our WordPress blog on the web, check the site
https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/category/ifex-hurricane-field-program/

DISCLAIMER: The above discussion is intended to provide a brief summary of recent and future HRD Hurricane Field Program Operations. Any use of this material beyond its original intent is prohibited without permission of the HRD Director. Media inquiries should be directed to Erica Rule (305-361-4541) or Erica.Rule@noaa.gov, Evan Forde (305-361-4327) or Evan.Forde@noaa.gov, Monica Allen (301-734-1123) or Monica.Allen@noaa.gov.

Flying in coordination – NOAA’s G-IV jet and NASA’s Global Hawk

NOAA’s G-IV jet and NASA’s Global Hawk are currently flying a coordinated mission over the Gulf of Mexico. The purpose of this mission is to compare measurements from the GPS dropwindsondes that are launched from the Global Hawk against the dropwindsondes launched from the G-IV jet. This test allows us to check the accuracy of the instruments. Below is the proposed flight track for the jet. The Global Hawk will over over the G-IV doing the same flight pattern. The green dots denote the dropwindsonde locations. The red dots on the map represent the locations where weather balloons are launched twice a day.

140930n1_ftk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AOML seminar – George Halliwell – 16 September 2014

George presented a seminar on “OSSE Evaluation of Ocean Observing Strategies for Improving Coupled Hurricane Forecasts (a progress report)”.  A video recording of the presentation is available on the PhOD YouTube channel at:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VIqNlBSYo3I

Halliwell presentation

Halliwell presentation

 

Hurricane Field Program Update – Monday, September 29, 2014 4PM Eastern

OPERATIONS

Monday, September 29, 2014

None

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

G-IV: Is scheduled to fly a GPS dropsonde evaluation mission in coordination with the NASA’s UAS Global Hawk. Take off for the G-IV is set for 10:15 AM Eastern for an 1 hr and 50 min flight to and from MacDill Air Force Base. The coordinated flight will be a rectangular pattern over the Gulf of Mexico. The purpose of the flight is to validate the mini Global Hawk dropsondes with the G-IV dropsondes. No HRD scientists will be on this flight.

 …………………………………………………………………….

For the latest information about tropical cyclones and other weather systems, please visit the NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center web site at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

To access updates on IFEX and other HRD activities via Facebook, Twitter, or RSS feed, check out the HRD home page at
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd

To directly access updates on IFEX HFP Operations via our WordPress blog on the web, check the site
https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/category/ifex-hurricane-field-program/

DISCLAIMER: The above discussion is intended to provide a brief summary of recent and future HRD Hurricane Field Program Operations. Any use of this material beyond its original intent is prohibited without permission of the HRD Director. Media inquiries should be directed to Erica Rule (305-361-4541) or Erica.Rule@noaa.gov, Evan Forde (305-361-4327) or Evan.Forde@noaa.gov, Monica Allen (301-734-1123) or Monica.Allen@noaa.gov.

HRD seminar – Jian-Wen Bao, ESRL/PSD – 24 September 2014

Jian-Wen presented a seminar on “Microphysics Parameterization Evaluation: An NWP Model Critic’s Perspective”.

Abstract

Despite the fact that microphysics parameterization schemes used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models can be as complex as being capable of resolving the evolution of hydrometeor size spectra, operational centers still cannot computationally afford to run any NWP models with spectrum-resolving schemes for daily weather prediction.  To strike an optimal balance between computational cost and physical effect, there is a need to understand what minimal complexity of microphysics parameterizations is required in operational NWP models that are run at affordable resolutions.  To this end, we have been working with our NCEP colleagues to identify whether or not the microphysics schemes currently used in NOAA’s operational NWP models are complex enough to enable us to use these models for high-resolution prediction of severe weather events in the near future. 

We started the work with a study in which the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to investigate the impact of parameterized warm-rain processes in four widely-used bulk microphysics parameterization schemes on the model-simulated tropical cyclone (TC) development.  The schemes investigated, ranging from a single-moment simple 3-category scheme to a complex double-moment 6-category scheme, produce different TC intensification rates and average vertical hydrometeor distributions, as well as different accumulated precipitation. Hydrometeor budget analysis of the four schemes indicates that the assumed pathways to the production of frozen hydrometeors are quite sensitive to the amount of available super-cooled rain water and, thus, the uncertainties in the parameterized warm-rain processes can affect the intensification and structure of the model-simulated tropical cyclone.  Results from this study strongly suggest that the advantage of double-moment formulations can be overshadowed by the uncertainties in the spectral definition of individual hydrometeor categories and spectrum-dependent microphysical processes.

A video recording of the presentation is available on the anonymous ftp site:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/blog/seminars/2014/Bao_HRD_seminar_20140924.mp4

Bao presentation

Bao presentation

HRD seminar – Robert Black, AOML/HRD – 23 September 2014

Bob presented a seminar on “Basic Hurricane Microphysics (or, why I don’t like model output ice concentrations and distributions)”.

Abstract

We have flown hurricanes for decades, and above the melting level from 1978 – 1992. What have we learned, and how can we use that knowledge to improve the numerical models?

If Hurricanes have an eyewall, they all have an extensive area of stratiform precipitation outside the eye, but storms that do not have a strong eyewall can be convective indeed. Model hurricanes produce a strong eyewall, but they do not create the external stratiform area that is always present in a natural storm. Furthermore, they do not simulate the eyewall replacement cycle that occurs naturally in low shear environments. One potential problem (not necessarily related to the microphysics) is the occurrence of scattered “popcorn” convection outside the eyewall. These cells propagate outward singly and do not form rain bands. All microphysics schemes exhibit this convection, and the Thompson scheme produces the best looking results.

A video recording of the presentation is available on the anonymous ftp site:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/blog/seminars/2014/Black_HRD_seminar_20140923.wmv

Black seminar

Black seminar

 

Paper on how the Developmental Testbed Center facilitates the use of HWRF by the community released online by the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Screen Shot 2014-09-29 at 9.42.30 AM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The paper can be accessed at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00093.1.

10th Anniversary of Hurricane Jeanne

Jeanne_At_Landfall

Infrared satellite picture of Hurricane Jeanne at Florida landfall (NOAA)

On the night of Sept. 25, 2004, Hurricane Jeanne made landfall at Sewall’s Point, FL, just three weeks after Hurricane Frances came ashore near the same location.  It was the last of four hurricanes to affect Florida that year, being preceded by Charley, Frances, and Ivan.

Jeanne_2004_track

Hurricane Jeanne’s track (Wikipedia)

Jeanne began as a tropical wave which organized into a tropical depression prior to passing through the Lesser Antilles.  Once west of the islands, it was upgraded to a tropical storm and then a hurricane after it made landfall in Puerto Rico.  It skimmed along the north shore of Hispañola, which weakened it back down to a depression as it dumped tremendous rains on the mountains there.  Over 3000 people died from flash floods and landslides.  Turning north and moving over the Turks and Caicos, Jeanne seemed destined to recurve out to sea and do no more harm.  But a high pressure ridge to its north stalled and then forced it into a clockwise loop.  During this maneuver, Jeanne regained strength and began heading westward.  As it struck Florida, the hurricane achieved its peak power, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (195 km/hr).  Once ashore, Jeanne turned northwest and traveled up Florida and across Georgia before incorporating into a cold front as an extratropical low.  All along its track, Jeanne produced heavy rains and flooding.

 

Hurricane_Jeanne_25_sept_1615Z_full

Hurricane Jeanne near its peak. MODIS satellite (NASA)

Damage from Jeanne was hard to assess since clean-up after Frances had not been complete. One estimate of US$7 billion would make Jeanne the 15th costliest hurricane on record.  It was certainly the final sour note in Florida’s hurricane sonata for that year.

HRD participated in ten NOAA missions into Jeanne, after it had made its loop and began to intensify.  Some of the research to come out of Jeanne:

  • Environmental Ingredients for Supercells and Tornadoes within Hurricane Ivan Adam K. Baker, Matthew D. Parker, Matthew D. Eastin Weather and Forecasting Volume 24, Issue 1 (February 2009) pp. 223-244
  • On Momentum Transport and Dissipative Heating during Hurricane Landfalls Jun A. Zhang, Ping Zhu, Forrest J. Masters, Robert F. Rogers, Frank D. Marks Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Volume 68, Issue 6 (June 2011) pp. 1397-1404
  • A Comparison of Adaptive Observing Guidance for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones S. J. Majumdar, S. D. Aberson, C. H. Bishop, R. Buizza, M. S. Peng, C. A. Reynolds Monthly Weather Review Volume 134, Issue 9 (September 2006) pp. 2354-2372
  • Eye and Eyewall Traits as Determined with the NOAA WP-3D Lower-Fuselage Radar Carl E. Barnes, Gary M. Barnes Monthly Weather Review Volume 142, Issue 9 (September 2014) pp. 3393-3417
  • Tropical Cyclone Destructive Potential by Integrated Kinetic Energy Mark D. Powell, Timothy A. Reinhold Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 88, Issue 4 (April 2007) pp. 513-526
  • THIRTY YEARS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RESEARCH WITH THE NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT Sim D. Aberson, Michael L. Black, Robert A. Black, Joseph J. Cione, Christopher W. Landsea, Frank D. Marks Jr., Robert W. Burpee Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 87, Issue 8 (August 2006) pp. 1039-1055
  • A Parametric Model for Predicting Hurricane Rainfall Manuel Lonfat, Robert Rogers, Timothy Marchok, Frank D. Marks Jr. Monthly Weather Review Volume 135, Issue 9 (September 2007) pp. 3086-3097
  • On the Limits of Estimating the Maximum Wind Speeds in Hurricanes David S. Nolan, Jun A. Zhang, Eric W. Uhlhorn Monthly Weather Review Volume 142, Issue 8 (August 2014) pp. 2814-2837
  • Estimating Maximum Surface Winds from Hurricane Reconnaissance Measurements Mark D. Powell, Eric W. Uhlhorn, Jeffrey D. Kepert Weather and Forecasting Volume 24, Issue 3 (June 2009) pp. 868-883
  • Turbulence Structure of the Hurricane Boundary Layer between the Outer Rainbands Jun A. Zhang, William M. Drennan, Peter G. Black, Jeffrey R. French Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Volume 66, Issue 8 (August 2009) pp. 2455-2467
  • Wavelet Analyses of Turbulence in the Hurricane Surface Layer during Landfalls Ping Zhu, Jun A. Zhang, Forrest J. Masters Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Volume 67, Issue 12 (December 2010) pp. 3793-3805
  • Air–Sea Enthalpy and Momentum Exchange at Major Hurricane Wind Speeds Observed during CBLAST Michael M. Bell, Michael T. Montgomery, Kerry A. Emanuel Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Volume 69, Issue 11 (November 2012) pp. 3197-3222